Thanks for the usefull post.
You just have to make a judgement call. If they are in pretty deep with a one or two strong recruiting programs, it may not be worth the time to go after them. If a recruit is still in their "Top 10" stage, you've proabably still got a shot. It also depends on how many stars your program is. If you're fortunate enough to be recruiting with a six star, you've always got a shot with any recruit.