Compared to shooters I would definitely say no. While shooters were pretty popular last gen, the popularity has increased even more this gen thus decreasing the popularity of everything else.
Yeah, Forza 3 can be an example. Shooters like COD play a big part in why other games released in November get sales that aren't as good as expected.
With sports sim games though you have to play through the game for a good number of minutes... with shooters though you can play through one game in much less time so yeah, that's why I say they are more pick up and play (when it comes to online). Don't get me wrong though... I still think sports games are very pick up and play.
Anyways most of the same games that Madden 09 was competing with last year are still on the list now along with their sequels/spin-offs. So yeah... all I'm saying is that that should be taken into consideration.