Some Testing on Imported QBs

[eraserx13]

Ok. So, I did some testing on importing players from NCAA and into Madden in order to find some logic to it since I have done multiple imports, using luvtotha9s NCAA roster and can never get a "franchise QB" that is characterized by a high 70s/low 80s OVR and a Potential A rating. Despite the fact that Locker is the highest rated QB in NCAA, he comes in fairly low and is barely an NFL QB.

Granted, "franchise QBs" should be far and few between IMO and should not happen too frequently. If you look at all of the QBs taken in the 1st round in the last 30 years, you will find the success rate fairly low (about less than 10 percent). In the last 12 years, the 2 of the top 3 QBs in the NFL (Manning, Brady, Brees) were taken after the first round. So, understand that high OVRs in NCAA should not translate to high OVRs in Madden. Also, for the sake of keeping balance within the game, it only makes sense to have a "franchise QB" enter the league when either a current "franchise QB" like Manning or Brady start to regress or retire. As you know, retirement in Madden for these guys can take many years.

In any event and regardless of my thoughts on the matter, I wanted to try and come up with the relevant factors that lead to a "franchise QB".

By using Team Builder on a fictional team, I created the following 5 QBs with a 99 OVR in NCAA that had similar characteristics save for one. The idea is to isolate the factors that determine what is more relevant. Also, with the exception of the first QB, my goal was to get the OVR close to or exactly at 99 which explains how I arrived at some of the ratings. In other words, there are no “excessive ratings” that could inflate or distort the test.

"Mister Perfect QB" 99 OVR - 99 AWR, 99 THP, 99 THA 6'3" 215lbs (running abilities in the 70s)
"The Franchise QB" 99 OVR - 94 AWR, 94 THP, 94 THA 6'3" 215 lbs (running abilities in the 70s)
"Small Franchise QB" Identical to "The Franchise" except for his size, 5'6" 165 lbs (running abilities in the 70s)
"Tools QB" - 99 OVR with 75 AWR, 99 THP 99 THA 6'3" 215 lbs (running abilities in the 70s)
“Inaccurate QB” – 99 OVR with 99 AWR, 99 THP, and 85 THA " 215 lbs (running abilities in the 70s)
"Game Manager QB" - 99 OVR with 99 AWR, 83 THP 99 AWR 6"3" 215 lbs (running abilities in the 70s)

I created the draft file and imported it several times into the same Madden franchise file and came away with some interesting results:

"Mister Perfect" Averages with Min/Max in Parenthesis vs NCAA ratings
82 OVR (72 - 91 range) vs 99 OVR in NCAA
A Potential (75% were A Potential with the remaining as B)
60 AWR (49 - 69 range) vs 99 AWR in NCAA
96 THP (93 - 99 range) vs 99 THP in NCAA
80 THA (76 - 86 range) vs 99 THA in NCAA

"The Franchise" Averages
75 OVR (67-85 range) vs 99 OVR in NCAA
B Potential (25% had an A POT with the rest as B)
58 AWR (41 - 68 range) vs 94 AWR in NCAA
92 THP (90 – 93 range) vs 94 THP in NCAA
81 THA (73 – 87 range) vs 94 THA in NCAA

"Small Franchise QB" Averages
64 OVR (61 – 69 range) vs 99 OVR in NCAA
B/C Potential (50% had B POT with the other half as C)
44 AWR (39 – 51 range) vs 99 AWR in NCAA
89 THP (85 – 92 range) vs 99 THP in NCAA
84 THA (82 – 85 range) vs 99 THA in NCAA

“Inaccurate QB” Averages
62 OVR (61 – 62 range) vs 99 OVR in NCAA
C Potential (100% C)
46 AWR (43 – 49 range) vs 99 AWR in NCAA
91 THP (85 – 95 range) vs 99 THP in NCAA
67 THA (56 – 79 range) vs 85 THA in NCAA

“Tools QB” Averages
72 OVR (67 – 77 range) vs 99 OVR in NCAA
B Potential (100% B)
41 AWR (36 – 48 range) vs 75 AWR in NCAA
97 THP (92 – 99 range) vs 99 THP in NCAA
87 THA (80 – 94 range) vs 99 THA in NCAA

“Game Manager QB” Averages
58 OVR (57 – 61 range) vs 99 OVR in NCAA
C Potential (100% C)
51 AWR (44 – 54 range) vs 99 AWR in NCAA
76 THP (72 – 78 range) vs 83 THP in NCAA
84 THA (76 – 92 range) vs 99 THA in NCAA

So looking at the results, there is some consistency in the import which is contrary to the common belief.

“Mister Perfect” and “The Franchise” build had the potential for getting that prototypical NFL QB. As with the NFL and with anything else, high reward entails high risk. Not all of the builds started off with a high OVR.

Smaller QBs identical in NCAA ratings to the aforementioned two, had lower ratings in Madden. So size plays a MAJOR factor in import. Makes sense given that there aren’t too many NFL QBs below 6 feet.

Game Mangers without a strong arm and QBs who have poor accuracy have terrible ratings. The Ty Detmers and Cade McKnowns of the college world who win and put up great stats in college can’t make it in the NFL.

So to sum up and in order to get that prototypical QB from NCAA, the QB has to be the complete package for the most part. I would shoot for AWR, THP, and THA to all be above 94. At the very least, THP and THA needs to be in the mid to upper 90s. That type of QB fits the B Potential, Backup mold. Also, the QB needs to have prototypical size so 6’2” and above will improve your chances. The kiss of death of a college QB is size and either Low Accuracy or No Arm Strength. There’s not much wiggle room there according to my sample test.

Again, there’s a lot of variability even if you have a college QB who has all of the tools. If its not to your liking, I would suggest to continue to re-import the draft class until you see that perfect college QB at the top of the Potential Ranking when you scout. If its not top 10, then there is a good chance he could either have a low OVR and/or B Potential. Be patient since the probabilites work in your favor. Though, just keep in mind to check your expectations in the number of top flight QBs in a given draft. If you are shooting for realism, keep in mind that franchise QBs don’t come around every often. Here’s an excerp from the bleacher report that gives more details:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/152574-drafting-a-quarterback-in-the-first-round-is-it-worth-the-risk

“Between 1970 and 2006, 577 quarterbacks have been drafted by NFL teams. Of those 577, 78, or 13.5 percent, were drafted in the first round. More quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round than any other round in the draft. Of those first round picks, 31, or 40 percent, have played in the Pro Bowl at least once in their careers.”

If you do the math, that’s a success rate of 5.4 percent of QBs drafted that go on to reach Hawaii at least once in their careers. A pretty low number if you ask me. So seeing one or two QBs, worthy of the top of the draft, come ever couple of years is pretty realistic. However, realism sometimes isn’t always fun. So, do what you will in your franchise and use this as a guide to get that coveted franchise QB.

[michapop9]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

peyton manning was a number one overall pick in 98 draft (might of been 99)

[eraserx13]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

peyton manning was a number one overall pick in 98 draft (might of been 99)

Whoops. I mistyped. Ill fix that.

[zav]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

Great test great Results. I have found than Height is important as well. Ryan Mallet tends to be the best QB for me every time. anyway here is where your test becomes flawed hate to say it but its true. Reupload the draft class from NCAA then try it again. You proved a few things but you missed on testing things NCAA side you should have made 3 copies of the draft then seen if the ranges matched up anyway

[thejackal25]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

Very interesting results. Impressed with the work you put into gathering this data. Any chance you'll be conducting similar studies with other positions? It would be great if we could manipulate draft classes in such a way to limit the first round grades given to FBs, Cs, and Gs, and increase it for DEs, LBs, Ts, QBs, and WRs. Possibly even raise and lower certain positions enough so there aren't 20 kickers, punters, and fullbacks in every draft class and more players at the primary positions. It's just weird to get into the 6th and 7th round and be completely out of WRs or DBs to select. Once again, great work with this.

[zav]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

Found something interesting... if you clone a player (i made 9 jake lockers...) they all come out with almost the exact same potential. I in 12 reuploads ever got even one player to hop between the lockers no matter where on the potential board they were and when we did the draft low and behold the ratings ( i only did two) 79,78,74,73,71,70,70,70,66 the first time and 73,73,72,70,66,65,65,64,61 i changed each lockers weight by one pound to identify them and the only difference in order was that locker 5 and locker 3 switched places the second draft which proves your range theory but gives me some serious pause about the system because there is no reason for them to be this close all the time. I had them ALL at washington and the only one that played was locker 2

[Nyy26Bosox7]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

its alll random i did it with ryan mallet jake locker casey keenum terrelle pryor and it is completely random. I did get a potential in 2 of the 10 times i did it. the time i did that terrelle came out 90 other locker was 80(which is good)

[zav]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

its not both me and him can confirm that

[eraserx13]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

Found something interesting... if you clone a player (i made 9 jake lockers...) they all come out with almost the exact same potential. I in 12 reuploads ever got even one player to hop between the lockers no matter where on the potential board they were and when we did the draft low and behold the ratings ( i only did two) 79,78,74,73,71,70,70,70,66 the first time and 73,73,72,70,66,65,65,64,61 i changed each lockers weight by one pound to identify them and the only difference in order was that locker 5 and locker 3 switched places the second draft which proves your range theory but gives me some serious pause about the system because there is no reason for them to be this close all the time. I had them ALL at washington and the only one that played was locker 2

That's an interesting find which gives credence to one of my theories that the ratings from the imports are all relative. Meaning if you had 30 "Perfect" QBs, they would all be rated differently in order to avoid having a stacked draft. The different QBs would probably form a normal distribution. Its kinda silly but understandable since you have to maintain some balance. Since ratings are identical, then the logic probably defers to size in order to differentiate. It kinda makes sense in away where if you had two identical atheletes in terms of skills, you would default to the bigger guy.

I did similar tests with RBs and MLBs and the results where not as variable as QB. A stud RB or MLB in college translated pretty well into the pros. The only interesting find is that size plays a big role in RB. I have found that a RB who is under 5'9" and is small will come in with a B potential 75% of the time as opposed to a RB with the exact same rating that is bigger with prototypical size will come in as an A potential 75% of the time.

[football5680]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

good thread.

[zav]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

That's an interesting find which gives credence to one of my theories that the ratings from the imports are all relative. Meaning if you had 30 "Perfect" QBs, they would all be rated differently in order to avoid having a stacked draft. The different QBs would probably form a normal distribution. Its kinda silly but understandable since you have to maintain some balance. Since ratings are identical, then the logic probably defers to size in order to differentiate. It kinda makes sense in away where if you had two identical atheletes in terms of skills, you would default to the bigger guy.

I did similar tests with RBs and MLBs and the results where not as variable as QB. A stud RB or MLB in college translated pretty well into the pros. The only interesting find is that size plays a big role in RB. I have found that a RB who is under 5'9" and is small will come in with a B potential 75% of the time as opposed to a RB with the exact same rating that is bigger with prototypical size will come in as an A potential 75% of the time.

RBs do translate well Mark Ingram and Demarco Murray are always top 10 picks

[cletusdog]

Re: Some Testing on Imported QBs

the flaw is that QB is a PREMIUM position and more of the top guys should be top 10 projections.
they seem to be few and far between.
other obvious important positions that should carry more weight are cb, LT and D Line.

great study you performed. I'd be curious to see similar tests at other positions.