[adembroski]

I always feel like I have to point out the inherent differences between video game "potential" and real life "potential".

In real life, when we use the word potential, we're talking about the football world's perception of how good a guy could become, just as ratings are the football world's perception of how good a guy is.

In the video game, these aren't perceptions, they're concrete, measurable facts.

The ratings, and potential, are both abstractions. I don't know about you guys, but I don't have the time to spend 40 hours to spend in practice mode before every game to determine who my best players are. I also don't have the time to pour over replays of NCAA 11 games in order to figure out who I should draft. Abstraction is a necessary part of sports video games.

So, is it unrealistic to have a potential grade? Sure, in a sense, but it has to be understood that in real life all we can go on is perception.

Two examples; Jake Plummer and Kurt Warner.

Jake Plummer was perceived to be a solid NFL prospect with off-the-charts potential. His strengths were a strong competitive drive, outstanding leadership, good accuracy, and a knack for making things happen when a play broke down. I'd say in modern Madden terms, he'd be built as a 76 OVR rookie with an "A" potential...

In reality, Plummer was mistake prone and never quite got a grip on running an NFL offense. His knack for making things happen when a play broke down in college turned into a tendency to try to do too much and he became a turnover machine. 76 was probably a fair rating, but it didn't go up much. I'd say he probably hit about an 83 or so his one good year in Denver. Otherwise, he never achieved that potential.

Does that mean he never had an "A" potential? No, it means he never reached it.

(for the record, I would argue that JaMarcus Russell never had an "A" potential to begin with, he was just overrated)

Now Kurt Warner... Undrafted, unknown. Had anyone taken the time to figure him out, we'd probably know he had solid accuracy and adequate arm strength from his play in the AFL, but could he adjust to the NFL game? There was no reason to believe he'd develop into anything special... "F" potential, probably a 65 overall.

Then Trent Green got hurt, and we saw the real Kurt Warner. Now, here's the key; we thought Kurt Warner was a 65-F. He wasn't. He was a 99-A... our perception was wrong this time. He didn't "progress" over the course of that season, he was already that good, and he proved it over the course of his career.

There we have the problematic difference between video games and real life. We have this information, concrete and indisputable, at our fingertips in video games. Oh, what NFL coaches would do to be able to look at a spreadsheet and know at a glance.

But how do you fix it? Do you hide all the ratings? I don't wanna spend hours in practice mode just to decide who should start.

I say we keep the ratings, and potential, but make them "perceptions".

I would say that 60% of players end up being right around what they're perceived to be. Another 30% are close to that. The final 10% are either far better or far worse than we expect. These numbers are off the top of my head, don't go doing a study based on that, just throwing out an example.

So, if we can look at a players ratings and know that they might not be right, then we are forced to take some time to look over players (all of the sudden, preseason has meaning in Madden!) and get a feel for how good they really are. But we want them to be accurate most of the time... otherwise we ignore them, and we're in the same position as if there weren't any.

There should be an "X Factor" option in Madden's franchise mode... the same that existed in Front Office Football. This automatically adjusts a significant but not overwhelming number of players around the league for better or worse, for ratings or potential, at random, so if a user decides he wants some uncertainty to his roster, he can add that.

Anyways, I'm tired and babbling at this point. I've thought this through far too much, but maybe tomorrow I'll post my ridiculously long "plan" for potential and progression tomorrow just to give you guys something to read.