Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

[NEOPARADIGM]

Talking offline Dynasty here.

I'm controlling Michigan: B+ offense, C+ defense.

Week 1: W 52-6 over Western Michigan.

Now, in week 2, I host Oklahoma State, and take a 31-14 halftime lead, at which point I get bit by the "are my sliders too easy?" bug (consciously noting that I've outscored the CPU 83-20 through six quarters) and proceed to lose the game, 52-48.

Week 3, I'm on the road against Indiana, and I fall behind 21-0 in the first quarter. I go on to lose the game, 48-35. (Got the score wrong in the "Frustrating Loss" thread, for anyone who's paying attention. 48-35 is the correct final.)

Week 4, I just played tonight, hosting Eastern Michigan. I fall behind 7-0 just 0:48 into the game, and eventually trail 28-10 at the half. But here's the thing: I get it together and win the game, 36-35.

Okay, so, to the point: I can't help but notice a pattern here. I'm wondering, had I not lost all competitive control against Oklahoma State, would I have lost the Indiana game? If I had gone on to beat OSU, say, 66-20, would I have fallen behind Indiana 21-0? Or do you suppose that could be literally a continuation of the fact I allowed 38 second-half points to OSU?

And notice that I only allowed 7 second-half points to EMU after I "got it together." My prediction, in turn, is that I should be fairly competent on D for at least the first quarter of my next game (opposed to falling behind 21-0, e.g.).

Also note, I'm not presenting this as any sort of "comeback AI" nonsense or "predetermined outcome" thing; rather I'd suggest that, if there is indeed game-to-game momentum, it's flippin' awesome.

Just wondering if others have noticed something similar, or, more specifically, if this can in fact explain some of the "predetermined outcome" etc. talk we get around here.

Again, if the game is in fact working on a game-to-game momentum system, I think that's awesome: it simulates teams watching film on you and spotting your weaknesses, opposed to previous iterations where if one team exposed you one week as fraudulent stopping the run, e.g., the next team would still try to throw on you all game, etc.

I'm starting to think, seriously, that, for instance, guys who can't run the ball can't run the ball because they haven't been able to run the ball! Ya know? Guys who can't sack the quarterback, aren't sacking the quarterback, because they never sack the quarterback! And so on.

I mean, if I'm wrong, whatever, but, it's not just these four games I'm pointing to (sample size!), it's more of a I've-been-playing-this-game-for-months-and-this-makes-sense hypothesis.

Anything?

[JPCaveman13]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

The joking side of me wants to say that's because you're using michigan...lol

Seriously though, I have sorta noticed what you are talking about. It didn't really sink in until I stumbled on this but looking back, I see what you are saying. I have noticed a bit of momentum game-to-game. I had one game where I upset a top team and then came out a little flat the next game against a lesser opponent, having that "hangover effect." Plus I've had a couple games where I just came out completely on fire after an off game. But I do see it a little in the dynasty. I remember in the slightly older versions having a confidence level and that would vary dependent on how each player played. There is probably some facet of that coding still in the game.

But one thing I have noticed is some of the littler things like if I keep working the run throughout the game, it tends to get easier as the game goes on. Or how if I keep working short routes for the better part of my passing game, the DBs tend to fall for a double move with a pump fake. Even if I stall offensively with a couple of three-and-outs, I have a tougher time getting things moving until I can sustain a couple of scoring drives and then it will balance back out.

[NEOPARADIGM]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

^ Right on.

And yeah, if nothing else, I'd suggest that if there is in fact game-t0-game momentum, it explains away a lot of little gripes guys have.

I mean, for one thing, bluntly, it explains why guys who blow on defense experience a lot of annoying crap while playing defense (robo-QB, etc.), while guys who are good on defense don't.

Like, the worse you are on defense, the worse you defense performs, not just play to play or quarter to quarter, but game to game. Sounds self-evident, I know, but in context ... like I said, it would explain some things.

[Juiceman612]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

I think there is game-to-game momentum. I play on default sliders All-American with the Gophers and I'm 2-8. But very close to 5-5 with 3 brutal OT losses to USC, Northwestern, and Purdue. But that's beside the point kind of. When I play a top 25 team I get crushed. I can get something going at some point in the game, but Ohio St., Wisc, PSU, they all crush me in the end. And they should. The Gophers are horrible.

The one thing that I have noticed is that the more conference losses that happen the harder it becomes to sustain any progress the next game. Same with rival losses. Maybe that's in my head...I don't know. But, last game against Mich St. I got shut out. That was after losing the last oh, 4 games. I can't remember the last time I got shut out in a football game; Madden, NCAA, or other. It got to the point where my WR's were dropping wide open passes. My QB fumbled the first play of the game on a roll out, and I haven't been able to stop the opposing team on 3rd down for 2-3 games now. I'm not horrible at defense although I probably should adjust some sliders as default All-American seems to be too much for me even with the horrid Gophers team. I don't think there is an AI issue. I just think for some reason my guys are all sluggish after multiple losses and deflating OT losses and the other team is zipping around with momentum. I think momentum plays a big role and changes in-game and game-to-game. Just my thoughts. (edit: for a reference point, I have no issues winning games in play now on all-american default sliders with better teams. So, probably not too much of a skill issue).

[GGGswim]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

There's got to be something to this thought from y'all.

Breezed through first 7 games heading into an away stretch of games at LSU, FLA and UGA.
Defensively held LSU in check (scoreboard-wise, however they did pile up some ydg) but struggled offensively until, like many of you have said, started to finally sustain a few drives then the ball started rolling downhill.
Against FLA -- a team I'm set to play in the SEC championship game, and scared sh!tless about the prospect -- the 'roll' that LSU's passing game seemed to initiate rolled like I've never seen during my 7 'seasons'. My D, ranked #1, simply couldn't stop them. They threw a ba-jillion 8-10 yard underneath patterns and no matter what I tried (man, zone, 5DB, spy) I couldn't stop them. I won by outlasting them 55-48, forgetting to mention that I picked off their 1st two passes of the game and punched both opportunities in for a 14-0 lead not even halfway into the 1st.
Next up in Athens, (who carried a 4-5 record into the game aginst my #1 Auburn) they did the same thing as FLA. What saved me was the O-line wasn't as good and my amazing line was able to get pressure allowing my strong secondary that significant 1-less second they needed to maintain contact to be close enough to knock down a lot of balls (lost my A-A senior FS for the rest of his career with a broken tailbone -- I sh!t you not -- in that game, tho).

Once "someone" (the AI) figured out how to get to me, I see it every week, now (remember that SEC game coming up?). Even an unbelievably bad UNLV team, tried this, but their personnel was obviously not good enough and their O-line was so bad I had 14 sacks, a DT backed up into coverage and snared an INT, and they finished with -25 total yards of offense -- but the point was not lost that they tried the same thing that LSU, FLA and UGA did.

[TimLawNYC]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

Assuming there is something to this theory (and it certainly seems possible), how awesome would it be if EA also gave us some gameplay mechanic to help us, as "coaches" influence this momentum? Like some way that we could try to motivate our players or institute some new gameplan at halftime or in between games in an effort to minimize the effects of bad momentum or to keep good momentum going. This would be great because momentum management is a big part of what great coaches do.

[JPCaveman13]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

Assuming there is something to this theory (and it certainly seems possible), how awesome would it be if EA also gave us some gameplay mechanic to help us, as "coaches" influence this momentum? Like some way that we could try to motivate our players or institute some new gameplan at halftime or in between games in an effort to minimize the effects of bad momentum or to keep good momentum going. This would be great because momentum management is a big part of what great coaches do.

I remember one game had that. I believe it was either 07 or 08 where when you called a timeout, you could "coach up" a section of the team (DL, LBs, DBs) and they could potentially receive a small ratings boost for a few plays.

[Deegeezy]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

Sounds like something similar to placebo effect to me.

[KingV2k3]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

I've noticed in my SMU Dynasty, that "trap games" definately exist once or twice a year, where the CPU plays "lights out" if I'm coming off a few consecutive wins or an underdog / road win...

I also noticed that when going into a game against a conference opponent that has consequences in the standings (either short or long term) are tougher games...

I, for one, really like this aspect b/c it's "realistic" in the sense that the games should have some "Any Given Saturday" (sic) factor...

If the result was always based on team / player ratings, HFA, etc. it would not represent the "randomness" of sports...

I would like some feature where I "spend" some Coach Points or something to warn my players about upcoming trap-type games or games that have a extra significance in the standings or to the program...

Last example:

Had Tulsa (who I was in peril of being tied with in the standings if I lost at home) down 28-6 at the half, got the kick to start the second half and marched down the field for, a score thart could have iced the game...

I threw on 3rd and goal, and (TOTALLY MY BAD READ) threw a pick 6, to get them back in the game...

Suddenly it was as if Tulsa collectively thought "Hey, wait a second, WE can win this game" and went heywire for the remainder of the game...

If it were not for a missed two point conversion and a turnover on downs just out of FG range, I would have lost, what suddenly became a "nail biter"...

No "comeback" or "robo", just the kind of mistake that can lead to a major shift in momentum, very much like RL...

Good stuff!

[Deegeezy]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

I do think momentum exists in the game. It is just no longer shown via a lame meter.

I notice that when on the road and the CPU has a nice string of plays, my guys start to fumble, drop passes, etc.

[chemicalxv]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

I don't know, I just threw a topic out there.

I'm in the 2nd year of my Tulane dynasty and I scheduled Miami in Miami because I wanted to see the smoke entrance (it wasn't that impressive).

Anyways they were ranked #11, I was like #59 in the preseason rankings. I didn't really expect to win, especially after I only beat one of those FCS teams 35-7.

Anyways I ended up winning 41-21. Total domination. They had ~350 yards of offense (maybe even less than 300, can't remember exactly). Miami had 3 drives where they just marched downfield at will (like the CPU does sometimes) but that was it. I answered them every time. It was 24-7 at halftime. I wasn't worried about losing the game at all.

However I'm trying to play my next game (home against Washington) and Washington is pretty much imposing their will against me like I did against Miami. I just don't understand it. Their offense is WORSE than Miami's, AND it's a home game for me. I've stopped better RBs than they have (85 OVR/82 OVR) yet as I type this they sit at 31 carries for 315 yards. Yes, that's absolutely ridiculous. That's a first down EVERY TIME they run.

Anyways I've restarted the game a couple times to see if it was one of those seemingly random "You're going to lose this game" types when you start a game sometime. But this happens EVERY TIME. I'm seriously sitting here looking at this as a predetermined loss because there's no other way to describe it.

[chemicalxv]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

Also when I say "imposing their will" I mean it.

3/4 of the games aren't even competitive. In one of them they were up 38-7 at halftime. Another it was 42-14.

[rhinoceros]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

This definitely existed in Madden 08. The players' mood would change based on a few factors -- contracts, their place on the depth chart -- but wins and losses had the by far the biggest influence. Players in bad moods underperformed in the games and players in good moods saw their awareness skyrocket.

There isn't any hard evidence in NCAA this year, but I feel like my players don't play as well after a loss and my MAC team was almost invincible after winning ten games in a row.

[Jr.]

Re: Query: Game-to-Game Momentum?

This all sounds great, but don't you think this is something that EA would've promoted like crazy considering the bad publicity they've been getting the last few years from hardcore gamers? I feel like if this was designed to be a part of dynasties, we would have heard about it.

As for myself, I'm not really attentive enough, nor have a good enough memory to see patterns throughout a season of how teams are playing me. So I can't say whether I agree with this theory or not. It sounds pretty awesome, but like an earlier poster said, I think this is more placebo effect than a hidden code that affects performance game-to-game