Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotaku)

[pietasterp]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I think a lot of people are really over-exaggerating the disadvantage that new football IPs will experience. Sure, Madden has been researching simulation football for 5 more years than its competitors, but it's actual additions (Lead-Tackle, Cone-Passing, Gameflow, Pro-Tak, etc.) certainly haven't been indicative of 5+ years of research development. There was a lot of fluff and slow advancement within that span. If 2k discovers some kind of new technology by 2013 (like an intelligent way to merge their tackle technology with elements of Europhoria), they can make up the technology gap in an instant. Updating all the uniforms and stadiums will take about 1 year though. But if the essence of the game is ground-breaking, it's a sacrifice that can be legitimately made.

I mean, don't get me wrong. EA certainly has the advantage so far. But there's plenty of room for game-changing situations to arise.

I think the issue isn't that another studio couldn't make a technologically equivalent (if not superior) football game, it's that the enormous amount of pop culture cache that Madden enjoys is, at this point in time, borderline insurmountable.

What I mean when I say developing a new football IP would take an incredible amount of investment is that everything, from building the game from scratch to marketing it to the public, would be an uphill battle since to the general public, football videogame = Madden. I think we keep forgetting that we're pretty much the only ones that pay attention to a football game being good; the other 99% of Madden buyers are doing it because that's what people do. And frankly, even the hyper-critical OS crowd all buy the darn game anyway. If all people cared about was the quality of the game, Madden 05 would not have outsold NFL2K5 by such a ridiculous margin (regardless of what you think of either game, I don't think it can be reasonably argued that one title was 5x better or whatever than the other one). But marketing and hype are king, thus the Madden phenomenon.

[dickey1331]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I hope you were joking. All of your examples just show how competition improves products. NBA 2K11 pushed the envelope to the point where EA couldn't compete and had to back out. Same goes for NHL 11, it was head and shoulders above 2k, so 2k had to take the year off. And you'd have to be crazy to think MLB The Show didn't force 2K to step up it's game from 2k9 to 2k10.

Ok and you’re still stuck with one company. What if someone doesn’t like NBA 2K and liked Live/Elite but now they don’t get to play it because it doesn’t exist anymore. Competition should make both products better.

[capn_razzamataz]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Ok and you’re still stuck with one company. What if someone doesn’t like NBA 2K and liked Live/Elite but now they don’t get to play it because it doesn’t exist anymore. Competition should make both products better.

I kind of get what you're trying to say, but that example doesn't work very well because the Live/Elite franchise isn't dead; they're just taking a year "off" to improve/refine their game. 2k kept improving at a rate that EA couldn't keep up with. EA took a gamble and tried something new and innovative, but couldn't get the game to a releasable state within one year/cycle. The person that that likes EA's product more will get their new game; just a year later and far more polished and complete than if EA had released it on time.

Even if EA did drop out of the basketball videogame market altogether, it would've been because 2k constantly improved their game at a rate that EA couldn't keep up with; not because 2k inked a deal with the NBA.

EDIT: To add to my last point: if EA (or anybody else) ever wanted to enter the basketball videogame market, they would be able to do so at any point unlike the NFL deal.

[SageInfinite]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Yea people forget NBA Live used to constantly outsell NBA 2k, despite 2k having the better game almost every year. It wasn't until this gen(I think 2k9 actually) that NBA 2k started to also win the sales war. Who knows if this would've happened with Madden/2K as well.

[RGiles36]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I have a strong feeling that when this console generation is over, the exclusive license will also end. The license is so darn expensive; nobody, but EA, is paying for it. The NFL is creating a situation in which they'll have virtually no leverage with the exclusive license because there's only one bidder.

Why do you feel as though the exclusive license will be over w/ this generation? Even if there's only one bidder (EA), why would EA pass up on the opportunity to continue to own the NFL videogame market?

[LiquorLogic]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Why do you feel as though the exclusive license will be over w/ this generation? Even if there's only one bidder (EA), why would EA pass up on the opportunity to continue to own the NFL videogame market?

Because it seems as if EA doesn't want to extend deal, certainly not at the current price, after it expires. This deal has a give and take feel to it: EA gets some relief, due to a possible lock out, and the NFL gets an extra year of security.

If EA is so keen on the license, and attends to keep it, it would be odd for the NFL to ask for an extra year ,when negotiating , if they know that EA wants to extend the deal anyway. Why ask for extra year when EA is going to give that to you regardless ?

Why would EA pass up on the opportunity to continue to own the video game market ? Let me ask you this, when hasn't EA owned the football video game market ? Even when 2k5 was out, EA owned the video game market and outsold 2k5. Madden 05 outsold Madden 11. Why keep paying this outrageous price for the exclusive license when you sold more copies without it ?

Here's my theory, which may change, regarding the history of the exclusive license. EA was in fact scared of the competition, in 2005, so they bought the license. In 2008 when they extended the deal; I believe they did so out of fear of APF 2k9, which is why they inked that deal to get the rights to the retired players and effectively derailed APF 2k9. They also extended the exclusive deal in 2008. Now, who does EA really have to fear ? The last game 2k put out was in 2007. The last NFL game 2k put out came out in 2004. When next gen hits, it will have been six and nine years, respectively, since 2k released a football game. 2k football is dead, and Natural Motion football was stillborn.

Who does EA have to fear that justifies paying for exclusivity ?

[GiantBlue76]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Because it seems as if EA doesn't want to extend deal, certainly not at the current price, after it expires. This deal has a give and take feel to it: EA gets some relief, due to a possible lock out, and the NFL gets an extra year of security.

If EA is so keen on the license, and attends to keep it, it would be odd for the NFL to ask for an extra year ,when negotiating , if they know that EA wants to extend the deal anyway. Why ask for extra year when EA is going to give that to you regardless ?

Why would EA pass up on the opportunity to continue to own the video game market ? Let me ask you this, when hasn't EA owned the football video game market ? Even when 2k5 was out, EA owned the video game market and outsold 2k5. Madden 05 outsold Madden 11. Why keep paying this outrageous price for the exclusive license when you sold more copies without it ?

Here's my theory, which may change, regarding the history of the exclusive license. EA was in fact scared of the competition, in 2005, so they bought the license. In 2008, when they extended the deal, I believe they did so out of fear of APF 2k9, which is why they inked that deal to get the rights to the retired players and effectively derailed APF 2k9. They also extended the exclusive deal in 2008. Now, who does EA really have to fear ? The last game 2k put out was in 2007. The last NFL game 2k put out came out in 2004. When next gen hits, it will have been six and nine years, respectively, since 2k released a football game. 2k football is dead, and Natural Motion football was still born.

Who does EA have to fear that justifies paying for exclusivity ?

That's not really what he's saying. Basically, there really isn't an "exclusive" license anymore. All of the other companies have been eliminated. They have no game to build on, there is no real worthwhile cause to start one. What has essentially happened is the NFL got a TON of money for several years while the competition was put to death. Now that there is no competition, the value of having an "Exclusive" license is gone. EA is completely in the drivers seat now. From a business standpoint this is brilliant. It lowers their cost of production, (no need to push it when you are the only game), the competition is completely wiped out, and now you can basically tell the NFL, "we are the only company equipped to make an NFL game for you, this is our offer, take it or leave it".

[LiquorLogic]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

That's not really what he's saying. Basically, there really isn't an "exclusive" license anymore. All of the other companies have been eliminated. They have no game to build on, there is no real worthwhile cause to start one. What has essentially happened is the NFL got a TON of money for several years while the competition was put to death. Now that there is no competition, the value of having an "Exclusive" license is gone. EA is completely in the drivers seat now. From a business standpoint this is brilliant. It lowers their cost of production, (no need to push it when you are the only game), the competition is completely wiped out, and now you can basically tell the NFL, "we are the only company equipped to make an NFL game for you, this is our offer, take it or leave it".

No, that's what I'm saying. He was saying, or asking, even though EA would be the only bidder for the exclusive license, why EA would turn down the opportunity to be own the football gaming market and not extend the license. I, like you, was pointing out that they already own the market whether that have the exclusive license or not, so why pay an arm and a leg for it ?

Why not go back to paying royalties and giving the NFL a percentage of Madden sales ?

I don't agree that another company can't, or won't, make an NFL football game. It won't over take Madden,in terms of sales, but if companies aren't paying out the you know what for licensing cost, and only give the NFL royalties and a percentage of sales, their games could be a financial success in their own right.

[roadman]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I don't agree that another company can't, or won't, make an NFL football game. It won't over take Madden,in terms of sales, but if companies aren't paying out the you know what for licensing cost, and only give the NFL royalties and a percentage of sales, their games could be a financial success in their own right.

I understand what you are saying and I still feel that is an ideal world. In reality, what company has enough start up cash for R @ D and put out a football game? That company would be taking on a huge risk going up against the Madden name. If Madden sells 5 million copies, do you really think a company will sell more than 500,000 copies going up against Madden and become profitable?

The NFL won't give up exclusivity. EA might be in the drivers seat, but it's still an NFL driven game. I feel EA will be paying less for the exclusivity vs just royalties and a percentage of sales.

[adfletch71]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

If 2k was too continue making a NFL game, I don't think madden would be selling 5 million copies. First off the 2k crowd wouldn't be buying madden, second if 2k was too build off of 2k5 presentation and have ALLPRO2K8 gameplay it would really hurt madden in its current state. Look at NBA today and MLB today implementation, its really adds to the immersion. If 2k was still in the game football wise, Madden would be selling a lot less in my humble opinion, but well never know that fact.

[roadman]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

If 2k was too continue making a NFL game, I don't think madden would be selling 5 million copies. First off the 2k crowd wouldn't be buying madden, second if 2k was too build off of 2k5 presentation and have ALLPRO2K8 gameplay it would really hurt madden in its current state. Look at NBA today and MLB today implementation, its really adds to the immersion. If 2k was still in the game football wise, Madden would be selling a lot less in my humble opinion, but well never know that fact.

My point is that 2k would need to get to first base before throwing out what if's. They need the capital for start-up and perhaps licensing fees and I don't feel they have the capital do do that, especially if they are looking for someone to buy them out.

[LiquorLogic]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I understand what you are saying and I still feel that is an ideal world. In reality, what company has enough start up cash for R @ D and put out a football game? That company would be taking on a huge risk going up against the Madden name. If Madden sells 5 million copies, do you really think a company will sell more than 500,000 copies going up against Madden and become profitable?

The NFL won't give up exclusivity. EA might be in the drivers seat, but it's still an NFL driven game. I feel EA will be paying less for the exclusivity vs just royalties and a percentage of sales.

I think the NFL is going to have give up exclusivity because no one's going to pay for it. Exclusive licenses are expensive because they make up for the fact that there's only one company paying for it. The appeal, of exclusivity, for the NFL was the fact that they can make more money than with multiple publishers. If that is know longer the case, because EA won't pay that hefty fee anymore, they may go back to multiple licenses.

[roadman]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I think the NFL is going to have give up exclusivity because no one's going to pay for it. Exclusive licenses are expensive because they make up for the fact that there's only one company paying for it. The appeal, of exclusivity, for the NFL was the fact that they can make more money than with multiple publishers. If that is know longer the case, because EA won't pay that hefty fee anymore, they may go back to multiple licenses.

I would love more options as a consumer, but right now, EA and the NFL have a business agreement. I see EA and the NFL coming to a compromise vs EA giving it all up.

That's what businesses do, they compromise on both ends, like they did on the current license.

Otherwise, at this stage, it's all just wishful thinking and holding out hope.

[RGiles36]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I would love more options as a consumer, but right now, EA and the NFL have a business agreement. I see EA and the NFL coming to a compromise vs EA giving it all up.

That's what businesses do, they compromise on both ends, like they did on the current license.

Otherwise, at this stage, it's all just wishful thinking and holding out hope.

This is where I'm getting at.

It would be nothing short of wonderful if the situation plays out like LiquorLogic believes it will. I just feel like we are escaping reality if we seriously entertain the potential of this occuring.

If I'm a business, yes, the money matters. A lot. But there's no way in hell I'm going to let another capable company enter the market when I have the means to freeze them out.

[LiquorLogic]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I would love more options as a consumer, but right now, EA and the NFL have a business agreement. I see EA and the NFL coming to a compromise vs EA giving it all up.

That's what businesses do, they compromise on both ends, like they did on the current license.

Otherwise, at this stage, it's all just wishful thinking and holding out hope.

What does EA have to gain from compromising after the license expires ? The current license is different. EA was worried that a possible lock out would kill their sales, so the NFL reduced their financial obligation, but, in return EA agreed to extend the deal and extra year.

EA wanted some relief; the NFL wanted another year of security with the license; that's a compromise.

It's not really wishful thinking. Yes, it's possible that another company enters the fold if EA doesn't renew the deal with the NFL, but it's also possible, as you pointed out, that no other publisher will be willing to develop a football game because they don't think that they can compete with the EA.

The game will be better if the exclusive license ends regardless of whether EA has an actual competitor or not. They won't be paying that hefty fee, so they'll be able to put more money into the development of the game. Of course, a competitor would be ideal for us.

If I'm a business, yes, the money matters. A lot. But there's no way in hell I'm going to let another capable company enter the market when I have the means to freeze them out.

What other capable company will be out there in 2013 ? Madden will basically have a strangle hold on the market without having to pay for it, and as I pointed out before, they've always had a strangle hold on the market, 2k just gave them a little scare.

EA has no one to fear whether another company comes out with a game or not.