Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

**RoyalBoyle78** · 07-14-2011, 10:10 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by EvanRG

First things first, I will withhold any judgement on progression until we get past seasons 10-15 and beyond. I felt this needed it's own thread because what I notice happening in the other progression threads is a lot of snowballing. One person says the word "broken" and people begin to blindly accept that as fact. I will do none of this, just post the ongoing results and statistics from each off-season.

What I DON'T want to see happen is have the community blindly call for tuning or a patch when we aren't 100% sure one is needed.

Anyway, here's the data through only 3 seasons (so not scientific enough, yet):

*notice that Ole Miss has not one, but TWO 99 QB's out of 4 overall after year 3.
*the sheer amount of kickers that were in the 90's after year 3 -- there were a lot.

I will continue to upload the progress as I complete each season. Firstly, even though it is only through 3 seasons, the drop off after season 2 was crazy! Can anyone confirm this besides myself? Season 4 will be interesting, but as I said, we will only know for sure once the base rosters are out of the way.

don't see really a problem with the progression, seems fair to me. I mean yes in year one there were a lot higher rated players, but I like the fact in year 3 there was a drop off, I mean do I want to have a 1000 players rated over 90 in every year of my dynasty, no I know I don't, like I said seems fair, interested to see what season 4 hold, if season 4 looks like season one or close to it, I think progression is spot on.

**Matt Diesel** · 07-14-2011, 10:12 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

There is a huge drop after year three. Im not too worried if a larger % of those ratings are kickers. Two 99 QBs on Ole Miss is kinda weird though.

**Mtneer08** · 07-14-2011, 10:14 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Appreciate the time and effort. Im actually liking the drop off from ratings being so high but I bet it starts to go back up again by a lot. I say this because I remember a couple people saying there were 8, 99 overall QB's alone by like year 5 or 6 in the one they simmed. Or maybe they were lying about it...guess we are about to find out.

**franko3219** · 07-14-2011, 10:18 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by Mtneer08

Appreciate the time and effort. Im actually liking the drop off from ratings being so high but I bet it starts to go back up again by a lot. I say this because I remember a couple people saying there were 8, 99 overall QB's alone by like year 5 or 6 in the one they simmed. Or maybe they were lying about it...guess we are about to find out.

So far I do not see anything that keeps me up at night, again still early. Just as in real college football, there are years where there is an abundance of talent, and years where the talent is thin. I hope this cycle of progression continues as it is vital to replayability.

**hkwforAUTigers** · 07-14-2011, 10:18 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Thanks for doing this. I was all on board for patching a fix for this, but would love to see and compare you're findings first.

My problem was that coaches progress to fast. A coach can go from a D+ to an A+ if he meets all his goals, simply just not realostic IMO. What are your thoughts on this?

Again, thanks for doing all the research!

**NDAlum** · 07-14-2011, 10:19 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

I appreciate you doing this man.

Looks good to me

I am curious about the team overall ratings if you could stretch it to include that.

Would like to see a good mix of good & bad teams with some great/terrible sprinkled in.

**EvanRG** · 07-14-2011, 10:25 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by NDAlum

I appreciate you doing this man.

Looks good to me

I am curious about the team overall ratings if you could stretch it to include that.

Would like to see a good mix of good & bad teams with some great/terrible sprinkled in.

Silly question, but where is that located exactly? I'm about finished with year 4 so I can add that in.

**NDAlum** · 07-14-2011, 10:30 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

You have to check out the preseason rankings.

**uofm1508** · 07-14-2011, 10:32 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by Mtneer08

Appreciate the time and effort. Im actually liking the drop off from ratings being so high but I bet it starts to go back up again by a lot. I say this because I remember a couple people saying there were 8, 99 overall QB's alone by like year 5 or 6 in the one they simmed. Or maybe they were lying about it...guess we are about to find out.

Not every sim is going to look the same. I truly doubt there was anyone lieing, but hopefully that 8 99 overall qb's was an anomaly

**Redacted01** · 07-14-2011, 10:40 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by uofm1508

Not every sim is going to look the same. I truly doubt there was anyone lieing, but hopefully that 8 99 overall qb's was an anomaly

Although 8 is a bit high, it's not unbelievable. 99 in NCAA does not automatically imply a great pro QB. It's all relative. If it was 4 or 5, would you still buy it, keeping years like 2003 in mind where you have the likes of Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethelisberger?

**Brian7d** · 07-14-2011, 10:42 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

First post...I'm one of the nice trolls.

I've been getting all my sports games reviews, rosters, sliders, etc from this site for the last few years and love the impact this site had on making sports games better.

In regards to any possible progression issue, isn't it quite possible the majority of these 95+ players are kickers and qbs? I know I've read they fixed kicking this year (good kpw+kacc=high ovr) and that QB awr is higher to make then scramble more.

Hopefully the results of the testing bears this out...competent kickers and QBs with pocket presence will have high overalls but wouldn't break dynasty for me in the least.

**uofm1508** · 07-14-2011, 10:46 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by dochalladay32

Although 8 is a bit high, it's not unbelievable. 99 in NCAA does not automatically imply a great pro QB. It's all relative. If it was 4 or 5, would you still buy it, keeping years like 2003 in mind where you have the likes of Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethelisberger?

Like I said having 8 99 overall rated Qb's does not bother me, as long as its an anomaly( a deviation from the norm)

If every dynasty and every season features that many it could become a problem(depends on all the ratings of the Qb's not just the overalls)

**mmorg** · 07-14-2011, 10:49 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Originally posted by Brian7d

First post...I'm one of the nice trolls.

I've been getting all my sports games reviews, rosters, sliders, etc from this site for the last few years and love the impact this site had on making sports games better.

In regards to any possible progression issue, isn't it quite possible the majority of these 95+ players are kickers and qbs? I know I've read they fixed kicking this year (good kpw+kacc=high ovr) and that QB awr is higher to make then scramble more.

Hopefully the results of the testing bears this out...competent kickers and QBs with pocket presence will have high overalls but wouldn't break dynasty for me in the least.

This is what the purpose of this thread is. It is to figure out if this is what's happening or not.

**EvanRG** · 07-14-2011, 10:49 AM

Re: Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

Updated through season 4. Definitely a substantial increase in amount of 90+ players, but there was actually a decrease in 99 overalls.

Major increases occured in the 93-90 range which helped propel the numbers back to 300+.

By the way, ND Alum, to be honest it would cost me an extra 10-20 minutes to try to sort the team ratings but I am keeping track of the number of A+ teams and D teams for you.

Statistical Look at Progression (Ongoing)

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