I've figured out exactly how the CPU logic works for NCAA drafts.
After simming through an entire season, including player progression, resigning, and free agency, the following teams looked like they might have needs at QB.
Bengals (78)
Dolphins (0) - They had NO QB
49ers (78)
Lions (78)
Seahawks (58)
The rest of the teams had at least one QB with an OVR of 80 or higher.
Here were the first ten teams for the draft:
1) Jaguars
2) Bills
3) Seahawks
4) Broncos
5) Browns
6) Raiders
7) Buccaneers
8) Dolphins
9) Giants
10) Titans
Knowing that the Seahawks get the third overall pick, and their starting QB is a 58 OVR, you'd reasonably conclude that they'll be taking a QB with their first pick, right? Might even guess that Andrew Luck is probably heading there, since the Jaguars have Garrard and Gabbert, and the Bills have Fitzpatrick?
Here's how it went:
1) Jaguars - QB Andrew Luck
2) Bills - QB Brandon Weeded
3) Seahawks - HB Tyler
4) Broncos - LT Nate Potter
5) Browns - ROLB Nigel Bradham
6) Raiders - Landry Jones
7) Buccaneers - RT Addison Lawrence
8) Dolphins - QB Ryan Lindley
9) Giants - P Drew Butler
10) Titans - RE Vince Browne
So the Jaguars and Bills take a QB when they don't need one, and the Seahawks who desperately need one take a HB? When they have two HBs already, who are 83 and 81 OVRs? To say nothing of that punter mess...
But I can explain! Here's how the logic works:
Going into the draft, here's the top 13 players listed in order as they appeared on the screen. I've included their OVRs, which I found after the preseason was over:
QB Andrew Luck (84)
QB Brandon Weeded (84)
HB Tyler (84)
QB Landry Jones (83)
LT Nate Potter (86 as a RT, presumably 83 as a LT)
ROLB Nigel Bradham (83)
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
QB Ryan Lindley (81)
FS Smith (81)
RT Addison Lawrence (81)
The first thing to take away from this is the players are definitely sorted by OVR. This means there is NO value in scouting, in my opinion.
Now, let's look at why teams drafted like they did. The Jaguars pick first, so they start at the very top of the list: QB Andrew Luck. 84 OVR. Their starting QB has an 83 OVR. So even though it's only a 1 point difference (and they already have two QB's in the 80's), they take Andrew Luck because his OVR is higher than their current QB.
Now it's the Bills turn. Luck is gone, so the top of the list is Weeded. Weeded's 84 OVR beats Fitzpatrick's 82 OVR, so they take Weeded.
Now here's where things get REALLY interesting. The Seahawks are up. They have a QB of 58. Their HB is 83 (with an 81 backup). Here's the list:
HB Tyler (84)
QB Landry Jones (83)
LT Nate Potter (86 as a RT, presumably 83 as a LT)
ROLB Nigel Bradham (83)
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
QB Ryan Lindley (81)
FS Smith (81)
RT Addison Lawrence (81)
They desperately need a QB, and they can have one by dropping just ONE SPOT on the list. But that's not how it works. They start at the top. And 84 HB beats 83 HB, so they take Tyler over Landry Jones!
Now we are up to the Broncos. Here's their list:
QB Landry Jones (83)
LT Nate Potter (86 as a RT, presumably 83 as a LT)
ROLB Nigel Bradham (83)
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
QB Ryan Lindley (81)
FS Smith (81)
RT Addison Lawrence (81)
The Broncos start at the top of the list. An 83 QB doesn't beat Orton at 84, so they move down. Their tackles are 86 and 83, so they keep looking. They have an 82 OLB, so they take Bradham.
Seeing how it works so far?
Now, let's dive into the Punter issue. By the time it gets to the Giants, 9th pick, the list looks like this:
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
FS Smith (81)
The Giants HB is an 86...but their punter is only a 66. Drew Butler is chosen.
CONCLUSION: The draft choices are sorted by their overall scores, and the CPU KNOWS EVERY SINGLE OVR. There is no scouting involved. Each team starts at the top of the list and takes the first choice they find that is higher than their current OVR at that position. As the Dolphins showed us, they will take a 1 point increase in starting HB over a 30 point increase in starting QB, if the HB is on the list higher than the QB is.
As for why the Punter is ranked so high? Because his overall is 83, while the first draft pick (Andrew Luck) is an 84. Position has nothing to do with it...the ONLY thing considered is overall score.
FIXES:
1) Control all teams during the draft (this creates other issues though, including the fact that the computer will not put User controlled team players on IR)
2) EA introduces logic to CPU where they consider serious needs (getting a QB when yours is 58 OVR) over simply improving OVR score at first come, first available (Getting a HB at 84 when you have HBs at 83 and 81.)
3) EA stops sorting the draft by OVR only. Introduce some randomness to it, allow for diamonds and flops, etc.
4) EA blocks the CPU from automatically knowing every player's OVR.
5) EA changes the program so that Punters and Kickers can not be taken before whatever round seems appropriate.
After simming through an entire season, including player progression, resigning, and free agency, the following teams looked like they might have needs at QB.
Bengals (78)
Dolphins (0) - They had NO QB
49ers (78)
Lions (78)
Seahawks (58)
The rest of the teams had at least one QB with an OVR of 80 or higher.
Here were the first ten teams for the draft:
1) Jaguars
2) Bills
3) Seahawks
4) Broncos
5) Browns
6) Raiders
7) Buccaneers
8) Dolphins
9) Giants
10) Titans
Knowing that the Seahawks get the third overall pick, and their starting QB is a 58 OVR, you'd reasonably conclude that they'll be taking a QB with their first pick, right? Might even guess that Andrew Luck is probably heading there, since the Jaguars have Garrard and Gabbert, and the Bills have Fitzpatrick?
Here's how it went:
1) Jaguars - QB Andrew Luck
2) Bills - QB Brandon Weeded
3) Seahawks - HB Tyler
4) Broncos - LT Nate Potter
5) Browns - ROLB Nigel Bradham
6) Raiders - Landry Jones
7) Buccaneers - RT Addison Lawrence
8) Dolphins - QB Ryan Lindley
9) Giants - P Drew Butler
10) Titans - RE Vince Browne
So the Jaguars and Bills take a QB when they don't need one, and the Seahawks who desperately need one take a HB? When they have two HBs already, who are 83 and 81 OVRs? To say nothing of that punter mess...
But I can explain! Here's how the logic works:
Going into the draft, here's the top 13 players listed in order as they appeared on the screen. I've included their OVRs, which I found after the preseason was over:
QB Andrew Luck (84)
QB Brandon Weeded (84)
HB Tyler (84)
QB Landry Jones (83)
LT Nate Potter (86 as a RT, presumably 83 as a LT)
ROLB Nigel Bradham (83)
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
QB Ryan Lindley (81)
FS Smith (81)
RT Addison Lawrence (81)
The first thing to take away from this is the players are definitely sorted by OVR. This means there is NO value in scouting, in my opinion.
Now, let's look at why teams drafted like they did. The Jaguars pick first, so they start at the very top of the list: QB Andrew Luck. 84 OVR. Their starting QB has an 83 OVR. So even though it's only a 1 point difference (and they already have two QB's in the 80's), they take Andrew Luck because his OVR is higher than their current QB.
Now it's the Bills turn. Luck is gone, so the top of the list is Weeded. Weeded's 84 OVR beats Fitzpatrick's 82 OVR, so they take Weeded.
Now here's where things get REALLY interesting. The Seahawks are up. They have a QB of 58. Their HB is 83 (with an 81 backup). Here's the list:
HB Tyler (84)
QB Landry Jones (83)
LT Nate Potter (86 as a RT, presumably 83 as a LT)
ROLB Nigel Bradham (83)
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
QB Ryan Lindley (81)
FS Smith (81)
RT Addison Lawrence (81)
They desperately need a QB, and they can have one by dropping just ONE SPOT on the list. But that's not how it works. They start at the top. And 84 HB beats 83 HB, so they take Tyler over Landry Jones!
Now we are up to the Broncos. Here's their list:
QB Landry Jones (83)
LT Nate Potter (86 as a RT, presumably 83 as a LT)
ROLB Nigel Bradham (83)
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
QB Ryan Lindley (81)
FS Smith (81)
RT Addison Lawrence (81)
The Broncos start at the top of the list. An 83 QB doesn't beat Orton at 84, so they move down. Their tackles are 86 and 83, so they keep looking. They have an 82 OLB, so they take Bradham.
Seeing how it works so far?
Now, let's dive into the Punter issue. By the time it gets to the Giants, 9th pick, the list looks like this:
HB Polk (83)
P Drew Butler (83)
SS Barron (82)
FS Lester (82)
FS Smith (81)
The Giants HB is an 86...but their punter is only a 66. Drew Butler is chosen.
CONCLUSION: The draft choices are sorted by their overall scores, and the CPU KNOWS EVERY SINGLE OVR. There is no scouting involved. Each team starts at the top of the list and takes the first choice they find that is higher than their current OVR at that position. As the Dolphins showed us, they will take a 1 point increase in starting HB over a 30 point increase in starting QB, if the HB is on the list higher than the QB is.
As for why the Punter is ranked so high? Because his overall is 83, while the first draft pick (Andrew Luck) is an 84. Position has nothing to do with it...the ONLY thing considered is overall score.
FIXES:
1) Control all teams during the draft (this creates other issues though, including the fact that the computer will not put User controlled team players on IR)
2) EA introduces logic to CPU where they consider serious needs (getting a QB when yours is 58 OVR) over simply improving OVR score at first come, first available (Getting a HB at 84 when you have HBs at 83 and 81.)
3) EA stops sorting the draft by OVR only. Introduce some randomness to it, allow for diamonds and flops, etc.
4) EA blocks the CPU from automatically knowing every player's OVR.
5) EA changes the program so that Punters and Kickers can not be taken before whatever round seems appropriate.
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