Simulation success is all about the playbook

[MrNFL_FanIQ]

A while back, I did a project with this game where I sat back and let the often wonky sim stat engine take its hold on Head Coach. I picked the Patriots, simply because they were at the top on the game, and set all of the tasks to be controlled by the computer, so that I had no say on it.

I loved this game as a player, so I was curious to see how it would simulate out. I started from the preseason to give everyone their proper draft, and did 14 of the 15 years possible.

And I found that basically how many games CPU teams win and which players put up numbers is 95% based on the coach and the playbook.

For one, the game absolutely LOVES the Buccaneers and Colts systems. In my 14 seasons, the Colts never missed the playoffs, their worst record was 10-6, they won 3 Super Bowls and made it to 5. Tony Dungy stayed the whole time.

Jim Caldwell left, and as a Colts assistant, had the same playbook. He took over the Vikings in 2011, once he was there, they had a winning record all 11 years.

Jon Gruden was a super success wherever he went. He won 3 Super Bowls with the Buccaneers, and left after 2012. In 2014, he took over the 2-14 Dolphins and they went to the AFC Championship. He left again for a year, took over the Jaguars, and they instantly went to the Super Bowl twice. Left again, came back in 2019 and made Seattle go from 4-12 to 12-4. Left again, and actually missed the playoffs once, and then made it with Philly.

Any of the assistants who took over Tampa with the same playbook (Bill Muir, Raheem Morris) continued winning seasons, each won a Super Bowl.

I'm not sure why those playbooks are loved so much, the game must heart the Tampa 2.

Continued in the next post...

[MrNFL_FanIQ]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

The coach hiring process on the game is an awkward one, as is the coach firing process. For whatever reason, the game just won't fire some coaches. For example, despite a 35% winning percentage and one playoff appearance in 14 seasons, John Fox always stayed in Carolina. The Titans missed the playoffs 13 years in a row, Jeff Fisher remained. Mike Tomlin had 10 straight seasons under .500 with the Steelers before they finally fired him.

But then, the game re-treaded coaches far too often. The programmers neglected something important: Coaches could not be lured away from their current job. And many coordinators who were certainly deserving of spots would never just leave based on their personality.

So you would have to wait from them to leave (which some would based on personality) or get fired (Good coaches would get fired if bad teams had a mass exodus)

So when teams got to the head coaching process, the game would look for the best available coaches by overall, and most often, the just fired head coaches would have that.

As a result, you had Eric Mangini and his 24% winning percentage get hired by the Raiders THREE DIFFERENT TIMES, even after taking them once to 0-16. Alex Gibbs had three head jobs in three years before retiring. Hue Jackson would have 7 different jobs with 5 teams.

And the thing is, these coaches had horrible playoffs, so wherever they would go, those teams would suck, they would get fired, and get hired to another bad team. So you would have teams like the Raiders and Jets who NEVER made the postseason, and a number of other teams consistently at the bottom. Most of these teams stayed stuck unless they happened to get lucky with a new good coach.

In the 14 Super Bowls, only 11 teams made it, only 6 won. The Colts, Buccaneers, Giants, and Bengals (Who hired Gary Hammermill) were just about always in the final. Buffalo randomly won once (Although with Jauron, they usually were a low end playoff team) and the Vikings with the Colts playbook won the 14th SB.

[MrNFL_FanIQ]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

The Giants were also beloved by the game, they made it to NINE of the 14 NFC Championship games. Tampa made it 7 times. The Colts were in the AFC Championship 8 times, the Hammermill Bengals 7 times.

But one other noticeable thing, is that individual stats were directly tied to playbooks. My case study is quarterbacks.

ENGLISH PATH QB NAMES AND POTENTIAL SPOILERS BELOW

Jack English is, of course, the stud QB of the Draft. He develops into the highest overall, but he ends up in Arizona, where Rob Ryan is the head coach for most of the years. They consistently finish out of the postseason, and English's numbers are good, not great.

Kelly James is one of the stud QB's, he went to Miami, and even with a 95 overall, consistently put up AWFUL stats every year with the horrible coaches the Dolphins had. The one season Gruden was there though, he put up stud numbers.

Travis Atkins was a nothing QB (Overall around 81) but became the starter post Carson Palmer for the Hammermill coached Bengals. He consistently is one of the top 5 QBs.

Matt Jamison is designed to be a bust type QB, his overall is 84, and his THA never tops 80. Yet, he was drafted by the Vikings, using the Colts playbook, and is now 5th overall all time for touchdown passes, each year throwing 40+ TD's and putting up MVP type numbers.

Because Mike Nolan with the 49ers uses the Mike Martz offensive playbook, the various crap QB's the 49ers have employed put up huge numbers.

[MrNFL_FanIQ]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

I might post more stuff, even might put together a narrative type post like I did for the seasons' I played based on these sim results. Depends on if I have free time, which I don't have a whole lot of right now.

But I will put together all of the stats I compiled from this sim games. This is the Excel file I made while doing this over the last year or two.

[damonb10]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

I have been noticing a lot of these trends as I've played the game as well. I just have never done the analysis. Great job and great information. Sometimes, I like to avoid discussions like this, because it makes you feel likethe game is broken! Just need to accept it for what it is and try to not think about it.

[Last_Light]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

I have been noticing a lot of these trends as I've played the game as well. I just have never done the analysis. Great job and great information. Sometimes, I like to avoid discussions like this, because it makes you feel likethe game is broken! Just need to accept it for what it is and try to not think about it.

This is exactly what I was going to say.

The one I've noticed most is Grudens and the Martz systems ability to make any QB look fantastic.

I hate knowing that I always have to go through the Colts to get to the superbowl every year. Too many Dynasty teams, but oh well. My ******* made it worse too. When Peyton retired I had Tristan Riley on the trade block (Can't stand watching the fat man play). The best offer by far was the Colts. Now I know he's going to be there for the rest of my damn career haha.

Although I can't really complain. 3 superbowls in 6 years is pretty damn good. Caps starting to get close however.

[jlech84]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

Great info!

Did i read that correctly? McNabb was a still starting QB in 2021?

Given that coaches and playbooks dominate the game I try and guide players to teams so they will succeed. The best example was forcing English to Hammermil's squad by trading for the 1st pick then trading it away to Hammermill's Raiders. I dont have the stats anymore, but English put up otherworldly #'s.

[MrNFL_FanIQ]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

Great info!

Did i read that correctly? McNabb was a still starting QB in 2021?

Given that coaches and playbooks dominate the game I try and guide players to teams so they will succeed. The best example was forcing English to Hammermil's squad by trading for the 1st pick then trading it away to Hammermill's Raiders. I dont have the stats anymore, but English put up otherworldly #'s.

Yeah, McNabb was a low 80's overall starting QB, with the Lions as I recall.

It's not as crazy as the career I actually played out, where 48 year old Marvin Harrison was still in the league and had shattered all of Jerry Rice's numbers.

[redbird294]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

I'm not sure why those playbooks are loved so much, the game must heart the Tampa 2.

The game does love the Tampa 2, and as a corollary, they love the Colts and Bucs since they run the Tampa 2 in the game. The Tampa 2 is ridiculously effective in this game. Take the Dungy 2 or Tampa 2 playbooks to any team and they'll instantly become a contender. The offensive book doesn't even matter--as long as they run the Tampa 2 on defense, it's a guaranteed playoff spot and a Super Bowl run every year.

[MrNFL_FanIQ]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

The game does love the Tampa 2, and as a corollary, they love the Colts and Bucs since they run the Tampa 2 in the game. The Tampa 2 is ridiculously effective in this game. Take the Dungy 2 or Tampa 2 playbooks to any team and they'll instantly become a contender. The offensive book doesn't even matter--as long as they run the Tampa 2 on defense, it's a guaranteed playoff spot and a Super Bowl run every year.

And yet, when I face the Tampa 2 in the actual in game, I would usually be golden, it's not hard to beat at all.

[redbird294]

Re: Simulation success is all about the playbook

And yet, when I face the Tampa 2 in the actual in game, I would usually be golden, it's not hard to beat at all.

That is definitely true. But if you look at the sim stats of the teams that run it, it's plenty of tackles, plenty of sacks, plenty of picks, top 5 in defense, every year.