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Originally Posted by Palo20 |
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I shouldn't bring up the Garrard thing every week, but he's still a lot better than most in Jacksonville will admit. Pro Football Focus (they grade every play) had him as their #2 QB in 2008, #9 in 2009 and #12 last year. Each of those years, he was working behind one of the bottom 10 OLines in pass protection (using their numbers). And of course, the WRs have been below average for years. The Jags had the least amount of "3 and outs" in the league last year and it wasn't even close. They moved the chains efficiently. Garrard does not get enough credit for making something out of nothing for many years.
Gabbert is PFF's lowest rated QB this year coming into this week.
Now, I'll drop the Garrard stuff, I understand if he was struggling in camp, and the team didn't want him and all that. Either way, I'll take years of production over a couple bad weeks in camp. But people in Jacksonville wanted him out for a while, and I'm just saying the grass is not always greener.
Gabbert is still a rookie, long way to go. He hasn't shown much to this point. I hope he progresses, and I'll enjoy watching the process. But again, the defense is impressive, running game is still solid. Bad quarterback play is holding this team down from winning games.
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You realize Gabbert had a 91 QB rating today, right? 15/28, 221, 1 td, 0 int. Garrard isn't going to significantly improve on that. And I'm not sure how that site had Garrard as their #2 QB in 08 and #9 in 10 - those were his worst two years, hands down. Any site that has a qb with 15 td passes and 13 int as the #2 qb in the league has zero credibility in my book.
So far, in three starts, Gabbert has completed only 47% of his passes (which needs to improve, and did this week), has 185 yards a game, 1 td/gm, and .67 int a game. In the first six games of last year, Garrard had a 66% completion, 139 ypg, 1.5 td/gm, and 1.16 int/gm. So Gabbert has more ypg, and throws barely more than half as many ints. Garrard got careless with the ball.
Looking at their schedule, assuming Gabbert doesn't continue to improve (which I believe is unlikely), I think they go 4-12. If they had Garrard, I think they're 2-3 at this point, and probably finish 6-10. I could see them winning 6 games with Gabbert as well, but it will take some improvement. The wins I think are likely from here out are Indy (twice), and one more from Cleveland, Tampa, or San Diego. I think Garrard, they win two of those three and beat either Houston or Tennessee as well. But they still aren't a playoff team, imo. It's a good defense, not a great one. They are top 10 in yards allowed, but they are 22nd in turnovers and 23rd in sacks. And the pass offense, with Gabbert or Garrard, isn't good (Mike Thomas is not a #1). So the quandry becomes, do we play for this year, and hope we can kick, scratch and claw to 8 or 9 wins and have an outside shot, or Gabbert in, and play for next year, when the defense should be better, being so young (Kampman and Mathis are the only defensive players over 30, and Meester, Turk, Scobee, McCown, and Greg Jones are the only other players total). It also gets you another high first round pick, which always makes your team better. A good year last year raised expectations. The Jaguars got lucky with who they played and when they played them a little bit. But they were always a year away from being where they want to be. That's next year. That's the year that was targeted throughout this rebuilding process, and you don't deviate from your plan based on an 8 win season.