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Wheeler Dealer · 12-10-2011, 08:56 AM

I don't know why this isn't standard strategy, much less why I've never seen it IRL.

If you are 14 points down late in a game and you score a TD, why not go for two? If this decision matters, then you have to assume that you will score another TD and shut out your opponent over the last few minutes of regulation time.

Let's assume the 2 point conversion is 50% and a kick is 100% for simplicity sake. If you go for two after the first TD you win the game 50% of the time, tie 25% of the time and lose 25% of the time. Add to that the fact that the kick isn't 100% and the advantages of going for two becomes even greater.

IRL the kick is 96% and I found estimates of anywhere from 40% to 55% for a two point conversion. (I think you will find the success rate to be well over 50% in NFL HC 09).

Let's assume 40%.

Win 38.4% (.4 * .96)
Lose 36% (.6 *.6)

So even the low-ball estimates make it mathematically correct to go for two.

The only down side I see is that after you are successful, an opponent who might otherwise run out the clock will try to score. I don't think many teams run out the clock anyway if they are in a favorable position to score a FG and win rather than going to OT.

I did read a couple of articles on the merits of going for 2 points after every TD. The benefit is small and of questionable value. Plus, IRL, such a strategy would necessarily consume practice time currently devoted to something else that is probably more valuable. In this game it would probably be profitable but would change the feel of the simulation.

12-10-2011, 08:56 AM	#1
Wheeler Dealer Rookie OVR: 5 Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Dallas, TX Blog Entries: 2	Two Point Conversion when Down 8 Late I don't know why this isn't standard strategy, much less why I've never seen it IRL. If you are 14 points down late in a game and you score a TD, why not go for two? If this decision matters, then you have to assume that you will score another TD and shut out your opponent over the last few minutes of regulation time. Let's assume the 2 point conversion is 50% and a kick is 100% for simplicity sake. If you go for two after the first TD you win the game 50% of the time, tie 25% of the time and lose 25% of the time. Add to that the fact that the kick isn't 100% and the advantages of going for two becomes even greater. IRL the kick is 96% and I found estimates of anywhere from 40% to 55% for a two point conversion. (I think you will find the success rate to be well over 50% in NFL HC 09). Let's assume 40%. Win 38.4% (.4 * .96) Lose 36% (.6 *.6) So even the low-ball estimates make it mathematically correct to go for two. The only down side I see is that after you are successful, an opponent who might otherwise run out the clock will try to score. I don't think many teams run out the clock anyway if they are in a favorable position to score a FG and win rather than going to OT. I did read a couple of articles on the merits of going for 2 points after every TD. The benefit is small and of questionable value. Plus, IRL, such a strategy would necessarily consume practice time currently devoted to something else that is probably more valuable. In this game it would probably be profitable but would change the feel of the simulation.