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Originally Posted by Blzer |
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I'm not so sure that I agree with this system:
You can ask any pitcher in the majors which kind of pitch they get frustrated over. They will tell you that if they give up a home run on a flat curveball hanging over the belt, yeah they'll beat themselves up over it because they know they shouldn't have thrown it there; but I guarantee you that every pitcher in the world absolutely despises when their best stuff results in a broken bat duck-snort single the other way that "drives" the men in scoring position, because they knew that the batter had no right to earn a hit in that scenario.
That said, while a pitcher may be angry with lowered confidence in a situation like that, it should have no effect on that fastball or cutter that he threw to that hitter in that situation. Meanwhile, if a hitter gets, say, robbed of a home run or extra bases, a pitcher will credit his outfielder and be very thankful that his pitch didn't result in what it probably deserved to result in. As a result, that pitch should now be inferior. Someone just shelled him, so they're seeing it well. Any hitter in baseball will tell you that they'll take those Texas-leaguer singles for the average boost, but it's not wise to look for results when at-bat, but to look for good contact.
Anyway, I just disagree with the way they are going about that system.
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I would suggest that the way the author of the article described this element may be coming across as somewhat misleading. It's hard to imagine that the development team intentionally planned to make the game react the wrong way to hard outs and lame hits. Much more likely is that the new pitch effectiveness factor will be based purely on prior results (success or failure... allowing a hit - any kind of hit - was bad... getting the out - however you got it - was good).
This is certainly not a perfect way to evaluate the effectiveness of a guy's stuff with regards to specific pitches on a given day, but I can understand why the game would need to be designed in such a manner if the pitch effectiveness element is to be added. Maybe in the future they will be able to expand the concept to include the kind of more accurate logic which in some way evaluates the quality of the hits and outs, but the first time around with this new aspect introduced into the code, developing the game to be able to determine which outs should be deemed as poor pitching (like a hard liner) and which hits recognized as good pitching (like a swinging bunt for a single) could just be too complicated of a process to adequately integrate with the hits that are considered legit hits and the outs considered to be solid outs.