2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

It's hard for guys to maintain their weight (hell, he might've even lost some) and still be on roids.

He made some pretty big adjustments and they're definitely noticeable. It wouldn't surprise me as much if EE was on roids (but he lost so much weight he looked like Rajai Davis at one point), but still, it seems pretty unlikely.

He doesn't have to be on 'roids to be illegal...HGH or synthetic testosterone. Melky didn't bulk up, ARod didn't bulk up. The days of a Sosa/McGwire/Bonds turning into He-man are past...this stuff isn't going to change the appearance so much as it is going to improve recovery times and improve explosiveness.

[AC]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

I'm not entirely sold on his "swing change". I mean C'mon, look at these 2009-2010 transition stats:

2009: G:113 BA:.235 HR:13 RBI:40 SLG:.408 OPS:.757 OPS+:99
2010: G:162 BA:.260 HR:54 RBI:124 SLG:.617 OPS.995 OPS+:164

I mean that doesn't make you in the slightest bit suspicious? I know swing can help ALOT. Just look at Ken Griffey Jr., but being a guy whose career high HRs before 2010 was 16 pull 54 out of nowhere? I'm not completely sold. But I could be wrong...

Curtis Granderson;

2010: .221 ISO, .344 wOBA, 111 wRC+
2011: .290 ISO, .393 wOBA, 146 wRC+

A huge one year jump? Must be steroids!

[AC]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

He doesn't have to be on 'roids to be illegal...HGH or synthetic testosterone. Melky didn't bulk up, ARod didn't bulk up. The days of a Sosa/McGwire/Bonds turning into He-man are past...this stuff isn't going to change the appearance so much as it is going to improve recovery times and improve explosiveness.

You have a point, but Bautista's explosiveness hasn't changed- he's still slow as hell haha. I think there could be a correlation due to increased explosiveness between 'roiding and a sudden defensive jump, but defensive metrics are so sketchy / flip-flopping, it'd be hard to tell.

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

You have a point, but Bautista's explosiveness hasn't changed- he's still slow as hell haha. I think there could be a correlation due to increased explosiveness between 'roiding and a sudden defensive jump, but defensive metrics are so sketchy / flip-flopping, it'd be hard to tell.

Well, by explosiveness I meant more of his ability to generate bat speed/power deep into a season.

One of the biggest things I believe PED's has allowed guys to do is maintain power/energy through a grueling schedule. When you hit August everyone is hurting and tired...with PED's you can maintain a level that wasn't possible before and thus production can be maintained.

[CameRoN0407]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Curtis Granderson;

2010: .221 ISO, .344 wOBA, 111 wRC+
2011: .290 ISO, .393 wOBA, 146 wRC+

A huge one year jump? Must be steroids!

Yea, but he didn't get 41 more Home runs than the previous year with only 50 more games played...

Anyway, I don't like to argue abput steroid use unless it is confirmed. Hell, Bautista's adjustment might've really worked and he's clean! I'm not going to make anymore assumptions about Bautista 'til it's proven. So right now in all our minds, he's a great ballplayer. Not HOFer, but good.

[CameRoN0407]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

he's still slow as hell haha.

You serious bro?

invisibility is awesome!!!

[AC]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Well, by explosiveness I meant more of his ability to generate bat speed/power deep into a season.

One of the biggest things I believe PED's has allowed guys to do is maintain power/energy through a grueling schedule. When you hit August everyone is hurting and tired...with PED's you can maintain a level that wasn't possible before and thus production can be maintained.

It'd improve general explosiveness too, I'd assume. But I can tell you right now (but I feel like a homer with no data to back this up), his bat speed has not noticeably changed.

Just using his 2011 season as an example, Bautista's ISO (power) was hot up until September in which he faded FAST. And just based off memory, he had like 30 homers at the all star break, and 12/13 after that. He really slowed down.

You can't use 2012 as he had, what, 7 second half games?

Looking at his 2010, though, it's like his 2011 (and 2012 to an extent): Crappy April (relatively), his best months were July/August, and he really faded in September (against supposedly weaker pitching).

Yea, but he didn't get 41 more Home runs than the previous year with only 50 more games played...

Anyway, I don't like to argue abput steroid use unless it is confirmed. Hell, Bautista's adjustment might've really worked and he's clean! I'm not going to make anymore assumptions about Bautista 'til it's proven. So right now in all our minds, he's a great ballplayer. Not HOFer, but good.

Just one last point on this, home runs aren't as good a measure of power as ISO is. That's why I mentioned it, to guard against that exact point.

[snepp]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Toward the end of that 2009 season, it was being reported that Bautista had made some pretty dramatic changes to his approach and swing. Take a look at his September numbers from that season.

<table class="sortable stats_table" id="month"><tbody><tr data-row="5" class=""><td align="right">.257</td> <td align="right">.339</td> <td align="right">.606</td> <td align="right">.944</td></tr></tbody></table>
Seeing that kind of power generation, it isn't terribly difficult to see where his 2010 season came from.

[AC]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Toward the end of that 2009 season, it was being reported that Bautista had made some pretty dramatic changes to his approach and swing. Take a look at his September numbers from that season.

<table class="sortable stats_table" id="month"><tbody><tr data-row="5" class=""><td align="right">.257</td> <td align="right">.339</td> <td align="right">.606</td> <td align="right">.944</td></tr></tbody></table>
Seeing that kind of power generation, it isn't terribly difficult to see where his 2010 season came from.

I would have referenced that, but I think people could still allege, "Oh, he started taking steroids that particular month," so I figured I might as well not bring it up.

He hit something like 10 homers that month, and increased his WAR by something like 1.7 (off the top of my head). I remember watching him and thinking "who the hell is this guy?"

And then Cito Gaston batted him leadoff in April 2010.

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Toward the end of that 2009 season, it was being reported that Bautista had made some pretty dramatic changes to his approach and swing. Take a look at his September numbers from that season.

<table class="sortable stats_table" id="month"><tbody><tr data-row="5" class=""><td align="right">.257</td> <td align="right">.339</td> <td align="right">.606</td> <td align="right">.944</td></tr></tbody></table>
Seeing that kind of power generation, it isn't terribly difficult to see where his 2010 season came from.

Oh, he certainly made changes. I remember watching him in ST 2010 and I made a comment on this board about how he looked so different and was just raking. I expected it to tail off though once he faced major league pitching and they stopped throwing him fastballs...of course it didn't.

I'm not saying he's on something...it just wouldn't surprise me anymore with any of these guys who come out of 'nowhere' to become one of the best players in baseball. Just the nature of the beast now...

[Majingir]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

People also shouldn't forget...Bautista was working heavily with Cito Gaston and other people from the Jays, who were apart of the world series teams. So if there is anyone who can help a player out in his career, it'd be a world series coaching staff.

Bautista has been tested dozens of times already, so if he was on something, they would have caught him already.

[snepp]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

I would have referenced that, but I think people could still allege, "Oh, he started taking steroids that particular month," so I figured I might as well not bring it up.

Yup, those "magic 'roids" that work overnight.

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Another thing in Bautista's favor is he always had power...he hit 24 homers in his last full minor league season and showed power in his other major league stops, but he just couldn't get a chance to play.

[AC]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

I'm not saying he's on something...it just wouldn't surprise me anymore with any of these guys who come out of 'nowhere' to become one of the best players in baseball. Just the nature of the beast now...

Certainly a fair point.

Cito Gaston

Don't remind me of those days haha.

But re: drug tests, Lance Armstrong never failed a drug test. They're not *exactly* the most reliable things.

Another thing in Bautista's favor is he always had power...he hit 24 homers in his last full minor league season and showed power in his other major league stops, but he just couldn't get a chance to play.

Playing in places like Kansas City and Pittsburgh most certainly didn't help his power in the least. Toronto, however, would. Big hitter's park.

[CabreraMVP]

Re: 2012-13 Hot Stove League Thread

Bautista's emergence isn't that hard to believe. A simple change in approach is everything. He was looking to drive the ball more, and most important he started his swing earlier. So he's getting out ahead of those fastballs and pulling them to left. Before 2010, he fouled off a ton of fastballs. He wasn't starting his swing early enough.

I never suspected him of doing anything. As a baseball player I know how a change in approach at the plate can make a huge difference. These guys are strong enough to hit homeruns. Bautista always has been. He just made adjustments so he wasn't missing those fastballs anymore. The balls he used to be foul off, he's jumping over them and driving them now.