Seems plausible.
I remember when one of my QBs went down (I think it was Schumacher, 99 THP) and I went with Colt McCoy.
If I threw a deep out with McCoy, the defender had much more time to react and make a play than when I had Schumacher in (the ball was like a rocket).
So, to me, it plays out. As far as weather - I don't get a lot of weather in my Oakland CCM, but rain I know has always done weird stuff to games (sometimes fumble fests, etc).