The individual player licensing that 2K did with APF killed their profits. At 400K units, it wasn't big by any stretch, but it would've been more than enough to cover general production expenses otherwise. APF was a very low-budget production.
I know it's a popular opinion that a non-NFL licensed game can't sell, but I disagree strongly because:
- Blitz The League 1 sold 1.6 Million copies and was an even lower budget production than All-Pro Football was. Midway made a killing on that game. Companies like 2K need to examine why Blitz worked. In my opinion, it worked because the fictional league and its teams and players were all given a strong professional identity that drew you in and made you believe it. The story pulled you in even deeper, and the tough hard-nosed no-holds barred approach was appreciated by fans because no other football game was ever that honest and in your face. The marketing was also excellent. It was basically GTA with football, except you couldn't have physical control of your off-field character.
On the field, it was like what you would've pictured an XFL video game to be if the XFL had lasted. Cool on-field camera angles post and pre-play, dirty hits, and tons of trash-talking. A sim version of this game with better graphics and an open-world off the field story would be a monster.
- Games like All-Pro Football and BackBreaker didn't fail sales-wise simply because they lacked an NFL license. Big reason yes, but not the only reason. They failed also largely because they were designed wrong.
APF had WAY too many customization restrictions, and no worthwhile modes and activities to keep your attention. There were no stories, the team names were terrible, the uniforms were abominable, the league had no identity, and did I mention all the restrictions? And then the marketing was a legendary disaster. APF never stood a chance.
BackBreaker was just a big tech demo. Just about everything was wrong with that game except for the great team editor and some cool RTP collisions.
I strongly believe that there is a 1 to 2 Million unit potential for a non-NFL football game that does this the right way. I believe that if they add in a fleshed out Story Mode as well, that number could multiply.