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</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#13214e">SAN DIEGO PADRES 2014 SEASON PREVIEW</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">
Last season, Bud Black's Padres were waylaid by injuries, but they managed a 76-86 record, which isn't bad in context. That record was helped by a 16-11 record in September. Can the Pads recapture that late-year momentum and notch their first winning season since 2010? Let's break it down for 2014 ...
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<table width="90%" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#ffffff">
</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#13214e">SAN DIEGO PADRES 2014 SEASON PREVIEW</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">
Last season, Bud Black's Padres were waylaid by injuries, but they managed a 76-86 record, which isn't bad in context. That record was helped by a 16-11 record in September. Can the Pads recapture that late-year momentum and notch their first winning season since 2010? Let's break it down for 2014 ...
Probable lineup
1. Everth Cabrera, SS
2. Will Venable, CF
3. Chase Headley, 3B
4. Carlos Quentin, LF
5. Yonder Alonso, 1B
6. Jedd Gyorko, 2B
7. Seth Smith, RF
8. Nick Hundley, C
Bench: C Rene Rivera, OF/1B Kyle Blanks, INF/OF Alexi Amarista, OF Chris Denorfia, OF Reymond Fuentes
Last season, the Padres ranked 12th in the NL runs scored. Petco Park, despite the fences being drawn in, still played as a pronounced pitcher's environment. On that point, it's worth noting that the 2013 Friars ranked a more respectable seventh in runs scored on the road. Also on the positive side, only the Giants achieved the offensive platoon advantage a higher percentage of the time.
What will help the Padres in the season to come is if Headley, the lineup fulcrum, enjoys a bounce-back. His numbers last season certainly weren't bad in context (116 OPS+), but after his stellar 2012, expectations weren't quite met. There's no doubt that the fractured thumb he suffered in spring training dragged down his numbers. He maintained his base-level hitting skills, so now that he's fully healthy the power numbers should return. Speaking of injuries, the Padres put a player on the DL 22 times last season, and 12 of those were position-player transactions. Given better health, the offense should improve in 2014.
Probable rotation
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Andrew Cashner
3. Josh Johnson
4. Tyson Ross
5. Eric Stults
In 2013, the Padres ranked 12th in the NL in rotation ERA and last in rotation WAR. Suffice it to say, you're not going to contend with starting pitching of such a low quality. Moving forward, it's worth noting that a good bit of the damage last season was done by Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard, who combined to allow 144 runs in 195 innings. Volquez is now a Pirate, and Richard opted for free agency after being out-righted to the minors. Moreover, a full season of Kennedy, the breakout potential of Cashner and the upside of Johnson all portend better days. Expect improvement on this front.
X-Factor: Avoiding Injuries
The Padres won’t be able to prove their talent unless their key players can stay on the field. While staying healthy is only part of the issue—many of the team’s oft-injured players have question marks on the field as well—there’s no question various injuries have constantly held the Padres back.
On paper, this team has a decent shot to contend for a playoff spot once the injured players return. Josh Johnson was one of the National League's best pitchers when he was healthy a few years ago, and Cameron Maybin has shown his ability to anchor an outfield in the past, with a solid 4.5 WAR in 2011. In short, the Padres’ chances are questionable even when healthy, but those chances go down to nil if the key injuries keep occurring.
</td></tr></tbody></table>1. Everth Cabrera, SS
2. Will Venable, CF
3. Chase Headley, 3B
4. Carlos Quentin, LF
5. Yonder Alonso, 1B
6. Jedd Gyorko, 2B
7. Seth Smith, RF
8. Nick Hundley, C
Bench: C Rene Rivera, OF/1B Kyle Blanks, INF/OF Alexi Amarista, OF Chris Denorfia, OF Reymond Fuentes
Last season, the Padres ranked 12th in the NL runs scored. Petco Park, despite the fences being drawn in, still played as a pronounced pitcher's environment. On that point, it's worth noting that the 2013 Friars ranked a more respectable seventh in runs scored on the road. Also on the positive side, only the Giants achieved the offensive platoon advantage a higher percentage of the time.
What will help the Padres in the season to come is if Headley, the lineup fulcrum, enjoys a bounce-back. His numbers last season certainly weren't bad in context (116 OPS+), but after his stellar 2012, expectations weren't quite met. There's no doubt that the fractured thumb he suffered in spring training dragged down his numbers. He maintained his base-level hitting skills, so now that he's fully healthy the power numbers should return. Speaking of injuries, the Padres put a player on the DL 22 times last season, and 12 of those were position-player transactions. Given better health, the offense should improve in 2014.
Probable rotation
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Andrew Cashner
3. Josh Johnson
4. Tyson Ross
5. Eric Stults
In 2013, the Padres ranked 12th in the NL in rotation ERA and last in rotation WAR. Suffice it to say, you're not going to contend with starting pitching of such a low quality. Moving forward, it's worth noting that a good bit of the damage last season was done by Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard, who combined to allow 144 runs in 195 innings. Volquez is now a Pirate, and Richard opted for free agency after being out-righted to the minors. Moreover, a full season of Kennedy, the breakout potential of Cashner and the upside of Johnson all portend better days. Expect improvement on this front.
X-Factor: Avoiding Injuries
The Padres won’t be able to prove their talent unless their key players can stay on the field. While staying healthy is only part of the issue—many of the team’s oft-injured players have question marks on the field as well—there’s no question various injuries have constantly held the Padres back.
On paper, this team has a decent shot to contend for a playoff spot once the injured players return. Josh Johnson was one of the National League's best pitchers when he was healthy a few years ago, and Cameron Maybin has shown his ability to anchor an outfield in the past, with a solid 4.5 WAR in 2011. In short, the Padres’ chances are questionable even when healthy, but those chances go down to nil if the key injuries keep occurring.
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