FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

[michiganfan8620]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Just curious as to why some players have different ratings in random categories, for example, why is Jake Long a 23 in Man coverage, but D'Brickashaw Ferguson a 25? Have you "analyzed" both in man coverage and come to that conclusion? My other problem with these ratings is this. Why are RB's for the most part way too strong, and OL way too weak? Arian Foster has a 90 for STR, Ray Rice has a 85 STR, something almost no OT's do. Most OT's are rated in the 70's and 80's, even the best ones. I thought you wanted accuracy across the board, not ratings weighted by positions? You were mad at madden for overrating the speed for players and overrating the STR for OL. So you just instead lowered the speed of RB's and the STR of OL, and went and gave the RB's abnormally high STR ratings? I just don't understand that. And also, how come Jamaal Charles, who ran a 4.38 at the combine, has 85 speed, whereas MJD, who ran a 4.39 at the combine, has 91 speed? What is the deal with that? And as of lately, MJD has looked nowhere near as fast as he used to a few years ago.

[michiganfan8620]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

And also, since you are all about traits and not production, what reason is there for suspended players having such low ratings? They should keep their ratings, as they have those physical skills, players using the rosters should just not use them. It doesn't make sense to have Mathis as a 44, as players using these ratings wouldn't be able to use Mathis if they wanted to play a season.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Just curious as to why some players have different ratings in random categories, for example, why is Jake Long a 23 in Man coverage, but D'Brickashaw Ferguson a 25? Have you "analyzed" both in man coverage and come to that conclusion? My other problem with these ratings is this. Why are RB's for the most part way too strong, and OL way too weak? Arian Foster has a 90 for STR, Ray Rice has a 85 STR, something almost no OT's do. Most OT's are rated in the 70's and 80's, even the best ones. I thought you wanted accuracy across the board, not ratings weighted by positions? You were mad at madden for overrating the speed for players and overrating the STR for OL. So you just instead lowered the speed of RB's and the STR of OL, and went and gave the RB's abnormally high STR ratings? I just don't understand that. And also, how come Jamaal Charles, who ran a 4.38 at the combine, has 85 speed, whereas MJD, who ran a 4.39 at the combine, has 91 speed? What is the deal with that? And as of lately, MJD has looked nowhere near as fast as he used to a few years ago.

The "random" ratings you cite are based on correlative data. That means that there is a strong correlation between a graded trait and the probability that it matches to a particular value of an ungraded trait. You can guess what these are for certain positions.

STR is based on the 1-rep maxes for the three core lifts: Bench press, squat, and clean. The three are graded separately and then averaged. Those averages are then re-graded. What you find is that many OL are actually not as strong as what EA has led you to believe, and many non-OL are actually stronger than their OL counterparts.

Think about it this way. EA has a correlation of 93% between size and STR. That means, the bigger you are, the higher your STR rating. However, this isn't always true. Ever go to the gym and see that 400lb guy who can barely curl 25lbs? According to Madden his STR would be closer to 99 than to 1. How about the 175lb powerlifter who can bench press nearly three times his bodyweight? THAT is strong.

As you can see, in reality, STR has far less correlation to weight than what Madden has erroneously trained you to believe.

All of the players are rated using the same scales. Ray Rice is not stronger than an OT because he is a RB. He is stronger because HE IS STRONGER! I do nothing for the physical attributes based on position. All players, regardless of position, are rated using the same scale. If you would read our FAQ section, you would know this before posting.

As for SPD, you are, once again, ERRONEOUSLY, rating players based on the 40 times. 40 times are important, yes, but mostly for the split times. Using the split times, we can create a graph of time v. distance to see how the players covered that distance. We can then differentiate said graph to determine the velocity and acceleration the player ran with during any point of his run. In this case between MJD and Charles, MJD had a better top-end speed (which is how EA rates speed when you look at their mechanics), but Charles had a better initial velocity (how EA grades the ACC attribute). Some players start fast (Charles) but have less top-end speed, while others start slower but have a higher top-end speed (like MJD). The data tells us this. If you only use 40 times, you must ignore ACC because the velocity will be averaged. By incorporating the split times, we can also solve for ACC, which Madden also rates.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

And also, since you are all about traits and not production, what reason is there for suspended players having such low ratings? They should keep their ratings, as they have those physical skills, players using the rosters should just not use them. It doesn't make sense to have Mathis as a 44, as players using these ratings wouldn't be able to use Mathis if they wanted to play a season.

His physical traits are the same. Since he is suspended, he isn't very useful. I am sure that once his suspension is lifted, he attributes will go back up to whatever the scouts deem is appropriate. Until then, this will deter anyone from plugging him in as-is.

[Cowboy008]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Will they be doing it for Madden 15?

[michiganfan8620]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

The "random" ratings you cite are based on correlative data. That means that there is a strong correlation between a graded trait and the probability that it matches to a particular value of an ungraded trait. You can guess what these are for certain positions.

STR is based on the 1-rep maxes for the three core lifts: Bench press, squat, and clean. The three are graded separately and then averaged. Those averages are then re-graded. What you find is that many OL are actually not as strong as what EA has led you to believe, and many non-OL are actually stronger than their OL counterparts.

Think about it this way. EA has a correlation of 93% between size and STR. That means, the bigger you are, the higher your STR rating. However, this isn't always true. Ever go to the gym and see that 400lb guy who can barely curl 25lbs? According to Madden his STR would be closer to 99 than to 1. How about the 175lb powerlifter who can bench press nearly three times his bodyweight? THAT is strong.

As you can see, in reality, STR has far less correlation to weight than what Madden has erroneously trained you to believe.

All of the players are rated using the same scales. Ray Rice is not stronger than an OT because he is a RB. He is stronger because HE IS STRONGER! I do nothing for the physical attributes based on position. All players, regardless of position, are rated using the same scale. If you would read our FAQ section, you would know this before posting.

As for SPD, you are, once again, ERRONEOUSLY, rating players based on the 40 times. 40 times are important, yes, but mostly for the split times. Using the split times, we can create a graph of time v. distance to see how the players covered that distance. We can then differentiate said graph to determine the velocity and acceleration the player ran with during any point of his run. In this case between MJD and Charles, MJD had a better top-end speed (which is how EA rates speed when you look at their mechanics), but Charles had a better initial velocity (how EA grades the ACC attribute). Some players start fast (Charles) but have less top-end speed, while others start slower but have a higher top-end speed (like MJD). The data tells us this. If you only use 40 times, you must ignore ACC because the velocity will be averaged. By incorporating the split times, we can also solve for ACC, which Madden also rates.

Yes, but we are also a few years away from the last time these guys ran officially timed 40s. Charles is faster now, MJD doesn't look like the same explosive player he used to be. The STR thing, there are still some issues. A guy like Mike Martin, DL for the Titans can squat 700 lbs. Then you have Arian Foster, who can squat 500. 200 lb difference equals 1 point difference? Not to mention the fact that Madden is referring to on-field strength, not weight-lifting numbers. Weight numbers usually correlate, but there are cases where they don't. The 6'7 OL has to go lower while squatting, push higher while benching, etc than the 5'8 RB. Thus resulting in similar numbers, even though the 6'7 guy could be stronger.

[michiganfan8620]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

His physical traits are the same. Since he is suspended, he isn't very useful. I am sure that once his suspension is lifted, he attributes will go back up to whatever the scouts deem is appropriate. Until then, this will deter anyone from plugging him in as-is.

Well, because he is suspended, then he is incapable of doing a finesse move? It just doesn't make sense if FBG is only going by his player traits. His production won't be there the first 4 games, but he still has those same traits. The only players using your ratings are sim players, who wouldn't plug him in anyway. And if they did, why would it matter? IMO it would be better to rate him the way he should be without a suspension (something that will only affect his production, not his traits), and allow it to be up to the player to use him.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Hey DCEBB I didn't want to get the rookie rating thread even more off topic so I will post in this thread.

I am assuming it does, does the operationalization of attributes fall under the terms of your NDA? It has to right?

That is the gist of my questions and concerns regarding your ratings.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Yes, but we are also a few years away from the last time these guys ran officially timed 40s. Charles is faster now, MJD doesn't look like the same explosive player he used to be. The STR thing, there are still some issues. A guy like Mike Martin, DL for the Titans can squat 700 lbs. Then you have Arian Foster, who can squat 500. 200 lb difference equals 1 point difference? Not to mention the fact that Madden is referring to on-field strength, not weight-lifting numbers. Weight numbers usually correlate, but there are cases where they don't. The 6'7 OL has to go lower while squatting, push higher while benching, etc than the 5'8 RB. Thus resulting in similar numbers, even though the 6'7 guy could be stronger.

The average player loses .005 on a 40 time for every year accrued in the NFL. I highly doubt that a RB, of all positions, is actually faster. I have Foster at 398 for the bench, and 625 on the squat with a clean of 430 compared to 350 for Martin.

Madden's use of on-field strength is wrong. Strength is strength. How you APPLY it is what matters. Some players are strong, but don't apply it on the field. That doesn't make them weaker, they just don't use it correctly.

PLEASE get it out of your head that Madden does everything right. Just because Madden uses an attribute one way does not mean they are using it correctly.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Well, because he is suspended, then he is incapable of doing a finesse move? It just doesn't make sense if FBG is only going by his player traits. His production won't be there the first 4 games, but he still has those same traits. The only players using your ratings are sim players, who wouldn't plug him in anyway. And if they did, why would it matter? IMO it would be better to rate him the way he should be without a suspension (something that will only affect his production, not his traits), and allow it to be up to the player to use him.

Sorry you disagree, but I go with what the grades say. I don't make this stuff up. I am an expert in data analysis. I interpolate and publish.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Hey DCEBB I didn't want to get the rookie rating thread even more off topic so I will post in this thread.

I am assuming it does, does the operationalization of attributes fall under the terms of your NDA? It has to right?

That is the gist of my questions and concerns regarding your ratings.

I can't talk about who provides the data, what team he works for, or give out the data in its primary form. What I can do is interpolate it freely and publish it under the guise of Madden ratings.

I choose not to discuss all of the details on how I rate players because I want sole ownership over how I do things. I have put in thousands of hours into this project since 2009, and to be honest, I want the credit for that work. I am willing to discuss theory, but not specifics.

Get what I am saying?

[ggsimmonds]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

From the other thread

"So you are telling me that if a WR averages 20 YPC he should be rated very fast"

No that is not what I am saying. You are putting words in my mouth.

What I meant was take any player and look at their production. Then you break it down and determine how he arrived at that. In your 20 ypc you break that down further. Look at his yac. On passes thrown to him look at how far the ball traveled in the air. Consider all those things and extrapolate ratings. Of course this matters more for the mental or skill ratings as opposed to the physical ratings. It varies by rating though.
Then if you converted the numbers properly, and the underlying code is adequate, the player should be a reasonable recreation of his real life self.

"I would rather quantify the parts of each player, add them all up, and see what the outcome is"
But we know roughly what the outcome ought to be.

I stated earlier that I was confused and I think I know why -- we are actually probably in agreement; we are just using different terminology. what I am saying is physical attributes=traits, skills=production. Or something along those lines.
I know you probably cannot reveal how you operationalize something like route running. But could you give me a general idea? What do you look at? Is it the outcome of a play?

This post is already much longer than I anticipated but let me go back to the draft and video game. When scouting for the draft it makes sense not to use production because college ball is different from the NFL. So a WR got 1200 yards his junior year...means little. But grading NFL players based on their NFL production? Well that is better.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

From the other thread

"So you are telling me that if a WR averages 20 YPC he should be rated very fast"

No that is not what I am saying. You are putting words in my mouth.

What I meant was take any player and look at their production. Then you break it down and determine how he arrived at that. In your 20 ypc you break that down further. Look at his yac. On passes thrown to him look at how far the ball traveled in the air. Consider all those things and extrapolate ratings. Of course this matters more for the mental or skill ratings as opposed to the physical ratings. It varies by rating though.
Then if you converted the numbers properly, and the underlying code is adequate, the player should be a reasonable recreation of his real life self.

"I would rather quantify the parts of each player, add them all up, and see what the outcome is"
But we know roughly what the outcome ought to be.

I stated earlier that I was confused and I think I know why -- we are actually probably in agreement; we are just using different terminology. what I am saying is physical attributes=traits, skills=production. Or something along those lines.
I know you probably cannot reveal how you operationalize something like route running. But could you give me a general idea? What do you look at? Is it the outcome of a play?

This post is already much longer than I anticipated but let me go back to the draft and video game. When scouting for the draft it makes sense not to use production because college ball is different from the NFL. So a WR got 1200 yards his junior year...means little. But grading NFL players based on their NFL production? Well that is better.

Production never tells the whole story. Even great players can struggle to produce. Is Larry Fitzgerald a worse player now because he hasn't cracked 1000 receiving yards since 2011? That is why I don't trust stats. Stats don't tell me how fast, strong, agile a player is. They don't tell me how hard a QB throws a ball. That stuff is useless to me, and I don't/won't use it. I use the scouting data like every decent front office does.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

I can't talk about who provides the data, what team he works for, or give out the data in its primary form. What I can do is interpolate it freely and publish it under the guise of Madden ratings.

I choose not to discuss all of the details on how I rate players because I want sole ownership over how I do things. I have put in thousands of hours into this project since 2009, and to be honest, I want the credit for that work. I am willing to discuss theory, but not specifics.

Get what I am saying?

I think so.
You receive grades from a source and convert those grades to a Madden rating? I've got a background in statistical analysis so that part is fairly direct. And don't worry, I am not trying to move in on your action

I'm just wondering on things where that is not a obvious or direct statistical equivalent in what ways could you quantify it. Take route running. If you use Donny's system you just assign numbers at a whim. In what ways could you make route running empirical? Because depending on how the raw data collector operationalizes it the difference between your rating and Donny's rating may only be the distribution.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

Production never tells the whole story. Even great players can struggle to produce. Is Larry Fitzgerald a worse player now because he hasn't cracked 1000 receiving yards since 2011? That is why I don't trust stats. Stats don't tell me how fast, strong, agile a player is. They don't tell me how hard a QB throws a ball. That stuff is useless to me, and I don't/won't use it. I use the scouting data like every decent front office does.

Does not tell the whole story, but it does tell a good portion of it. What explains the drop in production for Larry?
"How fast, strong,agile...how hard a QB throws a ball"
Those are all physical though. Stats can tell you how skilled a player is in certain areas of the game. And I think it is fair to say that in the NFL the gap in physical ability is not quite as big as the gap in skills.
A WR's ability to gain separation, i.e. run routes, catch the ball, attack the ball at the highest point, get off the line, etc are greater predictors of success than 40times, cone drills, and the shuttle run.

The scouting data is derived from in game performance. And to me, in game performance falls under production. Production does not simply mean how many yards a QB threw for.