Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

[RaychelSnr]

One of the most intriguing things about Madden 15 is that the development team claims to have added more variance to the passing game, based on ratings. Well, given that one of my biggest complaints of the series has been how QB's have seemed automatic, I wanted to put this new aspect of the game to the test.

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[wallofhate]

Like someone wrote in a previous blog about this topic the difference between "elite" qbs and the run of the mill average qb isn't a large margin percentage wise so your findings are cool to the fact that madden actually kind of hits the nail on the head with this. Guess we gotta give credit where credit is due. Just weird when you play and they complete those percentages it feels like your getting roasted. It doesn't feel like you're forcing the qb top"settle" for what's available and preventing him from going where he wants. But all in all the game is good imo

[BenGerman]

Yeah, and I think that's really important to mention. Most QB's in the NFL are only separated by a thin margin, so there's really nothing wrong with the way this experiment went. I would say, just in the overall variety of throws, I didn't feel a huge difference with one QB over the other.

[Cardot]

It Maddens of the past, the game has played differently (and better) in practice mode than it has in other modes. I am not sure if that is the case with '15?

It would be nice for EA to figure this aspect of the game out. It has been a deterrent to the game for decades. QB's are too accurate, so offenses are too effective....Bandaid in some warping defenders....now too many interceptions, Bandaid in constant drops by defenders....and round and round we go with bandaids on top of bandaids.

[BenGerman]

Re: Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

It Maddens of the past, the game has played differently (and better) in practice mode than it has in other modes. I am not sure if that is the case with '15?

It would be nice for EA to figure this aspect of the game out. It has been a deterrent to the game for decades. QB's are too accurate, so offenses are too effective....Bandaid in some warping defenders....now too many interceptions, Bandaid in constant drops by defenders....and round and round we go with bandaids on top of bandaids.

I thought about this, too. I didn't want to count it as a variable because there is really no way of knowing if practice mode is different from everything else at this stage in the game, but you kinda just have to hope that it isn't. It wouldn't shock me, given that that's been a thing for almost a decade now.

[TMJOHNS18]

Re: Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

I guess you could have traded 2 of the QBs to one of the three teams and subbed them in during practice mode to eliminate the WR variable.

One thing I did notice in the little I've played in CFM, low rated QBs due tend to throw errant passes more often (which is given), but not on the level you'd expect when comparing an elite player like Manning and the some of the lowest FA QBs. Neither throw enough bad passes. Elite QBs, with time, still miss on throws or are slightly off, not center chest nearly every time.

Seems to me that the current separation between the very best and very worst reflects what I'd hope to see between 90s rated QBs and 80s rated QBs. Doesn't help CPU seems to nearly be perfect at passing when using higher rated QBs, just don't see much errant passes from them.

[bcruise]

Nice article. Can I assume that was on All-Pro with default sliders?

[Mos1ted]

I think human skill definitely plays a large factor. Even with the accuracy slider at 6, I can still take an inaccurate QB like Jake Locker and put the ball where I want it. Once I drop the slider to 1, now I'm having a harder time putting the ball where I want it. Then I bring in a slightly more accurate quarterback and notice right away that I can throw more consistently with him over Jake Locker. So for me, having the QB slider at 1 is probably going to be the ideal setting for me.

[Mos1ted]

Re: Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

I was going to make a thread for this article, but it seems better suited posted here:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pass-atlas-a-map-of-where-nfl-quarterbacks-throw-the-ball/

It’s very rare for an NFL quarterback to complete a pass in which the intended receiver is standing more than 45 yards from the line of scrimmage. In fact, NFL quarterbacks only attempted 175 such throws during the entire regular season last year, and only 48 resulted in completions. Joe Flacco was responsible for six of them.

Until recently, this kind of factoid was hard to uncover, but like every other sport, football’s analytics are evolving quickly. Thanks to new forms of data and emerging kinds of analyses, teams, media, and fans are gaining new insights into on-field performances. I have been exploring one such data set, a giant collection of highly detailed passing data created and maintained by ESPN’s Stats & Information group.

This was from data taken during the 2012 season.

[BenGerman]

Re: Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

Nice article. Can I assume that was on All-Pro with default sliders?

Thanks! And yep, I used default All-Pro the entire way through.

[therizing02]

Great work Ben. Not surprised by the results as I agree with the idea that the separation from the great to good, to average quarterback has a lot to do with more than just physical tools. See Jeff George.

An interesting experiment to try would be the CPU running the same plays. I have no issues with the USER offense vs. the CPU defense from a QB completion perspective. It's the CPU completion percentage, awareness in the pocket, and how they decide which receiver to throw the ball to on every given play.

Just to see the difference I played against Manziel with the Steelers on M25 last night. All Madden default with DPI at 20 and OPI at 19. Manziel had 6 passes that were off target. Most of them were in the 10-20 yard range. I don't think I've seen 6 off target passes in M15 in the last 5 games! It might be fair to say that the QB AI in M25 is better than it is in M15. BTW, I won the game 21-17!

[booker21]

I think human skill definitely plays a large factor. Even with the accuracy slider at 6, I can still take an inaccurate QB like Jake Locker and put the ball where I want it. Once I drop the slider to 1, now I'm having a harder time putting the ball where I want it. Then I bring in a slightly more accurate quarterback and notice right away that I can throw more consistently with him over Jake Locker. So for me, having the QB slider at 1 is probably going to be the ideal setting for me.

This is exaclty my poing. QB miss a few passes but not the amount i was expecting, specially for avg QB like Dalton, Hoyer etc

[satchmykels]

I dropped pass accuracy to 15 and bumped pass blocking up to 60 for both human and cpu. Thought I was getting pretty close to the sweet spot on all-pro but yup, might have to take it even lower.

[The JareBear]

Re: Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

This is exaclty my poing. QB miss a few passes but not the amount i was expecting, specially for avg QB like Dalton, Hoyer etc

Yeah I personally,believe the margin between quarterbacks in the league is much wider than represented in the game. The inaccurate passes "feature" this year has not quite lived up to my expectations

[Mos1ted]

Re: Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

Here's another good resource related to this topic: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

It tracks WR receptions, drops, and targets. Last year, Pierre Garcon and Andre Johnson led the league with 181 targets. Pierre Garcon caught 113 of those passes and dropped 7; Andre Johnson caught 108 and dropped 8. Since drops only caught the balls that hit the receiver's hand but he didn't catch, it can be assumed that the 61 passes thrown to Pierre Garcon were completely out of reach, reflecting the quarterback's accuracy. That means that one of out every three passes thrown his way were inaccurate.