[firesloth]

I commiserate with you. I tend to throw a lot of picks as well. My picks generally have 4 causes:

1) I anticipate that my receiver will actually battle the defender for the ball. This never happens. If I assume my receiver will be smart enough to undercut a zone defender when the ball is in the air or that he will make an adjustment on the long ball similar to that made by the defender, that's just me being dumb.

2) I still assume my QBs can put touch and loft on a deep ball...which they almost never do. My receiver may be open over the top, but if I can't get the ball over the defender, it doesn't matter.

3) I assume the QB will throw an intermediate ball with realistic arc...and he doesn't. Coupled with the (less egregious than they used to be) super-jumping LBs and CBs, this is an INT.

4) I have a brain fart and push the wrong button. Somehow this happens more than I'd like to admit.