OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

[1andonly]

I would first like to say that everyone at OS did a great job on the prospects in 2014. I had one major beef with it though. Based on professional scouting reports, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America, most of the prospects were grossly overrated. I would sim 5 years into the future only to find every team's 5th starter was around a 85-88 overall. On top of that nearly almost every prospect succeeded and became a star.

Over 20 simulations of a 5 year span had the top 100 prospects succeeding at a much higher than normal rate compared to that of real life.

Over the 5 years, on average, 82 of the top 100 prospects grew in potential. With an already inflated potential, they all soon became insane. There was always over 15 players with 99 potential.

The problem is, if you give a player 90 potential and he is in AA, after one year he will grow fast, regardless of if he plays poor or not. He will progress so fast that he will stay in the minor leagues but be so advanced that he dominates further increasing his potential and creating a snowball effect.

I would like to know what the OSFM roster community thought about the idea of creating a set of standards based on the top professional baseball scouts to help limit this. It would be nice after 5 years for 90+ overall to still be elite instead of 85-88 being an average starter.

[teeds]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

I would first like to say that everyone at OS did a great job on the prospects in 2014. I had one major beef with it though. Based on professional scouting reports, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball America, most of the prospects were grossly overrated. I would sim 5 years into the future only to find every team's 5th starter was around a 85-88 overall. On top of that nearly almost every prospect succeeded and became a star.

Over 20 simulations of a 5 year span had the top 100 prospects succeeding at a much higher than normal rate compared to that of real life.

Over the 5 years, on average, 82 of the top 100 prospects grew in potential. With an already inflated potential, they all soon became insane. There was always over 15 players with 99 potential.

The problem is, if you give a player 90 potential and he is in AA, after one year he will grow fast, regardless of if he plays poor or not. He will progress so fast that he will stay in the minor leagues but be so advanced that he dominates further increasing his potential and creating a snowball effect.

I would like to know what the OSFM roster community thought about the idea of creating a set of standards based on the top professional baseball scouts to help limit this. It would be nice after 5 years for 90+ overall to still be elite instead of 85-88 being an average starter.

If you read around the OSFM thread you'll see that this has already been mentioned and there is an effort being made to bring more uniformity to the prospect ratings. There's even a big 'ol spreadsheet to view and share your opinion on ratings.

[sxaalex]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

If you read around the OSFM thread you'll see that this has already been mentioned and there is an effort being made to bring more uniformity to the prospect ratings. There's even a big 'ol spreadsheet to view and share your opinion on ratings.

I think you need to check in teams like A's,Marlins,Giants and white sox on prospect rating and potential.Im not sure if others are grasp with what was mention in the hybrid thread.I recall ridin mention he would check on every team prospect rating and potential before the actually osfm release.

[teeds]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

I think you need to check in teams like A's,Marlins,Giants and white sox on prospect rating and potential.Im not sure if others are grasp with what was mention in the hybrid thread.I recall ridin mention he would check on every team prospect rating and potential before the actually osfm release.

I cannot stress this enough - all the information is laid out for you to view on the spreadsheet. EVERY team will be looked over and many already have. If you want input, look at the spreadsheet and post your thoughts. This is supposed to be a community project. We can't have fly-by "check this, check that." Check who and why? The comments need to be more specific.

[1andonly]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

If you read around the OSFM thread you'll see that this has already been mentioned and there is an effort being made to bring more uniformity to the prospect ratings. There's even a big 'ol spreadsheet to view and share your opinion on ratings.

Where exactly is the spreadsheet? In the 2015 recruiting thread?

[Willard76]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Where exactly is the spreadsheet? In the 2015 recruiting thread?

Yes. It is posted several times as well as the second post of the Hybrid thread

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Yes. It is posted several times as well as the second post of the Hybrid thread

And here it is again:

https://docs.google.com/a/mail.buffa...it?pli=1#gid=0

Tell us what you think..if people make good points, they certainly could be incorporated into the roster.

[dbacks6]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Okay this is probably a stupid question, but is that spreadsheet what all the players will be rated in the first 2015 hybrid roster? or is that what they ended 2014 at?

[CubsWillRiseAgain]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Think you guys may have Jorge Soler a bit undervalued. He has huge power, and a better hit tool than 57. Can also cover ground in the outfield better than some think too.

[teeds]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Okay this is probably a stupid question, but is that spreadsheet what all the players will be rated in the first 2015 hybrid roster? or is that what they ended 2014 at?

Think you guys may have Jorge Soler a bit undervalued. He has huge power, and a better hit tool than 57. Can also cover ground in the outfield better than some think too.

Let me explain because I'm sure many are wondering what they're looking at. The current version of our spreadsheet is still a work in progress. Right now we are finishing up the process of transferring over ratings and info from our latest hybrid roster. If a player is in bold font, that means we've transferred over his ratings from our roster. What you see now ratings wise will not necessarily be what you see once the game drops. The benefit of this tedious work is it allows us to take note of any inaccuracies that need to be corrected. We'll have a few weeks after we complete this spreadsheet to go back and review thousands of players and make changes.

We've already input new speed and defensive ratings for many major leaguers. We'll also do the same for prospects and in fact have already made numerous adjustments. We track our changes by leaving notes near a players name. You should be able to view who has been updated and when if browsing the spreadsheet.

Additionally, there's now two columns for contract info. We're going to take a closer look at batter splits soon. Pitch repertoires for minor leaguers will be adjusted now that it'd be easier to see which guys are incorrect. There's still more to be done. We who work on this also have busy lives and have chosen this roster as our time consuming hobby to combat the winter doldrums. The more eyes we can get on this, the more info that can be passed along to improve the roster and the game, the better.

I haven't even mentioned face and equipment accuracy which need as much attention as the ratings and is worthy of a discussion also.

[CubsWillRiseAgain]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Let me explain because I'm sure many are wondering what they're looking at. The current version of our spreadsheet is still a work in progress. Right now we are finishing up the process of transferring over ratings and info from our latest hybrid roster. If a player is in bold font, that means we've transferred over his ratings from our roster. What you see now ratings wise will not necessarily be what you see once the game drops. The benefit of this tedious work is it allows us to take note of any inaccuracies that need to be corrected. We'll have a few weeks after we complete this spreadsheet to go back and review thousands of players and make changes.

We've already input new speed and defensive ratings for many major leaguers. We'll also do the same for prospects and in fact have already made numerous adjustments. We track our changes by leaving notes near a players name. You should be able to view who has been updated and when if browsing the spreadsheet.

Additionally, there's now two columns for contract info. We're going to take a closer look at batter splits soon. Pitch repertoires for minor leaguers will be adjusted now that it'd be easier to see which guys are incorrect. There's still more to be done. We who work on this also have busy lives and have chosen this roster as our time consuming hobby to combat the winter doldrums. The more eyes we can get on this, the more info that can be passed along to improve the roster and the game, the better.

I haven't even mentioned face and equipment accuracy which need as much attention as the ratings and is worthy of a discussion also.

Thanks for the info (:

[dbacks6]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Just a suggestion: AJ Pollock deserves a higher potential than 74 and also probably better contact and power ratings. Pollock was probably gonna be an all star last season until he broke his hand. Also, Chris Owings is regarded as the shortstop of the future and should at least be an 80 potential, if not higher. And with the Diamondbacks relief prospect Will Locante, it should be noted he throws consistently in the upper 90s and can touch 100. Thanks for all the hard work btw. These are just some suggestions based on what I've heard out of spring and the stats they put up last season.

[teeds]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Just a suggestion: AJ Pollock deserves a higher potential than 74 and also probably better contact and power ratings. Pollock was probably gonna be an all star last season until he broke his hand. Also, Chris Owings is regarded as the shortstop of the future and should at least be an 80 potential, if not higher. And with the Diamondbacks relief prospect Will Locante, it should be noted he throws consistently in the upper 90s and can touch 100. Thanks for all the hard work btw. These are just some suggestions based on what I've heard out of spring and the stats they put up last season.

great info, thank you. if you look now, Mr. Pollock got a nice boost.

let's get more sharing and input like this please.

[nola2728]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

I would like to see Kevin Kiermaier fielding boosted from 69. This kid was known for his gold glove caliber defense and honestly was really the only reason he was considered a prospect for us. His bat totally surprised the rays when he arrived to the majors. He is hands down already the Rays best defensive player on the roster. I realize that he just broke into majors last year.




I also would like to see souza and Robertson potential boosted to atleast 85 or 86.


Daniel Robertson, SS, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 20, acquired from Athletics in Ben Zobrist trade, hit .310/.402/./471 with 37 doubles, 15 homers, 72 walks, 94 strikeouts in 548 at-bats in High-A. On-base player with doubles power, questions here are defense (he is likely to be second baseman in the long run, especially with other prospects in this system) and power projection at the highest levels (it is always best to confirm Cal League numbers elsewhere). Projects as a regular.


2) Steven Souza, OF, Grade B+/Borderline B: Age 25, hit .345/.427/.577 with 18 homers, 28 steals, 52 walks, 80 strikeouts in 357 at-bats in the Nationals system, traded to Tampa as part of Myers deal. Nothing left to prove in the minors, power/speed combination is enticing as well as legitimate, tools have always been here. Career has been marked by a PED suspension, off-field issues (which seem resolved now), injuries and strikeouts but he’s done good work reducing the latter and improving his strike zone judgment. Draws Jayson Werth comps but Nelson Cruz is another parallel.


Thanks

[seanjeezy]

Re: OSFM 2015 Prospect Ratings

Those look like Sickels' grades, correct? The little blurbs are actually more important than the actual grades, because his letter grades don't translate 1:1 with overall in the game.

It looks like both have relatively low risk factors, which means there's a good chance both will actually hit their potential.

For Robertson, "projects as a regular" could mean anything between a C+ and a B-, and after messing with the ratings a bit, I see something around 80-81 being a good fit.

For Souza, "Draws Jayson Werth comps but Nelson Cruz is another parallel" would be around an 85, and he actually rates out pretty close to that (maybe a tick under). Personally I would say an 83-85.