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Originally Posted by bcruise |
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Video's not finished uploading but I'll go ahead and post my analysis. It should show up once it finishes uploading.
So, here's what's going on. I fired up the community challenge mode and, with the autohit tool, set up a scenario to hit the ball in the exact same place with three different center fielders. It's not identical to the OP's, but it's close enough because it's hitting low off the wall (that's what the marker on the wall means - once you see that it's basically never lying, unlike the marker in mid-flight). I recorded my setting the auto-hit parameters so you can duplicate this if you want - anyone can do this on their game.
I did 10 attempts with each fielder.
1st is Colin Cowgill, backup LAA outfielder with a 59 Fielding rating (secondary CF position). Pay attention to where the landing marker goes before finally appearing on the wall, not where my fielder is positioned. It's all in the same general area, but by no means is it shrinking on the exact same spot every time. Once the ball is near the wall the game switches the marker onto the wall to reflect its true landing spot. For this one, I'd say 4 is probably the most egregious example of the marker "lying" - if I tried to camp under that marker I'd miss it entirely. Early on in this test I even wanted to follow the marker a bit too much despite knowing where the ball was going. That got better later. 
Next is Trout, one of the highest fielding ratings in the game. By and large his last marker positions are very accurate, although he has one (attempt 6) that's a little sketchy - which shows that no one is immune to mistakes in this game. If the ball is hit any harder on a line that becomes a very tough play to position for.
3rd is a back up 2B that I play out of position, and here's where it really gets crazy. 5 is one of the worst marker misreads I have ever seen, comparable to the OP's and the whole thing is really a crap shoot with some markers acting like they'll leave the yard and others like 4 in the first fielder test, looking like they'd land on the warning track.
There are two important things to take from this:
1: The ball marker system is absolutely working as intended. It does "lie" at times, but that's due to the fielder's ratings and can greatly affect the user's ability to get in position for a catch.
2: I caught EVERY LAST ONE of those balls, regardless of where the marker was headed, because I knew exactly where the ball was going. The game did not force me to miss a single one because I wasn't lined up with the marker. Get too reliant on the visual aids and you can potentially pay for it.
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bcruise, thanks for your very well thought out insight on this subject. My situation I was having is a bit different because the fly ball wasn't anywhere near the wall but right in the open of the field, not in the gap or anywhere where the fielder had to travel a good distance. However, is there any way that replicating those situations using community challenges could change the way the A.I. behaves? (I know you probably cant say for sure, not being a developer but I know you have a lot more time under your belt playing the show than I do) but since using community challenges its not playing a full game, but just scenarios. I only ask because most of the time I see these thing happening to me when I'm winning by quite a bit of runs and more or less being one sided games. any thoughts?