NL Central April Report
Milwaukee Brewers 17-5
Chicago Cubs 13-9 4.0 GB
Pittsburgh Pirates 11-11 6.0 GB
St. Louis Cardinals 9-13 8.0 GB
Cincinnati Reds 7-16 10.5 GB
Going into the season, everyone expected the Cardinals and Pirates to fight for the top of the division. The Cubs and Brewers were expected to compete for Wild Card spots, and the Reds were expected to be sellers at the deadline and go into a rebuild.
After the first month, the pundits were right about the Cubs and Reds. They were way off about the Brewers. Going into May, the Brewers have a commanding 4 game lead in the division thanks to a MLB leading .298 team average. Led by former MVP Ryan Braun (.413/.488/.733) and off-season acquisition Adam Lind (.406/.474/.710), the Brewers are surprising the MLB world as they currently have the best record in baseball. Not to be outdone by the offense, the pitching staff is 4th in baseball in ERA, led by the constantly underappreciated Kyle Lohse (4-0 1.44 ERA).
The Cardinals and Pirates have disappointed thus far as they stand in 4th and 3rd place in the division, respectively. The Pirates are being undone by a porous pitching staff that is currently 24th in baseball in ERA (4.54) and is undercutting a pretty solid start for the offense. Pedro Alvarez (.284/.338/.554) is off to a hot start and is producing the way the club always thought he would. McCutchen (.280/.364/.441) is off to a bit of a slow start by his MVP standards, but the lineup as a whole has only 2 regulars hitting under .280. As for the Cardinals, they’re in the middle of the pack in pitching (13th 3.74 ERA) and hitting (12th .266) but it’s not quite translating to success thanks to a lack of clutch hitting. Only 3 regulars are hitting over .200 with runners in scoring position, which is a stark change from last season when they hit nearly .280 as a team in those situations. Expect some regression back to the mean for the Cardinals and for them to being their move back toward the top of the division.
The Reds are probably starting to make calls about unloading some of their high-priced talent. Johnny Cueto (2-1 1.83 ERA) should be a hot commodity, but the team really needs Jay Bruce to show some power (1 HR in 78 ABs) so his trade value grows. Joey Votto (.343/.427/.471) is doing his usual thing, but his contract will be an issue if the front office decides to try to move him.