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Old 07-13-2015, 11:03 AM   #406
briz1046
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Re: Donny Moore, the 'Madden Ratings Czar', Leaving EA

Quote:
Originally Posted by DCEBB2001
Back up the train here. I never said that PFF wasn't valuable for something. PFF would be great for assigning traits to players in the game as they would likely follow tendencies - something PFF does quite well. I just don't believe that they are as valid for deriving the ratings themselves. The scouts do provide the data, but they don't make the picks. If I had a dollar for every time a GM went against the data to make a player selection...some of these guys (especially some of the more meddlesome owners) really just pick whoever the heck they want without using any data. It's happened before and will happen again. We are talking about billionaires who treat their teams as their hobbies, not the source of their wealth.

As for the 40s and their splits, I do follow the data from sources like speedendurance.com. They track particular sprints in the 100m dash for players throughout their careers. Keep in mind that many of these players still run 40s throughout their careers while training in the offseason. I know for a fact that under Holmgren, all players (including vets) still had to run timed 40s prior to training camps. It was part of their offseason schedule to evaluate everyone on their roster to see who was already in playing shape before camps began (they did other conditioning tests too, but that it besides the point).

The data that I get on NFL players' 40 times shows undoubtedly that players tend to lose about .005s on a 40 for every year in the league after being drafted. That is an average that includes guys who get hurt and guys who don't. It includes all positions (yes, some are more prone to losing more speed, likely through injury). Some players stay about the same after 10 seasons, while some drop off tremendously. It all depends on each individual player. I think I posted some of these in-house times on a forum here, but I don't remember which one.

The point is that I do have data for older players who recent timed in for their teams, and am building a model as we speak to include such data.
Good to hear
I'm sure your correct in many cases as to scouting data being over - ruled or ignored but nevertheless no scout or source is infallible
As for PFF data I agree it's not designed as a source for rating individual player attributes but valid for comparing how different players should acredit themselves
Glad to hear you update your 40 times etc where possible and have a model for speed regression at hand . As I stated I believe track athletes often peak in their late 20s but on average would not be subject to the same wear and tear as their NFL counterparts who indeed may peak in this respect as rookies
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