Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

Does anyone know where I can find historical rookie rating data?

Specifically, I'm interested in rookie QBs and their speed rating.

What kind of data? Like the old madden ratings?

[mjavon]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

What kind of data? Like the old madden ratings?

Yes, as in what their "out-of-the-box" speed rating was when they were rookies. I want to pair this with their combine 40 times because I'm curious to see how well they line up.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

Yes, as in what their "out-of-the-box" speed rating was when they were rookies. I want to pair this with their combine 40 times because I'm curious to see how well they line up.

It's about 95% correlation for all positions. I already did this years ago. Madden does use 40 times, erroneously. However, you must also consider the 40 time source. You cannot cite the times posted on NFL Network and NFL.com as these are rarely accurate to the actual times released to the teams about a week after the combine is completed. In fact, the actual P3DX timer (the electronic timer) breaks about 1 in every 10 attempts. So a player may actually run a 4.50, but will be erroneously credited with an electronic time of 4.70, or vice versus. No joke.

The best thing you can do is get the best handheld and electronic times to compare every player going back to when electronic timing was introduced (1996). Chad Reuter wrote a great article for when he worked with NFLDS back in the mid to late 2000s. Here's a quote from that article, published on 4/13/2009:

All NFL teams have their own stopwatches -- thus, their own times -- while the National Football Scouting Service provides hand-held stopwatch numbers from two scouts as well as an electronic time for each player. The electronic time is not a true electronic time; a person manually starts the timer. League sources also have said the times labeled by NFL Network as "official" actually come from a scout seated in the stands in direct view of the finish line.
Clearly, the potential for variation exists when so many observers are "on the clock."
It's easy to see where times eventually made available to the public can skew high or low. In the data below, the fastest 40 time for each player was gathered from various sources of historical information available to nfldraftscout.com.


Once again, you must consider your sources and their inherent validity before conducting your experiment.

EDIT:

In addition, please keep in mind that 40 times should NEVER equate to the SPD rating. Since Madden defines the top end speed as the speed rating, you should find the top end speed for every player using the split times and a subsequent cubic function. This will tell you who is REALLY the fastest player in the NFL.

[mjavon]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

It's about 95% correlation for all positions. I already did this years ago. Madden does use 40 times, erroneously. However, you must also consider the 40 time source. You cannot cite the times posted on NFL Network and NFL.com as these are rarely accurate to the actual times released to the teams about a week after the combine is completed. In fact, the actual P3DX timer (the electronic timer) breaks about 1 in every 10 attempts. So a player may actually run a 4.50, but will be erroneously credited with an electronic time of 4.70, or vice versus. No joke.

The best thing you can do is get the best handheld and electronic times to compare every player going back to when electronic timing was introduced (1996). Chad Reuter wrote a great article for when he worked with NFLDS back in the mid to late 2000s. Here's a quote from that article, published on 4/13/2009:

All NFL teams have their own stopwatches -- thus, their own times -- while the National Football Scouting Service provides hand-held stopwatch numbers from two scouts as well as an electronic time for each player. The electronic time is not a true electronic time; a person manually starts the timer. League sources also have said the times labeled by NFL Network as "official" actually come from a scout seated in the stands in direct view of the finish line.
Clearly, the potential for variation exists when so many observers are "on the clock."
It's easy to see where times eventually made available to the public can skew high or low. In the data below, the fastest 40 time for each player was gathered from various sources of historical information available to nfldraftscout.com.


Once again, you must consider your sources and their inherent validity before conducting your experiment.

EDIT:

In addition, please keep in mind that 40 times should NEVER equate to the SPD rating. Since Madden defines the top end speed as the speed rating, you should find the top end speed for every player using the split times and a subsequent cubic function. This will tell you who is REALLY the fastest player in the NFL.

Do you still have the data set you used, and if so, could I get a copy of it? Which 40-time did you end up going with? I would guess that EA would've used the NFL.com numbers (maybe I'm wrong) to help them determine the rating.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

Do you still have the data set you used, and if so, could I get a copy of it? Which 40-time did you end up going with? I would guess that EA would've used the NFL.com numbers (maybe I'm wrong) to help them determine the rating.

Well I have all of the actual PDFs for every combine going back to 1996, so I use the best overall time for each player. This way, every player gets credit for their best time and you can easily identify when the P3DX breaks. In addition, most players only get one best time at their pro day, so this allows us to compare apples to apples instead of simply going off of the electronic time and guessing the differentiation between the two.

The best electronic and hand times are recorded on NFLDS, so go there. I no longer have the past Madden sheets, but you may be able to find them online somewhere and conduct your own analysis.

[mjavon]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

Well I have all of the actual PDFs for every combine going back to 1996, so I use the best overall time for each player. This way, every player gets credit for their best time and you can easily identify when the P3DX breaks. In addition, most players only get one best time at their pro day, so this allows us to compare apples to apples instead of simply going off of the electronic time and guessing the differentiation between the two.

The best electronic and hand times are recorded on NFLDS, so go there. I no longer have the past Madden sheets, but you may be able to find them online somewhere and conduct your own analysis.

Awesome, thanks for the insight!

Enough of this tangent for now, the rest of you may go back to arguing about who should be rated what 😃

[JOS1181]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

Tannehill threw for over 4000 yards 27 td's and 12 ints. Against NFL defenses. Winston has 0, 0, and 0. Against NFL defenses.

Winston threw 18 ints in only 14 games against College defenses. Mmm

Key word College. Lol


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And Tannehill threw 15 his final year in college. Big whoop? I am sure Winston will have a better year Tannehills first year of 12 TDs and 13 TDs.

Anyway I think Winstons ratings are about right. I think people will be surprised at how well he moves despite his 40 time.

[charter04]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

And Tannehill threw 15 his final year in college. Big whoop? I am sure Winston will have a better year Tannehills first year of 12 TDs and 13 TDs.



Anyway I think Winstons ratings are about right. I think people will be surprised at how well he moves despite his 40 time.

I'm sure RG3 will be a great pro too. Oh wait.

It's not about Tannehill v Winston. I didn't make that original comparison. It's about letting Winston prove it on the field. He's done nothing yet. Just like lots of "can't miss" 1st round QB's.


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[JOS1181]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

I'm sure RG3 will be a great pro too. Oh wait.

It's not about Tannehill v Winston. I didn't make that original comparison. It's about letting Winston prove it on the field. He's done nothing yet. Just like lots of "can't miss" 1st round QB's.


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What does RG3 have to do with anything?

I dont want to get into anything with anyone but you specifically mentioned Tannehills 3rd year in the NFL and Winstons 18 INTs last year against " college " defenses. And I countered with Tannehills final college year and his poor rookie season.

Of course Winston has to prove he can play as every rookie in the draft does every single year. But you are all over the place trying to disguise your dislike of a player.

Lets get back on topic about ratings.

[Number999]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

What does RG3 have to do with anything?

I dont want to get into anything with anyone but you specifically mentioned Tannehills 3rd year in the NFL and Winstons 18 INTs last year against " college " defenses. And I countered with Tannehills final college year and his poor rookie season.

Of course Winston has to prove he can play as every rookie in the draft does every single year. But you are all over the place trying to disguise your dislike of a player.

Lets get back on topic about ratings.

What point are you trying to make? He's not debating if Winston will be better than Tannehill's rookie year, he's debating that what Tannehill proved last season warrants him being well rated above Winston, which is a clearly fair statement considering Jameis hasn't done anything.

But NDAlum already told us to get off this topic so that's all I have left to say.

[fmw32]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

And Tannehill threw 15 his final year in college. Big whoop? I am sure Winston will have a better year Tannehills first year of 12 TDs and 13 TDs.

Anyway I think Winstons ratings are about right. I think people will be surprised at how well he moves despite his 40 time.

That's what I mean don't just look at the tape it doesn't lie. He still has to prove it obviously but he's a better prospect than Tannehill already

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[DCEBB2001]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

That's what I mean don't just look at the tape it doesn't lie. He still has to prove it obviously but he's a better prospect than Tannehill already

Well I don't rate players like EA, but here are the grades I have for each of them:

Tannehill: 6.33
Winston: 5.98

I wouldn't say that Winston is better than Tannehill yet based on my scouting sources.

[fmw32]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

I guess that's fair only until Winston proves it on the field

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[Playmakers]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

Winston should be at least an 83

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I've never understood why people debate if a guy should be 1-2 points higher in his overall.

It's not like he's going to play any better or any worse because of that small difference. I mean seriously when you play the game this year i can gurantee you at no time wil you think about winston throwing a incomplete pass because ea rated him a 81 instead of 83 overall.

if he was a 75 overall he'd still most ikely perform as if he was rated higher because chances are the only difference between him being a 75 and 81 is his speed probably being boosted up just to get him to a certain point to satisfy the order of the rosters for ranking purposes.

He's still going to throw the same passes with the same type of accuracy regardless of that 2 point difference you suggested.

[fmw32]

Re: Madden NFL 16 Rookie Ratings Revealed - Top 10

I agree with that

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