A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

[DCEBB2001]

One of the areas where the Madden video game series can improve upon their existing CFM model is within the draft pick trade logic. Often users are compelled to ask their peers about advice for "realistic" draft trades that would mimic the real-life value placed upon draft picks.

For pick-to-pick transactions (trades), most NFL teams still refer to the draft pick trade chart that correlates an estimated value for each pick to the pick number. For those unfamiliar with this chart, you can find a version of it here:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

One of the more nebulous interactions occurs when attempting to trade draft picks for players. All too often one can find it too easy to acquire starter-caliber talent via trading away draft picks, yet, many NFL teams tend to hang onto those picks as if they were worth billions in revenue. Most notably, the Green Bay Packers' GM Ted Thompson has been notorious for refusing to part with draft picks for players since taking over the position in 2005. He values his draft picks so much, that he refused to trade a 4th round pick for Randy Moss prior to his record-setting season in 2007.

In an effort to find the true value of draft picks in the NFL, and create a model that could be incorporated into Madden, I have analyzed over 118 pick-for-player trades going back to 2000 in the NFL. Using FBG Ratings historical scouting data, I was able to assign a value to each player at the time of their trade, to the day they were traded. These values were set equal to the amount of draft pick points used to acquire the player.

Trades involving multiple players were not admitted into this study as it limits the ability to isolate the value of each individual player and compare it to the number of draft pick points needed to make the acquisition. It is assumed that the trade was of equal value for each team.

Once the player grades were mapped to the draft pick value points needed to acquire the player, an exponential regression was applied to the values. This regression yielded an accurate model that represents how many draft pick points are needed to acquire a player of a particular value. Using intervals of one-tenth of a grade point for the player overall values, you find the following chart that correlates player value to draft pick points. Also included is a current NFL player graded at the same grade level from this past July along with a possible draft picks that would be needed to acquire the player. This list is not to say that a team WILL trade these picks for the player, but that an equal value of player for picks is indicated below:

Grade Points Player Picks
10.00 3181.4 JJ.Watt #1, #81
9.40 1456.6 A.Rodgers #7
8.80 876.1 D.Bryant #18
8.50 709.4 A.Brown #25
8.30 622.1 D.Thomas #29
8.10 548.6 H.Ngata #35
7.90 485.8 N.Suh #41
7.70 431.6 A.Jeffrey #46
7.50 384.2 J.Thomas #51
7.30 342.4 M.Stafford #55
7.10 305.3 KJ.Wright #59
6.90 272.1 C.Kaepernick #63
6.70 242.2 E.Manning #69
6.50 215.1 A.Ellington #75
6.30 190.4 O.Scandrick #80
6.10 167.8 E.Ansah #84
5.90 147.1 B.Quick #88
5.70 127.9 D.Butler #93
5.50 110.2 K.Golston #97
5.30 93.7 M.Rivera #101
5.10 78.4 O.Bolden #107
4.90 64.0 C.Gray #115
4.70 50.6 N.Robey #121
4.50 38.0 P.Hunt #136
4.30 26.1 S.Mason #163
4.10 14.8 A.Bonner #191
3.90 4.2 D.Lynch #218

Based upon this valuation, elite players would require at least high 1st round picks. Perennial all-pros would also require at least a late 1st/early 2nd round pick to acquire. Solid starters could be had for a 2nd or 3rd round pick, and solid backups could be traded for 4th and 5th rounders. It is usually found that developmental players are acquired for late round picks.

What was newly found to me was how much value the draft picks had for all-pro-type players. I would have figured that it would take at least a mid-first-round pick to acquire them, but players like Ngata and Suh could be had for a 2nd round pick. That may indicate that draft pick value outweighs current player value more than one would anticipate. The fact that a top 100 player (like Eli Manning) could be had for only a 3rd round pick is surprising.

In conclusion, a model similar to this one could be developed and incorporated into the Madden video game series to better enhance the trade logic, especially regarding draft picks. This could better replicate the true value of draft picks as they are compared against OVR values of the current players in the game.

[NateDogPack12]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

If someone called up the Green Bay Packers and offered merely the seventh pick in the draft for Aaron Rodgers, Ted Thompson would get a great chuckle and then hang up the phone. For the most part, this approximate value calculation plays out exactly as I would expect, but elite Quarterbacks are another matter entirely.

[Ueauvan]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

i also believe the draft trade chart is out of date, iirc it was created to figure out the financial implications of a trade before rookie max % age of total cap and fixed rookie salaries came into being. realistically it needs to be updated and refer to the rookie fixed salary scale. all of which is irrelevant, if you have a need for qb and theres one in the draft, you will do what you can to get that pick or not trade if you have the pick

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

If someone called up the Green Bay Packers and offered merely the seventh pick in the draft for Aaron Rodgers, Ted Thompson would get a great chuckle and then hang up the phone. For the most part, this approximate value calculation plays out exactly as I would expect, but elite Quarterbacks are another matter entirely.

Right, and I made it quite clear that these are merely what the equal value would be based upon 15 years of historical data of player grades vs. pick value to acquire the player. It has nothing to do with the asking price. There are several examples from the sample data where the actual price it took to acquire the player lied above the line for which the draft point value was set.

In 2013, Darrelle Revis had a grade of 8.42 and should have commanded an equal value of 672 draft points; basically a #27 overall pick. However, what he went for was a #13 and #104, a total of 1236 draft points. This illustrates that his "market value" was set higher than his "true trade value" if you will. The same happened for Carson Palmer in 2011 where his 6.01 grade was far surpassed by by a value of 1480 draft points whereas he should have only been set equal to 158 points, or #86 overall.

So once again, this doesn't really have anything to do with the asking value, but rather, is based upon the true value of the player over the course of a sample of 118 trades. The study does have its limitations, as I pointed out in the original post.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

if you have a need for qb and theres one in the draft, you will do what you can to get that pick or not trade if you have the pick

This is more of a preference. Some GMs will pick for need, while others will pick for value. It just depends on your GM's preference.

[jhigginsluckow]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

This is tough for me to give an opinion on because in my opinion, 90%+ of people don't understand quite how valuable draft picks are. It's not merely about the quality of the player you draft, but also their low cap number. With a low cap number, not only do you get that potentially talented player, but you can also sign another quality player with the extra cap money you saved.

Very simply, take the Dez Bryant value. It says he should be worth the #18 pick in the draft. The 18th pick in the draft makes what, probably $5m a year in salary on average? Dez just signed an extension giving him $14m a year (I believe). So while I think most people will rush to judgment and say no way would Dallas trade Dez for only the 18th pick, you have to think about it a little deeper. It's not just Dez Bryant for the 18th pick, it's Dez Bryant for the 18th pick AND $9m in cap space you can use toward someone else. Torrey Smith just signed with San Francisco recently at about $8m a year. Torrey Smith + the 18th overall pick for Dez Bryant suddenly doesn't sound so ridiculous.

It's the very premise Chip Kelly made the LeSean McCoy trade on. It wasn't just McCoy for Kiko Alonso - it was McCoy for Alonso plus a ton of Cap savings (which he blew on crap players, but that's besides the point).

HOWEVER, I do think that the sniff test needs to be done here. The idea that JJ Watt is worth more than Aaron Rodgers, for example, is absurd. Quarterbacks need to have a scale made for them all on their own if this is to work, in my opinion.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

This is tough for me to give an opinion on because in my opinion, 90%+ of people don't understand quite how valuable draft picks are. It's not merely about the quality of the player you draft, but also their low cap number. With a low cap number, not only do you get that potentially talented player, but you can also sign another quality player with the extra cap money you saved.

Very simply, take the Dez Bryant value. It says he should be worth the #18 pick in the draft. The 18th pick in the draft makes what, probably $5m a year in salary on average? Dez just signed an extension giving him $14m a year (I believe). So while I think most people will rush to judgment and say no way would Dallas trade Dez for only the 18th pick, you have to think about it a little deeper. It's not just Dez Bryant for the 18th pick, it's Dez Bryant for the 18th pick AND $9m in cap space you can use toward someone else. Torrey Smith just signed with San Francisco recently at about $8m a year. Torrey Smith + the 18th overall pick for Dez Bryant suddenly doesn't sound so ridiculous.

It's the very premise Chip Kelly made the LeSean McCoy trade on. It wasn't just McCoy for Kiko Alonso - it was McCoy for Alonso plus a ton of Cap savings (which he blew on crap players, but that's besides the point).

HOWEVER, I do think that the sniff test needs to be done here. The idea that JJ Watt is worth more than Aaron Rodgers, for example, is absurd. Quarterbacks need to have a scale made for them all on their own if this is to work, in my opinion.

I don't think the the word "absurd" is really the right way to describe it. I think that within the limitations of the test, it works. Once again, this wasn't done down to the positional level, as I wouldn't even have enough data points to conduct a real SRS (30+ samples) for each position group. We can see by looking at some of the individual grades that most QBs went for far fewer draft points than anticipated by the model.

Let's look at all of the QBs from this sample data set:

1. Matt Schaub was traded for a mere 19 points when he had a grade of 7.35. In this model, he should have been traded for 352 points. He was undervalued.

2. Alex Smith had a grade of 6.25 and was traded for 900 draft points. His value indicated that he should have been traded for 185 points. He was overvalued.

3. Carson Palmer (2011) had a grade of 6.01 and was traded for 1480 points when he should have been traded for 158 points. He was overvalued.

4. Matt Cassel (2015) had a grade of 5.95 and was traded for 34 points. He should have been traded for 152 points. He was undervalued.

5. Carson Palmer (2013) had a grade of 5.81 and was traded for 17.3 points. He should have been traded for 138 points. He was undervalued.

6. Colt McCoy had a grade of 5.53 and was traded for 4.7 points. He should have been traded for 112 points. He was undervalued.

7. Blaine Gabbert had a grade of 5.51 and was traded for 9.4 points. He should have been traded for 111 points. He was undervalued.

8. Matt Flynn had a grade of 5.38 and was traded for 41.2 points. He should have been traded for 100 points. He was undervalued.

9. Case Keenum had a grade of 5.31 and was traded for 8.2 points. He should have been traded for 94 points. He was undervalued.

10. Ryan Mallett had a grade of 5.30 and was traded for 8.2 points. He should have been traded for 93 points. He was undervalued.

11. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a grade of 5.21 and was traded for 8.2 points. He should have been traded for 86 points. He was undervalued.

12. Matt Barkley had a grade of 5.04 and was traded for 8.2 points. He should have been traded for 73 points. He was undervalued.

13. Matt Cassel (2015 again) had a grade of 5.04 and was traded for 29.5 points. He should have been traded for 73 points. He was undervalued.

14. Joey Harrington had a grade of 4.87 and was traded for 21 points. He should have been traded for 61 points. He was undervalued.

15. Matt Schaub (2007) had a grade of 4.58 and was traded for 1030 points. He should have been traded for 42 points. He was overvalued.

16. Drew Stanton had a grade of 4.36 and was traded for 18.6 points. He should have been traded for 29 points. He was undervalued.

17. Cody Pickett had a grade of 3.96 and was traded for 8.2 points. He should have been traded for 7 points. He was overvalued.



Of the 17 QBs traded for picks only since 2000, only 4 were acquired for more points than they were worth based upon their grade. The other 13 QBs were undervalued compared to the rational function line. Over-evaluation occurred at both the low end and high end of the grading scale. To this point, it appears that QBs were actually undervalued far more often than they were overvalued. Another scale could be made for QBs altogether, but I would need a larger sample size to do it. Perhaps I can revisit that in a few more years when more QBs are traded.

[RogueHominid]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

Love this data.

It'd be great to have Madden's trade logic for players and picks governed by data gleaned from historical analysis.

Obviously, once you enter your CFM, you're entering a self-contained, dynamic universe, but I'd love it if the general rules governing trading had some 10-15 year data from longitudinal studies behind it.

Maybe it does already, IDK, but this data is great as a conversation starter.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

Love this data.

It'd be great to have Madden's trade logic for players and picks governed by data gleaned from historical analysis.

Obviously, once you enter your CFM, you're entering a self-contained, dynamic universe, but I'd love it if the general rules governing trading had some 10-15 year data from longitudinal studies behind it.

Maybe it does already, IDK, but this data is great as a conversation starter.

And that is the idea - to start a conversation about such things. Personally, I know that when it comes to PICKING QBs in the draft, they are often very overvalued. In other words, they are often selected higher than what their grade indicates.

I would have expected the same thing to hold true when it comes to TRADING draft picks for QBs - you overpay to get one. However, that doesn't seem to be the case. As I pointed out in a previous post in this thread, of the 17 QBs included in this analysis, only 4 were deemed to be "overvalued" by the present model. That is very surprising.

Let me pull together some data for QBs selected in the draft to give you a better idea of where rookie QBs are drafted compared to where their value shows they SHOULD be drafted....I'll see what I can come up with for the sake of comparison.

[jhigginsluckow]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

Just want to be clear - I wasn't attempting to criticize the potential of this sort of system. Actually, I was trying to defend it for the most part. But there are some things that you can't use statistics for, is all I'm saying. JJ Watt, as good as he is, is not the most valuable asset in the league, which seems to be the overall feel of the chart.

I think a system like this would work much better when making draft pick trades in Madden, more so than player trades. You'd have a much larger sample size to go off of, and you're still fixing a major flaw in the game.

Out of curiosity DCEBB2001, and maybe you've answered this in a different thread, what all goes into the values you have in the OP? Age, Years of experience, positional value, contract terms/length and other things like that are all factored into a team's decision in real life when making a trade. Can your models incorporate that in some way?

[ggsimmonds]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

This doesn't account for other variables that go into trades.
Ngata was in the final year of his contract and the Ravens were unwilling to extend him. Other teams knew this so that brought his trade cost down.

That is one example but it happens frequently where a player is traded in part due to off field issues (contract, "cancer" status, disagreement with coaches, etc) that are not accounted for in either FBG or Madden.

When enough players are being traded for less than their value it brings the trade costs down for everyone.
The data is skewed.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

Here is the draft data I spoke of earlier:

I pulled in every instance where a QB was drafted since 2005. Every draft class has every prospect ranked from worst to first. Their grade value is not necessary as only the selection slot is important. I will compare where the player was actually drafted as opposed to where the player's value suggested he should have been picked.

2005:
Smith (#4) drafted #1 overall
Rodgers (#5) drafted #24 overall
Campbell (#39) drafted #25 overall
Frye (#34) drafted #67 overall
Walter (#71) drafted #69 overall
Greene (#156) drafted #85 overall
Orton (#41) drafted #106 overall
LeFors (#188) drafted #121 overall
Orlovsky (#192) drafted #145 overall
McPherson (#107) drafted #152 overall
Anderson (#212) drafted #213 overall
Kilian (#478) drafted #229 overall
Cassel (#603) drafted #230 overall
Fitzpatrick (#244) drafted #250 overall

47 places higher than average


2006:
Young (#11) drafted #3 overall
Leinart (#4) drafted #10 overall
Cutler (#5) drafted #11 overall
Clemens (#126) drafted #49 overall
Jackson (#277) drafted #64 overall
Whitehurst (#153) drafted #81 overall
Croyle (#114) drafted #85 overall
Martin (#319) drafted #148 overall
Jacobs (#204) drafted #164 overall
McNeal (#223) drafted #193 overall
Gradkowski (#177) drafted #194 overall
Shockley (#293) drafted #223 overall

57 places higher than average


2007:
Russell (#2) drafted #1 overall
Quinn (#5) drafted #22 overall
Kolb (#105) drafted #36 overall
Beck (#87) drafted #40 overall
Stanton (#63) drafted #43 overall
Edwards (#75) drafted #92 overall
Stanback (#152) drafted #103 overall
Rowe (#259) drafted #151 overall
Smith (#123) drafted #174 overall
Palmer (#215) drafted #205 overall
Thigpen (#499) drafted #217 overall

45 places higher than average


2008:
Ryan (#7) drafted #3 overall
Flacco (#39) drafted #18 overall
Brohm (#19) drafted #56 overall
Henne (#38) drafted #57 overall
O'Connell (#142) drafted #94 overall
Booty (#98) drafted #137 overall
Dixon (#173) drafted #156 overall
Johnson (#84) drafted #160 overall
Ainge (#154) drafted #162 overall
Brennan (#219) drafted #186 overall
Woodson (#73) drafted #198 overall
Flynn (#263) drafted #209 overall
Brink (#341) drafted #223 overall

-1 places higher than average


2009:
Stafford (#5) drafted #1 overall
Sanchez (#6) drafted #5 overall
Freeman (#17) drafted #17 overall
White (#62) drafted #44 overall
McGee (#96) drafted #101 overall
Bomar (#90) drafted #151 overall
Davis (#156) drafted #171 overall
Brandstater (#199) drafted #174 overall
Teel (#271) drafted #178 overall
Null (#494) drafted #196 overall
Painter (#234) drafted #201 overall

36 places higher than average


2010:
Bradford (#2) drafted #1 overall
Tebow (#36) drafted #25 overall
Clausen (#12) drafted #48 overall
McCoy (#40) drafted #85 overall
Kafka (#196) drafted #122 overall
Skelton (#129) drafted #155 overall
Crompton (#118) drafted #168 overall
Smith (#437) drafted #176 overall
LeFevour (#100) drafted #181 overall
Pike (#69) drafted #204 overall
Brown (#151) drafted #209 overall
Canfield (#321) drafted #239 overall
Robinson (#221) drafted #250 overall

-2 places higher than average


2011:
Newton (#11) drafted #1 overall
Locker (#24) drafted #8 overall
Gabbert (#9) drafted #10 overall
Ponder (#32) drafted #12 overall
Dalton (#44) drafted #35 overall
Kaepernick (#62) drafted #36 overall
Mallett (#37) drafted #74 overall
Stanzi (#100) drafted #135 overall
Yates (#201) drafted #152 overall
Enderle (#244) drafted #160 overall
Taylor (#153) drafted #180 overall
McElroy (#165) drafted #208 overall

6 places higher than average


2012:
Luck (#1) drafted #1 overall
Griffin (#2) drafted #2 overall
Tannehill (#8) drafted #8 overall
Weeden (#44) drafted #22 overall
Osweiler (#83) drafted #57 overall
Wilson (#121) drafted #75 overall
Foles (#200) drafted #88 overall
Cousins (#65) drafted #102 overall
Lindley (#129) drafted #185 overall
Coleman (#159) drafted #243 overall
Harnish (#185) drafted #253 overall

-4 places higher than average


2013:
Manuel (#40) drafted #16 overall
Smith (#21) drafted #39 overall
Glennon (#77) drafted #73 overall
Barkley (#37) drafted #98 overall
Nassib (#41) drafted #110 overall
Wilson (#72) drafted #112 overall
Jones (#111) drafted #115 overall
Sorensen (#281) drafted #221 overall
Dysert (#142) drafted #234 overall
Daniels (#818) drafted #237 overall
Renfree (#276) drafted #249 overall

37 places higher than average


2014:
Bortles (#6) drafted #3 overall
Manziel (#7) drafted #22 overall
Bridgewater (#13) drafted #32 overall
Carr (#28) drafted #36 overall
Garoppolo (#47) drafted #62 overall
Thomas (#179) drafted #120 overall
Savage (#45) drafted #135 overall
Murray (#140) drafted #163 overall
McCarron (#102) drafted #164 overall
Mettenberger (#125) drafted #178 overall
Fales (#204) drafted #183 overall
Wenning (#232) drafted #194 overall
Boyd (#298) drafted #213 overall
Gilbert (#281) drafted #214 overall

-1 places higher than average


2015:
Winston (#2) drafted #1 overall
Mariota (#3) drafted #2 overall
Grayson (#95) drafted #75 overall
Mannion (#107) drafted #89 overall
Petty (#73) drafted #103 overall
Hundley (#63) drafted #147 overall
Siemian (#458) drafted #250 overall

19 places higher than average


Total Poplulation: average QB is selected 21 places higher than he should be.

As you can see, some years have QBs selected an average of a worse slot than they are ranked, but most years show that QBs are selected higher than where there overall rank. It seems that QBs are valued higher in the draft compared to their true value.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

Just want to be clear - I wasn't attempting to criticize the potential of this sort of system. Actually, I was trying to defend it for the most part. But there are some things that you can't use statistics for, is all I'm saying. JJ Watt, as good as he is, is not the most valuable asset in the league, which seems to be the overall feel of the chart.

I think a system like this would work much better when making draft pick trades in Madden, more so than player trades. You'd have a much larger sample size to go off of, and you're still fixing a major flaw in the game.

Out of curiosity DCEBB2001, and maybe you've answered this in a different thread, what all goes into the values you have in the OP? Age, Years of experience, positional value, contract terms/length and other things like that are all factored into a team's decision in real life when making a trade. Can your models incorporate that in some way?

Correct, we can also do this for pick-to-pick trades as well. That would require another analysis. I wanted to demonstrate the more nebulous player-for-pick trades, however, in this examination.

The values are based solely on the scouts grades for each player at the time they are traded. I have historical scouting grades going back to 1996. I can basically look up the grade of the player to the day they are traded and compare their grade to the points they are traded for. This model does not incorporate any of that other stuff, just the value of the player vs. the value of the picks as explained in the original post.

[DCEBB2001]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

This doesn't account for other variables that go into trades.
Ngata was in the final year of his contract and the Ravens were unwilling to extend him. Other teams knew this so that brought his trade cost down.

That is one example but it happens frequently where a player is traded in part due to off field issues (contract, "cancer" status, disagreement with coaches, etc) that are not accounted for in either FBG or Madden.

When enough players are being traded for less than their value it brings the trade costs down for everyone.
The data is skewed.

The data is not skewed. It just solely incorporates graded player value vs. draft pick value. Nothing more, nothing less. I explained that in the original post, and want to reiterate that any absence of criteria are simply contributing to the "limitations" of the analysis.

I also want to note that FBG Ratings has absolutely nothing to do with this analysis so saying that other factors are " not accounted for in either FBG or Madden" is not a correct statement. This model is not for FBG, or derived from FBG, in any way. FBG is a system for rating Madden players. This analysis is completely separate from anything on the FBG site. Rather, it is presenting a discourse to discuss one way (of many, I am sure) whereas Madden can better model picks-for-players trades in their game.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: A Realistic Model for Draft Pick Value in Madden

The data is not skewed. It just solely incorporates graded player value vs. draft pick value. Nothing more, nothing less. I explained that in the original post, and want to reiterate that any absence of criteria are simply contributing to the "limitations" of the analysis.

I also want to note that FBG Ratings has absolutely nothing to do with this analysis so saying that other factors are " not accounted for in either FBG or Madden" is not a correct statement. This model is not for FBG, or derived from FBG, in any way. FBG is a system for rating Madden players. This analysis is completely separate from anything on the FBG site. Rather, it is presenting a discourse to discuss one way (of many, I am sure) whereas Madden can better model picks-for-players trades in their game.

Your analysis has omitted variable bias. There is no way around it. You are attempting to assign trade values while ignoring a variable that undoubtedly influences trade value. If I'm am being blunt, the analysis is useless.

My bad on the FBG remark, I used that as a shorthand in referencing the scouting data you used.