View Single Post
Old 03-14-2016, 07:21 AM   #112
JTommy67
Pro
 
OVR: 0
Join Date: Jul 2012
Re: MLB The Show 16 Player Ratings - Top Players at Each Position

With respect to defensive ratings, a couple of things to note:

When I was attempting to discover what statistics might be used by devs to calculate ratings, I was more-less able to figure out what they were using for most hitting and pitching ratings. I compared three-year averages in all kinds of statistics to default ratings and ran correlation coefficients in excel. When I found what I thought they might be using, the R-values were typically around .90 to .95 and even as high as .98 when looking at players who had three full years worth of statistics.

However, when it came to defensive ratings I was completely stumped. The highest R-value I could generate for any rating at any position was about .65, which was lower than the lowest R-value I got for any of the other ratings - and I looked at everything I could possibly think of, including zone ratings and all kinds of advanced statistics found on baseball-reference and in virtually every combination. As a result, I know no more about defensive ratings than I did before I started.

I have no idea what they're doing to get those ratings. However, I would suggest there might be a fair degree of subjectivity. With respect to Posey and Perez, they both have had the same blocking rating for the last three years. Perez has been at 70 for four straight years now. You often find this - there are a lot of players that have the same rating from year to year for some or all of the defensive statistics. It would seem they gauge ability early in a person's career and then make adjustments here and there, usually for players who are getting on in age.

How they are initially rating players defensive abilities, however, I don't know. But with respect to defensive ratings in the game, I think there is room for some dispute. I've run across a number of ratings over the past few years that completely stumped me. In short, it would seem they have accepted the common criticism which is so often leveled at defensive statistics - they just aren't a good reflection of a player's effectiveness in the field. Not saying I agree, but looking at ratings and comparing to defensive statistics would seem to indicate that the devs are looking at it that way.

Last edited by JTommy67; 03-14-2016 at 07:23 AM.
JTommy67 is offline  
Reply With Quote