Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

[srdclark]

Already! I know I've been looking at my weekly investments a bit too late in the week, and I wanted to throw one up that was more analysis than "feels right."

Of course it's going to be a Blue Jay, because I am a fanboy and also because they don't always get as much attention.

Michael Saunders is the Jays' everyday LF. He bats left but rakes against lefties. He has 6 HR vs lefties and only 5 vs righties in 2.5 times as many AB.

Con vsR: 69; vsL 61. He's hitting .298 vsR and .313 vsL.
Pwr vsR: 60; vsL 49. He's slugging .504 vsR and .688 vsL.

I'm going to assume his Con and Pwr vsR are fairly accurate as baselines, though both Con numbers seem a touch low based on some quick comps. Con vsL should come up to 70, Pwr vsL should come up to... 63? 65? Based on stat weightings on Reddit, that would be worth about 3 OVR (1 from the contact boost, 2 from power) bringing him to 80 OVR.

I've clearly made a couple of assumptions here (that I'm happy to be challenged on) but I'm trying to be analytical in my approach. 80 OVR sounds about right for an everyday player hitting .302 with 11 HR to me.

[fender227]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

Both Bogaerts and Ortiz could be in line for upgrades to diamond.

[Gambit1193]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

Both Bogaerts and Ortiz could be in line for upgrades to diamond.

Idk what could make Bogaerts a diamond. His Con v L is 99 and vs R its 91. Would making Con v R 99 bring him up to diamond? Don't think he's gonna get any power upgrades.

[c4confused]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

C.C. Sabathia has to be a candidate for an upgrade. He is 4-4 with a 2.28 ERA through 10 starts so he should be going silver soon. More specifically, over his last 7 starts, he's given up a total of 6 runs.

Carlos Beltran has been on absolute fire batting .310 with 9 HRs over the last month (.375 with 3 HRs over the last 7 days). He's definitely playing better than his 78 rating.

Paulo Orlando from the Royals could go for a ratings bump. He's been batting .341 over his last 30 days. He's playing at a higher level than his 68 rating would suggest.

Other players include Logan Morrison, Wilson Ramos, Jose Ramirez.

[Mercury112491]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

Robinson. Cano. God damnit!


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[Beatles]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

Robinson. Cano. God damnit!


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I bought him for 17500 stubs Thursday night and his value has plummeted. I sure hope he goes Diamond.

[c4confused]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

Robinson. Cano. God damnit!


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The problem with Cano possibly going diamond is that SCEA would have to either increase his fielding to what it was before they dropped it or raise his contact/power vs lefties which he isn't hitting well enough to justify doing so (.227 with 4 HRs). It wouldn't surprise me to see him go diamond, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he stays at a high gold for the time being.

[Gambit1193]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

The problem with Cano possibly going diamond is that SCEA would have to either increase his fielding to what it was before they dropped it or raise his contact/power vs lefties which he isn't hitting well enough to justify doing so (.227 with 4 HRs). It wouldn't surprise me to see him go diamond, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he stays at a high gold for the time being.

He's top 5 in baseball in HRs, #3 in the AL, top 5 in RBIs, top 5 in runs, surely his power could be upgraded to make him gold.

[srdclark]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

He's top 5 in baseball in HRs, #3 in the AL, top 5 in RBIs, top 5 in runs, surely his power could be upgraded to make him gold.

It would be tough to get him to diamond through Pwr vsR alone. He's an 81, and I don't think bumping him to 99 would be enough to get him 2 points OVR (plus, his stats don't warrant it). You'd likely need to boost his Con vsR and Pwr vsR both to 99 to do it, and that definitely isn't realistic.

I'd argue that his Con vsL deserves a downgrade. If you look at my Michael Saunders example, Saunders is currently nearly identical to Cano in Con vsL (61 vs 66 for Cano) despite hitting nearly 100 points higher versus lefties IRL (.313 vs .227). Saunders also has a much lower Pwr vsL than Cano (46 vs 56) despite having more HR IRL (6 vs 4) and nearly 300 points better (!) SLG vs lefties (.688 vs .392).

I'd love to see Cano go diamond, but I think it's more likely his numbers vs lefties will be dropped, making it harder to boost him to diamond levels.

[ALLMAN93]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

It would be tough to get him to diamond through Pwr vsR alone. He's an 81, and I don't think bumping him to 99 would be enough to get him 2 points OVR (plus, his stats don't warrant it). You'd likely need to boost his Con vsR and Pwr vsR both to 99 to do it, and that definitely isn't realistic.

I'd argue that his Con vsL deserves a downgrade. If you look at my Michael Saunders example, Saunders is currently nearly identical to Cano in Con vsL (61 vs 66 for Cano) despite hitting nearly 100 points higher versus lefties IRL (.313 vs .227). Saunders also has a much lower Pwr vsL than Cano (46 vs 56) despite having more HR IRL (6 vs 4) and nearly 300 points better (!) SLG vs lefties (.688 vs .392).

I'd love to see Cano go diamond, but I think it's more likely his numbers vs lefties will be dropped, making it harder to boost him to diamond levels.

He would already be a diamond if it weren't for his defensive downgrade. If they give him those defensive stats back, he'll easily be a diamond.

[c4confused]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

He's top 5 in baseball in HRs, #3 in the AL, top 5 in RBIs, top 5 in runs, surely his power could be upgraded to make him gold.

He deserves to be a diamond. That much I think we can all agree on. I was just saying that unless they changed his fielding back to what it was plus increase some of his Con/Pow vs R, I doubt he'll get there.

[srdclark]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

He would already be a diamond if it weren't for his defensive downgrade. If they give him those defensive stats back, he'll easily be a diamond.

I haven't watched a Mariners game yet this year, so I can only assume that the drop to his defensive ratings was warranted. Can you (or anybody) let me know whether this is the case?

My point, in response to a request to boost his Pwr vsR rating to make him diamond, was that it wasn't mathematically possible to make him a diamond with that one stat, and that there was no realistic offensive stat boost that would do the job, while an offensive stat reduction was likely in order based on his performance vs lefties. Maybe the defensive change should be reverted, but the stats just don't seem to support the jump to diamond.

[Mercury112491]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

I haven't watched him much either but he was always around the caliber of a gold glove second basemen. Has he regressed?


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[mikeq672]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

I haven't watched him much either but he was always around the caliber of a gold glove second basemen. Has he regressed?


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Gold Gloves are a popularity contest, not so much the last few years but they still arent great. Hes pretty much average defensively at this point.

Theres also 3 second baseman putting up similar or better seasons than he has that are gold, Murphy, Zobrist or Kinsler. Cano going diamond isnt as pressing as people make it out to be.

[BlessingSpore72]

Re: Ratings Boost Predictions (6/17/16)

Gold Gloves are a popularity contest, not so much the last few years but they still arent great. Hes pretty much average defensively at this point.

Theres also 3 second baseman putting up similar or better seasons than he has that are gold, Murphy, Zobrist or Kinsler. Cano going diamond isnt as pressing as people make it out to be.

Like the saying goes, "He doesn't hit enough to win a gold glove". It is the same thing in the NBA. Kobe was making All NBA first team defence years after he ever should have