[Trackball]

Quote: Originally Posted by JazzCeltics

What about Kwame Brown? What about Robert Swift? What about Johnathan Bender? What about Darius Miles? What about Desagana Diop? What about Eddy Curry? (I know he was good for a few years, but once he got to the Knicks he wasn't too good) What about Martell Webster? I know that many high school players like the ones you mentioned, Dwight Howard, Bynum, Jermaine O'Neal, and more, but there are many busts as well out of high school, so that argument can't be made for Thon Maker.

Hindsight bias.

After Garnett and Kobe came right out of high school and started kicking butt almost immediately (especially the former), a lot of players came out in the next 5-7 years. Who knew so many would start sucking?

Take this Bill Simmons column from right after the 2002 NBA Draft, regarding the top two picks:

Quote:

Years from now, we will remember "Yao Ming over Jay Williams" the same way we remember "Bowie over Jordan," "Traylor for Nowitzki," "Carroll for McHale and Parish," "Aguirre over Thomas" and every other great draft day blunder in NBA history. I'm not just predicting it, I'm guaranteeing it.

Six months later, to the day, he wrote a follow-up. To his credit, he admits fault, which is more than I can say for some sportswriters.

Quote:

I'm an idiot. Forget about Yao's emergence as the most polished rookie big man since Brad Daugherty, or that he offers the first worthy challenge to Shaq since Hakeem was still The Dream. If you're a basketball fan, you love Yao Ming. He's a godsend, the best Chinese import since General Tso. And I thought he'd stink. I may as well have predicted that Vin Baker would be the missing piece of the puzzle in Boston or the Blazers would be a team you could be proud to bring home to Mom.

Who knew Jay Williams would decide to be an idiot with his motorcycle?
...And yes, I know what you're thinking: Who knew Yao Ming's feet would betray him?
Not that it matters--Yao's in the Hall of Fame. Jay's not.