Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

[numberFour4ever]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Go back to school, ggsimmonds.

Brett Favre 2nd year as starter, 1993 - 3300 yards, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rate
Brett Favre 3rd year as starter, 1994 - 3800 yards, 33 td, 13 int, 90.7 rate
(Favre was the 1994 NFL MVP)

Drew Brees 2nd year as starter, 2003 - 2100 yards, 11 td, 15 int, 67.5 rate
Drew Brees 3rd year as starter, 2004 - 3100 yards, 27 td, 7 int 104.8 rate
(Brees was injured in 2003)


Peyton Manning, 2000.. not a huge jump but he did lead League in passing yards and touchdowns for the first time.

Phillip Rivers 2nd year as starter, 2007 - 3150 yards, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rate
Phillip Rivers 3rd year as starter, 2008 - 4000 yards, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rate
(Rivers lead the NFL in tds and rating in 2008)

2001 NFL Champs - Patriots.. their starter.... 3rd year QB Tom Brady
2007 NFL Champs - Giants.. their starter.. 3rd year QB Eli Manning

... you were right on Cunningham. His MVP-caliber season was 1990, which was his 4th year. My bad there.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Go back to school, ggsimmonds.

Brett Favre 2nd year as starter, 1993 - 3300 yards, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rate
Brett Favre 3rd year as starter, 1994 - 3800 yards, 33 td, 13 int, 90.7 rate
(Favre was the 1994 NFL MVP)

Drew Brees 2nd year as starter, 2003 - 2100 yards, 11 td, 15 int, 67.5 rate
Drew Brees 3rd year as starter, 2004 - 3100 yards, 27 td, 7 int 104.8 rate
(Brees was injured in 2003)


Peyton Manning, 2000.. not a huge jump but he did lead League in passing yards and touchdowns for the first time.

Phillip Rivers 2nd year as starter, 2007 - 3150 yards, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rate
Phillip Rivers 3rd year as starter, 2008 - 4000 yards, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rate
(Rivers lead the NFL in tds and rating in 2008)

2001 NFL Champs - Patriots.. their starter.... 3rd year QB Tom Brady
2007 NFL Champs - Giants.. their starter.. 3rd year QB Eli Manning

... you were right on Cunningham. His MVP-caliber season was 1990, which was his 4th year. My bad there.

There was a clarification error. The post before yours said 3rd year, not 3rd year starting. Just pointing that out. Eli started for the Giants in 2004, unless you are only counting full starting seasons. You should clarify the conditions you are presenting your stats to before presenting them.

[numberFour4ever]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

There was a clarification error. The post before yours said 3rd year, not 3rd year starting. Just pointing that out. Eli started for the Giants in 2004, unless you are only counting full starting seasons. You should clarify the conditions you are presenting your stats to before presenting them.

He bolded exactly what I was stating earlier.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

He bolded exactly what I was stating earlier.

If you are going by that then, Eli won his superbowl in his fourth year (both in the league and starting). Brady won a SB in his second, fourth and fifth.

EDIT: I am not for you or against you in this. I am just trying to find out the conditions you are setting to meet your argument. You could put Rodgers on your list. He won a SB his third year starting.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Go back to school, ggsimmonds.

Brett Favre 2nd year as starter, 1993 - 3300 yards, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rate
Brett Favre 3rd year as starter, 1994 - 3800 yards, 33 td, 13 int, 90.7 rate
(Favre was the 1994 NFL MVP)

Drew Brees 2nd year as starter, 2003 - 2100 yards, 11 td, 15 int, 67.5 rate
Drew Brees 3rd year as starter, 2004 - 3100 yards, 27 td, 7 int 104.8 rate
(Brees was injured in 2003)


Peyton Manning, 2000.. not a huge jump but he did lead League in passing yards and touchdowns for the first time.

Phillip Rivers 2nd year as starter, 2007 - 3150 yards, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rate
Phillip Rivers 3rd year as starter, 2008 - 4000 yards, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rate
(Rivers lead the NFL in tds and rating in 2008)

2001 NFL Champs - Patriots.. their starter.... 3rd year QB Tom Brady
2007 NFL Champs - Giants.. their starter.. 3rd year QB Eli Manning

... you were right on Cunningham. His MVP-caliber season was 1990, which was his 4th year. My bad there.

Favre won his MVP in 1995 when he led the league in yards and TDs.

Check Brees' 4th year as a starter. He was right back to throwing 15 interceptions.

I took your advice and just got back from school. My teacher told me you should not show stats only when it supports your argument. So I'll post Peyton's stats for you.
1998: 3739 yards, 26 TD 28 int
1999: 4135 yards, 26 TD, 15 int
2000: 4413 yards 33 TD, 15 int
2001: 4131 yards 26 TD, 23 int

I don't see how anyone could look at that and say yeah, he made a jump in his 3rd year.

For Phillip Rivers, his first year was not bad. He threw for 3388 yards with 22 TD and 9 interceptions for a QB rating of 92.5. But in that year Tomlinson ran for 1800 yards. In 2008 Tomlinson ran for 1100 yards. Maybe that is where the yards went?

2001 SB champs Qb was second year but first year starter Tom Brady.

It was Eli's 3rd full season when they won the SB, but he started 7 games his rookie year.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

1998: 3739 yards, 26 TD 28 int
1999: 4135 yards, 26 TD, 15 int
2000: 4413 yards 33 TD, 15 int

I don't see how anyone could look at that and say yeah, he made a jump in his 3rd year.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but aren't his 3rd year basic numbers the very definition of making a jump?

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Seems like pretty normal progression. He had a yards boost but not much bigger than the one from year 1 to 2, more touchdowns obviously. Depends on what you mean by jump probably. He got better, but significantly so? Or more than you'd expect given progression from year 1 to 2? Probably not. Then he was back to Year 2 level afterwards which would imply he didn't make any jump, he just had some things go his way that hadn't in other years.

[numberFour4ever]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

I gave the reason I believed in Bortles, and gave examples as to why.

If believing 3rd year QBs make a jump means I believe in Bigfoot, or the Loch Ness Monster, so be it. Plenty of people involved in the business believe it.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but aren't his 3rd year basic numbers the very definition of making a jump?

I don't think so. His 3rd year was the best year out of years 2,3,and 4 but I would not categorize it as any kind of jump.
I would define jump as elevating your level of play from one tier to the next, not a slight improvement in production. If Joe Flacco has a career year where he finally throws for over 4000 yards is that a jump? No, its just a career year. Now if he throws for 5000 yards and continues at a level close to that than it is a jump.

On the issue of 3rd year jumps in general, consider the following.

We should all agree that no rookie QB has been considered elite. Put it differently, we can't gauge progression from their last year into college to their first pro year.

I'd also wager that the vast majority of players meet their potential by their 6th season. At that point we pretty much know the quality of a player.

So that leaves years 2, 3, 4, and 5 as the progression years.

Assuming that there is no special year or pattern, we could assume that a QB would reach "elite" level 25% of the time in year 3 (and the same or close to it every year).

For there to be a special year 3 jump what percentage would it need to be? Forty percent of elite QBs reached that status in year 3? Fifty percent?

Or are there no jumps but instead a gradual linear progression peaking at the age of 28 or so?

I'm a data guy and the data does not support the year 3 jump.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

If Joe Flacco has a career year where he finally throws for over 4000 yards is that a jump? No, its just a career year. Now if he throws for 5000 yards and continues at a level close to that than it is a jump.

Depends on if we're looking at anything else other than just the basic numbers of Yds/TDs/INTs.

Going by your definition, I'm guessing you didn't think Rodgers made the jump from his 1st year of starting to his 2nd year.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Depends on if we're looking at anything else other than just the basic numbers of Yds/TDs/INTs.

Going by your definition, I'm guessing you didn't think Rodgers made the jump from his 1st year of starting to his 2nd year.

Correct. Rodgers came out at a high level in his first year as a starter. The only reason someone would not categorize that as elite is because we (rightly so) need to see consistency.

Here is a jump -- check Big Ben from 2008 to 2009.

2008 16 gp 3301 yards 17 TD 15 int 80.1 rating
2009 15 gp 4328 yards 26 TD 12 int 100.5 rating

Then look at his numbers after 2009. 2009 was a turning point.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Yeah, this is one of those cases where it takes more than just looking at YDS/TDs/INTs and determining if they made a "jump" or what type of "jump" they made.

[bkrich83]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

I gave the reason I believed in Bortles, and gave examples as to why.

If believing 3rd year QBs make a jump means I believe in Bigfoot, or the Loch Ness Monster, so be it. Plenty of people involved in the business believe it.

Year 3 is when most people believe the big jump is made. You are not wrong.

[ggsimmonds]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Year 3 is when most people believe the big jump is made. You are not wrong.

It is not my intention to dive back in this argument, but he said it was historically the year QBs made the jump.
I won't dispute the perception of the 3rd year jump, but I will dispute the validity of it.
I don't think the data backs up the perception.

[Hooe]

Re: Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

Blake Bortles recently set a dubious record: most touchdown passes thrown in the second half by a quarterback whose team is losing by more than 8 points.

The guys he overtook? Tom Brady and Johnny Unitas.

In any other context, I'd say overtaking two certifiable legends is a good thing. In this context, however, I think it's a very strong indictment that Bortles is not a quality quarterback. His teams are frequently behind by large margins, and say what you want about the defense but he's at least partly responsible for his teams falling behind by big margins at all.

As it pertains to his development - I don't have a strong opinion on that argument, but I think it's clear Bortles is not as good as some people, particularly those heavily influenced by fantasy football, want him to be right now.