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Originally Posted by Old Man Nathy |
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I've played out so many drafts using my tool now that I'm starting to get a nose for who to take and what their likely OVR is beyond what the TVR will show  .
My advice would be to take the CB at #2 if he's available. A 95+ TVR on a non-QB is pretty rare. He'll be an absolute stud. I reckon he could be an 80/81 OVR, likely with SS development too (unless there's any concerning draft stories). You'll have a shutdown corner for the next decade with him, IMO. Please don't lynch me if he turns out to be a bust though!
At #4, the QB might drop to you, but he looks like a 78ish QB rather than a top drawer guy. The true blue chip QBs (the 83s and 84s you see guys getting) usually have a TVR around 96-99, though this guy's 21 which means he'll have plenty of time to grow into a franchise-caliber guy. The OLB and DT look like good players too though (I'd predict 79 and 78 OVR respectively), so you can't really go wrong. Don't discount the DE either if he's a scheme fit. One thing to note though is the QB will be getting a boost because of his young age, so take that into consideration - his OVR might end up being lower than the OLB, DE and DT (though ultimately he'll end up better as he has more prime development years ahead of him).
Definitely wouldn't reach for the WR though as you can pick up good Wideouts later in the draft normally, and they're usually all much of a muchness in terms of OVR, very, very rarely above 78. Also wouldn't reach for the other CB at #4.
The 2nd QB could be a good bet if you miss out at #4. You could trade down, but probably only to about pick #20-25 in the first round and still get him. I reckon he'd be about a 76/77.
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Wow, I really appreciate the feedback man! That's fantastic stuff. I'm really hopeful I can get Hodges and Cushing, but you might be right that the difference between Cushing and Newell is negligible if not.
Let's say I take Cushing at #2 and Hodges isn't there at #4. Is there a reason you wouldn't reach for the other CB at 4? He seems like a stud with amazing physical tools, and at 22-years old I should be able to improve his coverage, no?