If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

[dsk1317]

The Packers 2-4-5, 3 safety personnel package.

In week 5, the Packers held the Giants to under 50 yards rushing, and they never had fewer than 5 defensive backs on the field. That's right, the packers never had their 34 personnel on the field, regardless of the Giants offensive personnel. Think about that, let it sink in.


Recreated the same look, by spreading my linebackers, shifting my D-line to the left, and walking my strong safety down into the box.

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/10/10/13225534/packers-snap-counts-week-5-nickel-dime-no-34-defense-eddie-lacy-james-starks

The Packers shutdown the Falcons dangerous running attack, and here are the stats to prove it.

The following article reveals something worth noting. This is nothing new, and in fact, it was the base defense of the 96 Packers.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...efensive-trend

The Lions remained in their big nickel package, even against heavy personnel.
Please, just read the articles, because the game is changing.

Miles Killebrew, the Lions rookie hybrid safety.

http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2016/11/22/13712808/three-safety-packages-detroit-lions-defensive-formations-jaguars

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[LBzrule]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Could this be because of the offensive formation and personnel set though and the fact that the Giants do not have a good rushing attack? GB didn't try that against Dallas for instance. I don't think this is an either or thing. The biggest issue with Madden is that this can and does work against every team and I don't think it should.

[dsk1317]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

They shut down the Falcons OZ scheme, and they did it with their nickel package.

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[LBzrule]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

They shut down the Falcons OZ scheme, and they did it with their nickel package.

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again, not denying that. The issue is there's a reason they did not run this against everyone. In madden you can run it against everyone with the same results. That's a problem.

[Madden08PCgmr]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Problem #1;

You are discussing the Packers defense.

They have no defense.. So this is all hypothetical.


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[dsk1317]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Problem #1;

You are discussing the Packers defense.

They have no defense.. So this is all hypothetical.


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Problem number one, I'm presenting hard data, so it's not hypothetical.

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[Senor Tortilla]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Problem number one, I'm presenting hard data, so it's not hypothetical.

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You are presenting hard data, but one game is hardly sufficient evidence. The NFL season is 16 games long for a reason. Also, you have to look at the circumstances that this event occurred under. The Giants finished 29th in rushing last season. They had no balance, making staying in a nickel/dime defense much more viable.

This is not to say that a base-nickel defense is impossible, only that the data sample provided is too small to conclude that it can be relied upon on a week-to-week basis.

[dsk1317]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

You are presenting hard data, but one game is hardly sufficient evidence. The NFL season is 16 games long for a reason. Also, you have to look at the circumstances that this event occurred under. The Giants finished 29th in rushing last season. They had no balance, making staying in a nickel/dime defense much more viable.

This is not to say that a base-nickel defense is impossible, only that the data sample provided is too small to conclude that it can be relied upon on a week-to-week basis.

So far, I've presented two games, and I'm currently working on compiling more data. If you read the last article I posted, you'll see the Packers are far from the only team to use this scheme. Coaches do not care about being "sim," their only concern is getting their best eleven players on the field -- even if it's by unconventional means -- and doesn't fit into someones preconceived notion of "sim."

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[Hooe]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Something that Madden is going to have to do going forward with more and more teams basing out of nickel sets is giving the nickel back have more responsibility against the run. In many of the nickel defensive run fits in-game, the nickel back doesn't have an assignment, so you have fewer defenders playing against the run in the nickel, which makes your run defense immediately weaker even if you have Ronnie Lott as your nickel back for whatever reason.

While I can respect this from a gameplay balance standpoint - pulling linebackers off the field should make my run defense weaker, and it very much does - it's not really representative of the way the NFL is trending. If I recall correctly, PFF tracked that defenses deployed nickel personnel on something like 55% of all defensive snaps in 2016. It's not just the Packers basing out of nickel, it's nearly the entire league, and NFL defenses are managing to not get shredded by the run each week despite this dramatic shift in defensive philosophy.

EDIT: the number for snaps in nickel percentage was actually 63%, and that was from 2015, and that number has gone up every season since 2008.

[seanhazz1]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Your 55% number is a bit out of context. Usually 50% of the league is playing from behind late each week, so they are passing(more plays), and teams not named Atlanta, run when ahead to chew clock, later in games(less plays), so normally they are not passing when ahead late, giving you a semi-constant 5%+ increase above average. The REAL counter to THAT constant nickel formation use, is a heavy or 2TE set(will need a 2nd TE like the Pays use) . You won't line up nickel against AP.! Most TEs tend to push around most DBs. "Brady" up, make proper reads at the line and Take your 3-4 yards rinse and repeat til they change up. As mentioned above, it can be effective and frustrating but won't hold up under the constant barrage of grinding (3-5 yes) the all game, add in a strategic no huddle and audible on occasion and soon the whole D will be red, with lowly backups getting burned.


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[LBzrule]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

So far, I've presented two games, and I'm currently working on compiling more data. If you read the last article I posted, you'll see the Packers are far from the only team to use this scheme. Coaches do not care about being "sim," their only concern is getting their best eleven players on the field -- even if it's by unconventional means -- and doesn't fit into someones preconceived notion of "sim."

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To me the argument goes both ways. Sure several teams stay in Nickel a great deal and that goes up every season as offenses go to more spread looks. But I think the data that needs to be looked at especially relative to Madden is to look at the success of Nickel vs the Run from 12, 21, 22 personnel on a snap by snap basis. Madden success rate vs the run from those personnel sets is high.

[dsk1317]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

I know it's used heavily against 21 and 12 personnel, especially 12, but I still need to find info about 22, 13, and 23 personnel. For the record, I can see both sides of it, too.

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[dsk1317]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

To me the argument goes both ways. Sure several teams stay in Nickel a great deal and that goes up every season as offenses go to more spread looks. But I think the data that needs to be looked at especially relative to Madden is to look at the success of Nickel vs the Run from 12, 21, 22 personnel on a snap by snap basis. Madden success rate vs the run from those personnel sets is high.

I know it's used heavily against 21 and 12 personnel, especially 12, but I still need to find info about 22, 13, and 23 personnel. For the record, I can see both sides of it, too.

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[dsk1317]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Something that Madden is going to have to do going forward with more and more teams basing out of nickel sets is giving the nickel back have more responsibility against the run. In many of the nickel defensive run fits in-game, the nickel back doesn't have an assignment, so you have fewer defenders playing against the run in the nickel, which makes your run defense immediately weaker even if you have Ronnie Lott as your nickel back for whatever reason.

While I can respect this from a gameplay balance standpoint - pulling linebackers off the field should make my run defense weaker, and it very much does - it's not really representative of the way the NFL is trending. If I recall correctly, PFF tracked that defenses deployed nickel personnel on something like 55% of all defensive snaps in 2016. It's not just the Packers basing out of nickel, it's nearly the entire league, and NFL defenses are managing to not get shredded by the run each week despite this dramatic shift in defensive philosophy.

EDIT: the number for snaps in nickel percentage was actually 63%, and that was from 2015, and that number has gone up every season since 2008.

Thanks for the added info!

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[Hooe]

Re: If You Have A Rigid Idea of Sim Style Play, Read This.

Your 55% number is a bit out of context.

You're right, that number is out of context. Let me add context.

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https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

In 2016:

- All 32 teams deployed 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) as their most frequently-used personnel grouping on plays where the offense held the lead (or the score was tied). The most extreme example of this philosophy are the New York Giants, who used 11 personnel on 91% of snaps in this scenario.

- 25 of 32 NFL teams deployed 11 personnel at least 50% of the time on plays where they held the lead or tie.

- 21 of 32 NFL teams deployed 11 personnel most frequently when holding the lead or tie and the distance to the first down marker was 5 yards or less (regardless of down).

- 25 of 32 NFL teams deployed 11 personnel most frequently on 1st down while holding a lead or tie.

- 26 of 32 NFL teams deployed 11 personnel most frequently on 1st and 10 plays outside the red zone while holding a lead or tie.

- 30 of 32 NFL teams deployed 11 personnel most frequently on 3rd or 4th down with 3 yards or less to go while holding a lead or tie.

- 16 of 32 NFL teams deployed 11 personnel most frequently in 4th quarter or overtime while holding a lead of at least 9 points. Both the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots are among these 16 teams.

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tl;dr - 11 personnel is the new "pro set".