I'd argue the mainstream cultural appeal of Madden has always been the competitive experience, be it couch multiplayer or later online multiplayer. #MaddenSeason, etc. Sure there are plenty of franchise guys or "sim" guys, but the competitive appeal is why Madden has been one of the most popular online console games since online play on consoles was introduced in 2002, and why Ultimate Team has been so wildly successful since it was introduced in 2009. People enjoy competition, and sports games like Madden are by their very nature competitive.
That's not to say Madden doesn't have to adapt their game to be a wildly successful E-Sports game (as opposed to a niche e-sports game, which it already is and has been for at least a decade); they do, you are correct on that point. The game doesn't offer enough user agency on the field, the game's skill floor is too high, and the game's skill ceiling is too low. That's why we've seeing an increase in not only the number of meaningful and masterable user gameplay mechanics over the past two years - be it the new tackle controls, the new running controls, the new catching controls, and this year apparently new passing controls - but also the breadth and depth of teaching tools in the game - Skills Trainer, on-field visual aids and move prompts, automatic RB controls and one-button modes on lower difficulties, etc. etc.
You are also correct that the game has to walk the line between user mechanical mastery and player ratings affecting results, lest all the money people spend on new Ultimate Team cards be for naught. The fact that Madden is an NFL game absolutely matters and EA can't lose sight of that. This is an achievable goal, however, and it's something Madden has been balancing since its inception.
Regardless, I think that expanding the game's competitive appeal, lowering its skill floor, and increasing its skill ceiling will increase its appeal as a video game, regardless of its genre or licensing. Good games with good marketing will find an audience, great games with great marketing will find a bigger one. Madden is probably comfortably in the "good game" group right now, relative to everything else on the market. Making a mechanically better video game will increase the size of the core audience beyond whatever it is today. It literally and figuratively moves the goal posts.
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