I agree that nothing should be guaranteed. Which is why green releases being automatic makes should never happen.
Even if he releases the ball early, timing should not be a critical factor on a open layup like that, it's still James Harden afterall. Timing should not be such a critical factor that it should make or break a layup like this with James Harden. That type of logic is similar to what people use when saying they should make all their shots if they time it right(Not saying you think that).
IMO it should be more about quality of shots/layups than timing.
As far as the Lebron thing, Lebron is running under harden as he goes for a layup, Lebron is not in good position and should had virtually no affect on that layup, regardless of badges. Badges shouldn't overwrite bad position. Or from a developer standpoint, Lebrons defensive badges should not activate from that position.