LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

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  • LOBBS
    Rookie
    • Nov 2018
    • 35

    #1

    LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

    Some of you may be familiar with my methodology behind this system that I outlined many moons ago in the M08 Roster section of the Football Idiots forum. I won't rehash too much of that here. Madden 19 inspired me to finally finish it though and push out a first release.



    It's based on the Super Bowl week EA roster.

    Long and short of my system is to adjust players to more closely match their combine/pro day stats. I built a massive database of player results from those drills and developed formulas that are pretty close to what EA uses as a base. From their 40 times with 10 and 20 yard splits, 3-cone and shuttle, vertical and broad jump I could predict their EA rating within a point or so. The problems with EA's rosters occur at the extremes of the rosters. There are countless mid to low round draft picks, undrafted free agents, etc. where it is obvious that EA just attempted to get a name into the game but didn't pay any mind to the real athlete's benchmarks. Or times where they purposely crippled a player's physical ratings to force them to slot in properly on a depth chart. This is fine and all for Play Now and Online matches but those mid to low players matter in franchise play. My method fixes them so that they have a reasonable opportunity to be productive players on a roster or possibly develop into starters. On the other end of the spectrum are the stars and superstars that EA over boosted their physical ratings to drive their OVRs and desired improvements relative to the pack up rather than skill ratings. Admittedly, EA has added many more skill ratings over the years and has improved a bit on those but they'd already set the baseline for an elite player's physical ratings prior to doing so and chose not to revisit them when they added the additional skills. My system also adjusts for that and moves players back closer to their combine/pro day numbers. The "points lost" when downrating physical traits were moved to the appropriate existing and newly added skills ratings.

    The other big thing is strength ratings. It annoyed me it M08 and still does to this day. Lineman with strengths in the upper 70s/lower 80s, RBs as strong as lineman, weak TEs, etc. are all gone. I built a new method based on height, weight, BMI (are they built like a brick ****house or long and lean?) and athleticism (based on combine/pro day data). I get way more in depth of my reasoning in the M08 roster thread though I've tweaked a few things since then.

    For those that want to dig into the math I've posted my spreadsheet below.



    The bulk of the player's OVRs don't change much but a point or two in this roster compared to the EA roster it's built from. Some of the players that EA just threw together do jump several points up or down on their OVR. I've blended my data to varying proportions with the original EA ratings to simulate how a player looks in pads versus in shorts at their combine/pro day. But in the end, my goal was to fairly rate every player across the board by tying their physical traits back to the most consistently gathered and widely accepted set of data.
    Last edited by LOBBS; 03-29-2019, 04:12 PM.
  • LOBBS
    Rookie
    • Nov 2018
    • 35

    #2
    Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

    I should also note that it follows the trait adjustments to work with Sabo's Revival Mod as outlined in the OP of his thread.

    I will also be releasing a spreadsheet to tweak EA generated draft classes to follow the same methodology in the very near future.

    Comment

    • ForUntoOblivionSoar∞
      MVP
      • Dec 2009
      • 4682

      #3
      Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

      This is pretty cool, but I do have one line questioning: regarding explosion off the line by outside pss rushers, how much in the game does beetical and broad jump affect that (because in real life it is a bug indicator) and do you emcorporate combine jump results in the rating that affects first step for edge rushers? (Which Inassume in the game is acceleration)


      If not, for future reference you may want to examine the correlation between elite edge rushers with a great first step and their vertical. I was quite surprised at first when I noticed this, but in hindsight it makes sense: your vertical is about explosive power, and so is the first step off the edge.





      Anyway, great work. I am definitely looking forward to this.
      Originally posted by Therebelyell626
      I am going to create a team called "the happy town fundament rapscallions" and hurt your already diminishing image
      https://forums.operationsports.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2049813056

      Last edited by your mom; 06-06-2006 at 6:06 PM.

      Comment

      • LOBBS
        Rookie
        • Nov 2018
        • 35

        #4
        Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

        Originally posted by ForUntoOblivionSoar∞
        This is pretty cool, but I do have one line questioning: regarding explosion off the line by outside pss rushers, how much in the game does beetical and broad jump affect that (because in real life it is a bug indicator) and do you emcorporate combine jump results in the rating that affects first step for edge rushers? (Which Inassume in the game is acceleration)


        If not, for future reference you may want to examine the correlation between elite edge rushers with a great first step and their vertical. I was quite surprised at first when I noticed this, but in hindsight it makes sense: your vertical is about explosive power, and so is the first step off the edge.





        Anyway, great work. I am definitely looking forward to this.
        I'd not made that connection but I can certainly add it in the next update. It'll be for all players though not just edge rushers.

        Comment

        • ranta21
          Rookie
          • Feb 2012
          • 46

          #5
          Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

          This is awesome stuff. Thank you!

          Some recommendations I'd like to suggest.

          -I would use (40 Time) - (20 Split) for SPD. Now you are double counting the first 20 yards (ACC and SPD). SPD in Madden is the maximum velocity. The last 20 yards of the 40 yard dash is the best measure we have for that. It would change the ratings quite a bit, but it would be more authentic, and no more double counting.

          *-I would also not count the 40 yard time in ACC for same reasons as above.

          -I would argue that Height shouldn't be a negative for STR. It is the one of the more important traits Coaches have for Offensive Tackles and Pass Rushers. I don't think it should be a negative.

          -Continuing with STR: Why not add Bench Reps and Arm Lenght to the formula? Arm Lenght is all about controlling opponents during blocking situations. If not available data, you could estimate the Arm Lenght based on Height. Bench Reps could be estimated with Weight.

          -We don't have Arm Lenght as an attribute but it is also very important to WR's and DB's. We could maybe add arm lenght attribute to JMP rating. Lets say we have two players with same Height, Vertical and Broad, but the other has few inches more arm lenght. I'd argue we should give him an edge in JMP to simulate the edge he has in jump balls.

          Like I said. This is excellent and will use this myself. Thank you again.
          Last edited by ranta21; 04-02-2019, 01:03 AM. Reason: * added ACC

          Comment

          • LOBBS
            Rookie
            • Nov 2018
            • 35

            #6
            Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

            Speed, by definition, is simply a distance in a matter of time. In theory, a player should still be accelerating (or at least have the opportunity to) thru the end of 40 yards. Without some Next Gen type stats, it's impossible to know if he hit/would have hit his max velocity at say 32 yards or 42 yards. I'd love to have that velocity number for all 2900+ players. However, the standard for years has been the time it takes to cover 40 yards.

            As far as acceleration using the splits goes, what you really have are three separate events in one attempt. A measure of 0-10, 0-20 and 0-40 yards. To attempt to capture that explosion in the acceleration curve I weighted the 0-10 more than the 0-20 which was more heavily weighted than the 0-40. You will notice that I did not select the values for maximum and minimum arbitrarily. Every calculation in my spreadsheet is a range between the minimum and maximum observed values in the dataset for that test. A player's rating is relative to his performance versus his peers. A solid score in the 0-10 and 0-20 relative to his peers is rewarded and a deceleration at some point in the 0-40 is penalized. I just don't break them out where you can see the score at each split. Again, not knowing exactly when and where a player hit his maximum velocity during the dash leaves us with making the best of the data we do have. I may play around with the weighting of the splits to put even further emphasis on the 0-10 and slightly more on the 0-20 but it may actually hurt the overall ratings. If I recall correctly, there are a handful of players with crazy fast bursts so the rest would all suffer a bit.

            Height, in and of itself, is not a penalty for strength. The scale for height runs from 5'8 to 6'8" with 6'8" being a 100 rating. Height without mass is penalized if it drops their "BMI". I chose "BMI" as it is a widely accepted formula for one's composition. Are they tall and skinny or tall with a filled out frame? The one that's fleshed out should be stronger than the beanpole. To help differentiate between being athletic and just being fat according to their BMI I did cross reference their 40 time with a constant. I am seriously considering breaking out the scores for all the combine/pro day drills in addition the 40 to give a better approximation of athleticism/strength in that regard when referenced against their BMI.

            I don't agree with bench press as a end all/be all measure of strength. Biomechanically, it's a pretty terrible exercise. It's pretty common in most serious strength programs to move away from it to more effective things like flies. I've heard a lot of draft scouts refer to it simply as a measure of whether the guy has a history of hitting the gym or not. I'd consider adding it as an additional data point but not carrying any significant weight relative to the other factors.

            I agree that arm length is important for some positions but not so much as a measurement of strength. For players on the edge it really is a measure of the radius a player can occupy without letting someone get into their body. Lineman with relatively short arms tend to get bumped down to an interior position where they're not expected to cover as much ground on an island, etc. I'll do some more research to see if there's any value into adding it.

            Comment

            • Mattryan720
              Rookie
              • Jan 2018
              • 22

              #7
              Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

              This is awesome

              Comment

              • NINJAK2
                *S *dd*ct
                • Jan 2003
                • 6185

                #8
                Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                LOBBS- I wanted to pose this question to you and any other roster editors. Please respond privately if you guys don't want to clog up the thread but I thought you or someone else may have an answer.

                Have any of you guys ever experienced a crash to the desktop when trying to use a specific team in a user created roster? I've been using a user created roster(Not your roster LOBBS) and for some reason when ever I try to play a game involving the Chiefs no matter if it's with them, against them, or just cpu vs cpu I get a hard crash back to desktop in the middle of loading the game. I have done a cpu vs cpu game with over 20 different teams thus far in this roster and the Chiefs are the only team that seems to cause this crash. Any idea what might cause this? I've looked through the roster with Amp and checked depth charts and can't seem to find anything off. Could having too many players on the team roster be the cause?
                EA and 2k have the unfortunate task of trying to balance on a tightrope of fun and sim while trying not to fall 10,000 feet to their death. Instead of a safety net waiting down below there will just be angry customers quick to move out of the way and talk of their failure.

                Comment

                • LOBBS
                  Rookie
                  • Nov 2018
                  • 35

                  #9
                  Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                  Originally posted by NINJAK2
                  LOBBS- I wanted to pose this question to you and any other roster editors. Please respond privately if you guys don't want to clog up the thread but I thought you or someone else may have an answer.

                  Have any of you guys ever experienced a crash to the desktop when trying to use a specific team in a user created roster? I've been using a user created roster(Not your roster LOBBS) and for some reason when ever I try to play a game involving the Chiefs no matter if it's with them, against them, or just cpu vs cpu I get a hard crash back to desktop in the middle of loading the game. I have done a cpu vs cpu game with over 20 different teams thus far in this roster and the Chiefs are the only team that seems to cause this crash. Any idea what might cause this? I've looked through the roster with Amp and checked depth charts and can't seem to find anything off. Could having too many players on the team roster be the cause?
                  Too many players on a team could cause a crash. I seem to remember 75 being the limit in Madden 19. I, personally, haven't seen a roster with the Chiefs having more than that. They only had 60 something in the EA roster I used as a base to build mine which was at the end of the season. There may be a limit on total players in the roster counting all the teams and free agents. If I recall correctly, there were 2980 total in mine. I do know that every EA based roster I've seen was around 1500k in file size. If the custom one you're using is significantly larger than that it could have too many players.

                  Comment

                  • NINJAK2
                    *S *dd*ct
                    • Jan 2003
                    • 6185

                    #10
                    Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                    Originally posted by LOBBS
                    Too many players on a team could cause a crash. I seem to remember 75 being the limit in Madden 19. I, personally, haven't seen a roster with the Chiefs having more than that. They only had 60 something in the EA roster I used as a base to build mine which was at the end of the season. There may be a limit on total players in the roster counting all the teams and free agents. If I recall correctly, there were 2980 total in mine. I do know that every EA based roster I've seen was around 1500k in file size. If the custom one you're using is significantly larger than that it could have too many players.
                    Thanks Lobbs. I'm pretty sure the total amount of players in the roster is 2980. The chiefs roster has no more than 60 players on it. It's just weird they are the only team causing the crash
                    Last edited by NINJAK2; 04-02-2019, 08:08 PM.
                    EA and 2k have the unfortunate task of trying to balance on a tightrope of fun and sim while trying not to fall 10,000 feet to their death. Instead of a safety net waiting down below there will just be angry customers quick to move out of the way and talk of their failure.

                    Comment

                    • ranta21
                      Rookie
                      • Feb 2012
                      • 46

                      #11
                      Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                      Originally posted by LOBBS
                      I'll do some more research to see if there's any value into adding it.
                      Thanks for a quick reply. Can't wait to see the results!

                      Comment

                      • Willchillz
                        Banned
                        • Feb 2012
                        • 527

                        #12
                        Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                        This seems really interesting and I might be interested in it
                        and in no way do I mean to shun you with the hard effort you've put in.
                        But I was instantly immediately deterred to see 99 ratings.

                        I saw that Tyreek Hill was 99 Speed along with others
                        He reaches a Top Speed of 23MPH
                        Randy Moss used to reach top speeds of at least around 27MPH.

                        This leaves no room to Scale anything actually realistic in the end spectrum, aside from going into like 105~ random ending hidden ratings.

                        Now I realize EA also put Tyreek at 99 - but it seems they must scale at the current NFL roster
                        and definitely inaccurate as his Acceleration makes up for his 40 times with his top speed being slower. Like Damiere Byrd who has ungodly acceleration but only 20mph~ top speed.

                        From all you've done it may be best to End-Scale with World Records
                        in their respective stat value rather than NFL Roster.

                        I hate to sound elitist about the project and turn my nose up on it,
                        but I feel if its only a little better than EA's roster which is literally 80% wrong in detail, maybe more.
                        Than I don't see the point of it.

                        165,000 edits to roster ratings is no joke or at least 80,000 for main ratings
                        but it hurts to see its not perfect for so much work.

                        Is there any chance to expect an update in regards to those things?
                        Last edited by Willchillz; 04-03-2019, 03:49 AM.

                        Comment

                        • tdawg3782
                          I hate you Norv
                          • Nov 2003
                          • 4803

                          #13
                          Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                          Real good stuff here Lobbs. Keep up the good work. I look forward to seeing what you can do with draft classes.

                          Comment

                          • LOBBS
                            Rookie
                            • Nov 2018
                            • 35

                            #14
                            Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                            Originally posted by Willchillz
                            This seems really interesting and I might be interested in it
                            and in no way do I mean to shun you with the hard effort you've put in.
                            But I was instantly immediately deterred to see 99 ratings.

                            I saw that Tyreek Hill was 99 Speed along with others
                            He reaches a Top Speed of 23MPH
                            Randy Moss used to reach top speeds of at least around 27MPH.

                            This leaves no room to Scale anything actually realistic in the end spectrum, aside from going into like 105~ random ending hidden ratings.

                            Now I realize EA also put Tyreek at 99 - but it seems they must scale at the current NFL roster
                            and definitely inaccurate as his Acceleration makes up for his 40 times with his top speed being slower. Like Damiere Byrd who has ungodly acceleration but only 20mph~ top speed.

                            From all you've done it may be best to End-Scale with World Records
                            in their respective stat value rather than NFL Roster.

                            I hate to sound elitist about the project and turn my nose up on it,
                            but I feel if its only a little better than EA's roster which is literally 80% wrong in detail, maybe more.
                            Than I don't see the point of it.

                            165,000 edits to roster ratings is no joke or at least 80,000 for main ratings
                            but it hurts to see its not perfect for so much work.

                            Is there any chance to expect an update in regards to those things?
                            Let's do the math here. Usain Bolt, the "Fastest Man Alive" ran the 100m (109.36yds) in 9.58 secs at a speed of 27.6 mph. Luckily, the question of how fast his 40yd dash was has been asked many times and analyzed. At the 30m mark of that sprint (32.81 yds) his split was 3.78 secs and at the 40m mark (43.74 yds) he was at 4.64 secs. That puts him thru the 40 yard mark at 4.34 seconds. Granted, this was during a longer race so his focus would have been to have a little in reserve. He did recently run a 4.22 at the Super Bowl tying John Ross's combine record. The bulk of his post-Olympic income has come from sponsorships tied to his legacy and it's been widely noted that he's been able to maintain his physique since (mainly due to his livelihood pretty much demanding so). So, we can't ever know what his 40 was in his prime. That's much shorter than anything that was really important to his career we can't assume that it's much better than his recent 4.22. Even a 4.18 drops Tyreek Hill, John Ross, etc. from a 99 to a 98 or so.

                            Randy Moss never hit 27mph on a football field. He claimed to run on his treadmill with it set to 27 mph (actually 26.5 if he wasn't hanging on to the rails). It took Bolt from halfway deep in one endzone at a full sprint without pads and no distraction of getting tackled to halfway deep into the other end zone to hit that mark. It's an irrelevant argument what Moss anecdotally claimed to do on a piece of exercise equipment. It certainly can't be compared to Next Gen stats for on-field speed. The fact that some of these guys are hitting 22-23 mph in pads while keeping an eye on not getting killed is amazing. But those speeds are being hit when they have 60-80 yards of daylight to attain them. Bolt didn't hit his max speed until the 90-95m (roughly 100 yards) mark.

                            So, no Tyreek, Ross and crew are more than capable of exceeding 23 mph in shorts and room to roam. Moss may or may not have hit 27 mph on a treadmill but for sure he never did it on a field. What we do have are 40 times that compare quite favorably to what the "Fastest Man on Earth" has posted (besting them referenced to his world record 100m dash and equal to or ever so slightly behind his post-Olympic 40). Unless we can go back in time to Bolt's prime and beg him to post a 40 for us geeks I'm not seeing a reason to vastly revise the speed ratings. The numbers the top NFL players are posting are already in the ranks of the elite sprinters.

                            Comment

                            • LOBBS
                              Rookie
                              • Nov 2018
                              • 35

                              #15
                              Re: LOBBS Roster Rating System-Roster Release

                              For those interested here's a graphical analysis of Usain Bolt's 100m with the 40 yard split.
                              Attached Files

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