Red Sox Reset - Monthly Edition: 16 win month not enough for Sox to make up any ground in AL East division race
On June 1st, the Boston Red Sox sat in third place in the American League East, 6.5 games out of first place.
On July 1st, the Boston Red Sox still sit in third place in the American League East, 6 games out of first place.
Not a whole lot has changed in the past month, with the exception of the Red Sox putting together some solid, consistent baseball. In fact, if you take out the recent 2-5 blip in the final seven games, the Sox put up an impressive 14-5 record the rest of June.
Still, it hasn't been enough for this team to gain on the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Whenever they seem to make ground on one team, the other pulls ahead. It should remain this way for the rest of the season.
The Sox let two slip away this past week against the Blue Jays, but they will have a chance to redeem themselves with seven games against Toronto coming up in the next 18 days. They also get a World Series rematch when the Los Angeles Dodgers visit Fenway following the All Star Game.
All eyes are focused on the end of the month, however.
Starting Monday July 22nd, the Sox will play 13 straight games against the Rays and Yankees. Seven of these will be at Fenway, including four against Tampa. This will also take the team through the trade deadline.
Essentially, we will know everything we need to know about the 2019 Red Sox come August 4th. They may look a little different than they do now - there are holes at first, potentially short, and in the bullpen that need to be addressed - but this stretch will tell us whether or not they have what it takes to repeat as World Series champions.
At the end of April, we looked at several areas of concern on the team and whether or not they could be fixed. Today, let's take a more positive spin - here are three areas of strength, and whether or not they can be sustained.
1. Scoring runs without hitting home runs: The Red Sox aren't exactly slouches when it comes to the long ball - they are tied for 14th in the MLB with 97 as a team, which is 16 more than Tampa Bay. J.D. Martinez is responsible for 29 of these, however, and there is a significant power outage when you look at the lineup outside of Martinez and Mookie Betts. That said, the team ranks fifth overall and third in the AL in runs scored (402), thanks in large part to a number of doubles (154) and solid team batting average (.278).
Can it last? Yes. The concern over the lack of home runs is overblown - it isn't like the Sox are last in the league or anything along those lines. Last year the team led the MLB in runs scored despite only ranking ninth in home runs. The team only really has one pure home run hitter in Martinez. Sure, it would be nice if Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Steve Pearce went yard a little more frequently (the five have combined for just 17 home runs so far) - but it feels like the Red Sox are over their run scoring problem for earlier in the season.
2. Starting Pitching: The Red Sox rank eighth in the league in team ERA, fourth in team shutouts, sixth in home runs allowed, first in walks allowed, and fifth in strikeouts. Chris Sale is battling with Collin McHugh and Blake Snell for the midway Cy Young award, but currently leads the majors in strikeouts (151) and is tied for fourth in wins (10). David Price seems to have figured out his struggles and has put together three strong starts in a row, while Eduardo Rodriguez is having a breakout season. Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello are solid if not spectacular.
Can it last? Maybe. When the starters are on, they are nearly untouchable. The problem is that they have been far too inconsistent over the past six weeks or so. Some of it is just baseball - you aren't going to have your best stuff every time out - but there are some issues that are concerning. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi have been tagged for 45 home runs so far, while Price, Eovaldi, and Porcello all have WHIPs higher than 1.40. Sale also left a start early with a sore shoulder, which brought back bad memories from the second half of last season. The Sox may be in the market for a starting pitcher depending on how the next few weeks shake out.
3. Jackie Bradley Jr., Rafael Devers, and Sandy Leon: Part of the reason the Red Sox have survived the before mentioned power outage from some of their hitters is because they have gotten a surprising number of home runs from this trio. Combined, they've hit 27 home runs so far - an impressive total, considering they hit 39 total last year. Devers has settled in nicely in clean-up position behind Martinez while Leon has offered some clutch hitting, particularly with the bases loaded, down at the bottom of the order. JBJ has been the ultimate Swiss army knife - sometimes hitting leadoff, sometimes second, sometimes fifth, and sometimes ninth.
Can it last? Tough to say. Devers has seen his average drop by over .20 points in the last week while Bradley Jr. is in his own slump. Leon has taken the starting role and run with it, but he will likely go back to splitting time with Christian Vazquez when he returns from the IL. Expect Devers to rebound and push for 25 home runs, but it is likely realistic that we will see both JBJ and Leon tail off as the season progresses.
