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PFellah · 09-22-2019, 08:28 AM

Build-a-Bear(ly Functioning Roster) Workshop: The 2019 Expansion Draft

First, taking a quick eyeball of the talent pool, it’s still heavy on defense, but not as bad as it was last year – there’s at least some tolerable forwards to be had in the pool this year. It does seem like the game’s understanding of bad/expiring contracts has improved and there’s some talented-but-expensive guys like Ondrej Palat ($5.9M) available that weren’t there last year.

If there's a “problem”, it's that the expiring contract guys are better than they’ve typically been. Matt Duchene, Gustav Nyquist, Derick Brassard, Marcus Johansson… there’s some actual real players. But do you want to roll the dice on one of those guys and then have them decide to test the market? Or, is having an exclusive window to negotiate with them worth passing on someone else from that team?

So let's roll up the sleeves and get into it. My rough methodology is: 1) Goalies first. 2) A first pass of "obvious" choices. 3) A second pass where I do kind of a knee-jerk choice to get a full roster. 4) Fine-tune and finalize.

GOALIES
I decide to start with goalies because it should only be three guys and it’s the position where I have the clearest strategy going in. Basically I want one solid veteran to start day one, and then 2 or 3 young guys with potential. I’ll start with three guys total, with a possibility I could snag a 4th goalie at the tail end of the process.

First, I’m eliminating Robin Lehner from consideration – it doesn’t feel right that he’s available. Besides, I had him in one of my ’19 franchises so there’s a little bit of “been there, done that”.

The best choices for that veteran starter are Seymon Varlamov (COL) and Cory Schneider (NJ) but they have opposite problems – Schneider is locked up for 4 more years at $6M per, while Varlamov is a free agent and could walk. The next best choice is Vancouver’s Jacob Markstrom – 85 OVR and under contract. (And Vancouver doesn’t have much else worth taking anyway.) Looks like he’s my starter.

Looking at the young guys for those other two slots, I've got a couple choices. Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry definitely one of them -- Elite potential, and as a Pens fan, I just like him. The other slot has two candidates. Eric Comrie (WPG) is only showing Fringe Starter, but he's already 80 OVR at age 23. Ottawa's Marcus Hogberg is showing Starter potential and the Sens' other choices stink. So I guess I'll take all three for now.

I'll note that there are a few other goalies I could take more as trade bait, but that'll be my first pass.

DEFENSE
Next, let’s look a first look at defense. The problem won’t be finding bodies, it’ll be how many to get and what mix of trade bait, current roster, and prospects.

First, we’ve got the expensive top-pair guys. Brent Burns (SJ, 90 OVR), Mike Giordano (CGY, 89 OVR), and Ryan McDonagh (TB, 87 OVR) are all guys who could immediately drop into top-pair, but they also have fairly painful contracts (McDonagh’s is an extension that kicks in if I draft him). Burns in particular is scheduled to get $8M a year until he’s 40. It’s not a problem today – every expansion team I’ve done so far has spent the first few years WELL under the cap -- but out toward the end of the deal, these could get ugly.

There’s a second tier that are a step down in overall rating, but also have more manageable contracts – Adam Larsson (EDM), Alex Martinez (LA), Jared Spurgeon (MIN), Mattias Ekholm (NSH), Jake Muzzin (TOR). Lower dollars, fewer years, or both. These are backbone guys I could really build around, or guys I could possibly sign and trade, depending on how much of a wheeler-dealer I want to be.

Then there’s the more prospecty types. Lots of guys in their early 20s with Top 4 or Elite potential, it’s just a question of mixing-and-matching, and the fact that I ultimately can’t go over 13 defensemen because of other roster minimums. Tony DeAngelo, Julius Honka, Haydn Fleury, Caleb Jones are names that stick out on first pass, but I could probably find 13 guys with SOME sort of “prospect” shine if I really wanted to go full youth movement.

FORWARDS
Forwards are going to be a bit of a grab-bag. There’s a few demi-prospects, a few tweeners like Conor Sheary who are too old to be prospects but still might be useful, a few expensive guys being dangled (Adam Henrique, Valeri Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat). It’ll be better than NHL 19 insofar as I’ll be able to field four credible lines at the end of the expansion draft, but it’s still not the cornucopia the defensemen are.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
First pass will just be “easy choices” – teams where either there’s one guy that stands out, either because the talent just isn’t there, or the contracts funnel the decision toward that one guy. Those adds will be:

ANA – RW Daniel Sprong (22, 82 OVR, Elite). Anaheim does have other good young players (Max Jones, Ondrej Kase, Jack Kopacka, but Sprong is prospecty AND can play today.
BOS – D Brandon Carlo (22, 84 OVR, Elite). Zach Senyshyn COULD get a look if numbers get dicey later, but for now, Carlo stands well above the rest. He is an RFA, but we'll figure that out.
CAR – D Haydn Fleury (22, 78, Top 4). Most of the other players are old guys or expiring contracts.
MIN – D Jared Spurgeon (29, 84, Top 4). Best of a bad bunch. He’s expensive (5.19M) but only has 2 years on his contract, so it’s not a long commitment.
NSH – D Mattias Ekholm (29, 85, Top 4). Good solid cornerstone pick. 4 years @ $3.75 is in that range where I could keep him OR he’d still hold trade value.
SJ – D Brent Burns (34, 90, Elite). $8M a year is painful but almost everyone on SJ’s list is a) an expiring free agent, b) not that good, or c) both. As a first draft, Burns is in the obvious choice bucket.
STL – C Jordan Kyrou (21, 72, Elite). The Blues have some decent young defensemen, but they’re showing Top 4, and it’s tough to find legit forward prospects, so Kyrou it is.

That puts us at 11 guys – 0 LW, 1 C, 1 RW, 5 D, 4 G. Now we gotta start making some tougher decisions.

KNEE-JERK - TEAM-BY-TEAM

ARI – RW Conor Garland isn’t showing as a GREAT prospect (Top 6 Med), but he’s sorta prospecty. (And in real life, he scored a goal with his face. Gotta respect that.) On the other hand, Arizona is a team that has lots of supporting-player types (Michael Grabner, Richard Panik) so this could be a place to round out the roster.
BUF – LW Conor Sheary seems like the most compelling pick, though as a Pens’ fan, I always felt like playing with Crosby propped up his stats.
CGY – Calgary has some decent choices, but looking at C Sam Bennett. Top 6 potential, 79 OVR at age 23, 89 speed, and also gets rave reviews for his leadership.
CHI – Erik Gustafsson is looking like the best of a bad lot. 84 OVR, team-friendly contract.
COL – Most of Colorado's best choices under contract are middle-ground defensemen -- not good enough to be trade bait; not prospecty. So first pass, I'm going to roll the dice on my first free agent and see if C Derick Brassard can be convinced to stay.
CBJ – Same as Columbus, but even higher stakes. Matt Duchene is 87-Elite... that's a #1 center. But he's also a free agent, so I'd have to hope I can convince him to re-sign during the exclusive week. But since the other choices aren't compelling, let's do it.
DAL – I've got three Elite-rated young guys to choose from -- D Julius Honka, C Jason Dickinson, and RW Denis Gurianov. Honka has a little more existing pedigree, but again... defense is pretty deep. Since I'm feeling exposed having Duchene and Brassard both be free agents, Dickinson makes me feel better.
DET – Defensemen, expensive rentals, or LW Givani Smith, who is sorta prospecty (21 years old, Top 9/Low potential) but also plays more as a Grinder or Enforcer. Smith for now, but not sold on the move.
EDM – Here it’s basically a two-man race at the blue-line: 26-year-old Adam Larsson for the established guy, or 22-year-old Caleb Jones for more of a prospect look. Since there are other mid-career guys yet to come, I think I’ll go with the kid this time and give Jones the slot.
FLA – Uninspiring choices here. Gonna take D Ian McCoshen for the moment, but if defense gets crowded, he’d be another one that could be out the door early.
LA – We'll start with D Alec Martinez, but could easily move to RW Tyler Toffoli if there are too many defensemen to choose from. After those two, it gets funky.
MTL – Joel Armia is probably the best pick on talent, but he's a free agent. Karl Alzner is a good cornerstone D, Xavier Ouellet a more prospecty choice. I'll go Armia for now.
NJ – Ew. The “best” choices are Top 9 forwards. I guess I’ll take LW John Quenneville because he’s the youngest guy available, but not feeling it.
NYI – If I think Brock Nelson would be worth 6 years at $6M each, I could take him; otherwise it gets dicey fast. For now, we’ll go with young defenseman Parker Wotherspoon.
NYR – It’s really a choice between Valeri Namestnikov or Tony DeAngelo. Namestnikov could be a top six forward, but Tony D. is one of my sentimental favorites, so let’s grab him.
PHI – Best choices are RWs -- it's a coin-flip between Ryan Hartman and Justin Bailey. Bailey is a year younger, so let's go with him.
TB – Officially, Anthony Cirelli isn’t that exciting because he’s showing Bottom 6 potential. But he’s already 79 OVR at age 21, so not sure there’s anything wrong with a guy who’s “just” a really good third-liner.
TOR – Jake Muzzin is head-and-shoulders the best choice unless I think Kasperi Kapanen is drastically under-rated or Nic Petan is really an Elite. For the moment, Muzzin.
WSH – This one’s going to be a little bit of a reach pick – RW Andre Burakovsky. On one hand, he's a free agent; on the other hand, he some pedigree as a goal scorer..

Looking at where things stand after the first pass:

So, let’s take one look before finalizing:

GOALIES (4): Eric Comrie, Marcus Hogberg, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom
DEFENSEMEN (12): Brent Burns, Brandon Carlo, Tony DeAngelo, Mattias Ekholm, Haydn Fleury, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Ian McCoshen, Jared Spurgeon, Parker Wotherspoon.
LEFT WING (3): John Quenneville, Conor Sheary, Givani Smith.
CENTER (6): Sam Bennett, Derick Brassard, Anthony Cirelli, Jason Dickinson, Matt Duchene, Jordan Kyrou
RIGHT WING (5): Joel Armia, Justin Bailey, Andre Burakovsky, Conor Garland, Daniel Sprong.

The good news: goalies and defense are fine. Defense in particular is stacked enough I can maybe deal a guy or two.

Right wing is tolerable as long as I can reach terms with Armia. Sprong-Armia-Burakovsky-Garland plays; maybe add a guy in free agency. Center is fine IF I can re-sign Duchene and Brassard. If they leave in free agency, I get real young at the position real fast. Cirelli and Bennett as #3 and #4... cool. Cirelli and Bennett as top-sixers... ew.

Left wing... is a tire fire. Three guys, two of whom are prospecty and at least a year away, and neither is an A-list prospect. It seems like the simplest way to clean this up is to take a couple names from the bottom of the defense (McCoshen, Wotherspoon, DeAngelo) to shore up left wing.

Rangers: remove Tony De'Angelo, add Vladislav Namestnikov
Islanders: remove Parker Wotherspoon, add Anders Lee

Lee's a pending free agent. If I somehow lose him, I'll look at moving a defenseman to bring someone in, but for the moment, swing for the fences on a guy who could be a top-line guy.

FINAL EXPANSION ROSTER

GOALIES (4): Eric Comrie, Marcus Hogberg, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom
DEFENSEMEN (10): Brent Burns, Brandon Carlo, Mattias Ekholm, Haydn Fleury, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Ian McCoshen, Jared Spurgeon.
LEFT WING (5): Anders Lee, Vladislav Namestnikov, John Quenneville, Conor Sheary, Givani Smith.
CENTER (6): Sam Bennett, Derick Brassard, Anthony Cirelli, Jason Dickinson, Matt Duchene, Jordan Kyrou
RIGHT WING (5): Joel Armia, Justin Bailey, Andre Burakovsky, Conor Garland, Daniel Sprong.

09-22-2019, 08:28 AM	#4
PFellah Rookie OVR: 5 Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Pittsburgh, PA	Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!) Build-a-Bear(ly Functioning Roster) Workshop: The 2019 Expansion Draft First, taking a quick eyeball of the talent pool, it’s still heavy on defense, but not as bad as it was last year – there’s at least some tolerable forwards to be had in the pool this year. It does seem like the game’s understanding of bad/expiring contracts has improved and there’s some talented-but-expensive guys like Ondrej Palat ($5.9M) available that weren’t there last year. If there's a “problem”, it's that the expiring contract guys are better than they’ve typically been. Matt Duchene, Gustav Nyquist, Derick Brassard, Marcus Johansson… there’s some actual real players. But do you want to roll the dice on one of those guys and then have them decide to test the market? Or, is having an exclusive window to negotiate with them worth passing on someone else from that team? So let's roll up the sleeves and get into it. My rough methodology is: 1) Goalies first. 2) A first pass of "obvious" choices. 3) A second pass where I do kind of a knee-jerk choice to get a full roster. 4) Fine-tune and finalize. GOALIES I decide to start with goalies because it should only be three guys and it’s the position where I have the clearest strategy going in. Basically I want one solid veteran to start day one, and then 2 or 3 young guys with potential. I’ll start with three guys total, with a possibility I could snag a 4th goalie at the tail end of the process. First, I’m eliminating Robin Lehner from consideration – it doesn’t feel right that he’s available. Besides, I had him in one of my ’19 franchises so there’s a little bit of “been there, done that”. The best choices for that veteran starter are Seymon Varlamov (COL) and Cory Schneider (NJ) but they have opposite problems – Schneider is locked up for 4 more years at $6M per, while Varlamov is a free agent and could walk. The next best choice is Vancouver’s Jacob Markstrom – 85 OVR and under contract. (And Vancouver doesn’t have much else worth taking anyway.) Looks like he’s my starter. Looking at the young guys for those other two slots, I've got a couple choices. Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry definitely one of them -- Elite potential, and as a Pens fan, I just like him. The other slot has two candidates. Eric Comrie (WPG) is only showing Fringe Starter, but he's already 80 OVR at age 23. Ottawa's Marcus Hogberg is showing Starter potential and the Sens' other choices stink. So I guess I'll take all three for now. I'll note that there are a few other goalies I could take more as trade bait, but that'll be my first pass. DEFENSE Next, let’s look a first look at defense. The problem won’t be finding bodies, it’ll be how many to get and what mix of trade bait, current roster, and prospects. First, we’ve got the expensive top-pair guys. Brent Burns (SJ, 90 OVR), Mike Giordano (CGY, 89 OVR), and Ryan McDonagh (TB, 87 OVR) are all guys who could immediately drop into top-pair, but they also have fairly painful contracts (McDonagh’s is an extension that kicks in if I draft him). Burns in particular is scheduled to get $8M a year until he’s 40. It’s not a problem today – every expansion team I’ve done so far has spent the first few years WELL under the cap -- but out toward the end of the deal, these could get ugly. There’s a second tier that are a step down in overall rating, but also have more manageable contracts – Adam Larsson (EDM), Alex Martinez (LA), Jared Spurgeon (MIN), Mattias Ekholm (NSH), Jake Muzzin (TOR). Lower dollars, fewer years, or both. These are backbone guys I could really build around, or guys I could possibly sign and trade, depending on how much of a wheeler-dealer I want to be. Then there’s the more prospecty types. Lots of guys in their early 20s with Top 4 or Elite potential, it’s just a question of mixing-and-matching, and the fact that I ultimately can’t go over 13 defensemen because of other roster minimums. Tony DeAngelo, Julius Honka, Haydn Fleury, Caleb Jones are names that stick out on first pass, but I could probably find 13 guys with SOME sort of “prospect” shine if I really wanted to go full youth movement. FORWARDS Forwards are going to be a bit of a grab-bag. There’s a few demi-prospects, a few tweeners like Conor Sheary who are too old to be prospects but still might be useful, a few expensive guys being dangled (Adam Henrique, Valeri Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat). It’ll be better than NHL 19 insofar as I’ll be able to field four credible lines at the end of the expansion draft, but it’s still not the cornucopia the defensemen are. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER First pass will just be “easy choices” – teams where either there’s one guy that stands out, either because the talent just isn’t there, or the contracts funnel the decision toward that one guy. Those adds will be: ANA – RW Daniel Sprong (22, 82 OVR, Elite). Anaheim does have other good young players (Max Jones, Ondrej Kase, Jack Kopacka, but Sprong is prospecty AND can play today. BOS – D Brandon Carlo (22, 84 OVR, Elite). Zach Senyshyn COULD get a look if numbers get dicey later, but for now, Carlo stands well above the rest. He is an RFA, but we'll figure that out. CAR – D Haydn Fleury (22, 78, Top 4). Most of the other players are old guys or expiring contracts. MIN – D Jared Spurgeon (29, 84, Top 4). Best of a bad bunch. He’s expensive (5.19M) but only has 2 years on his contract, so it’s not a long commitment. NSH – D Mattias Ekholm (29, 85, Top 4). Good solid cornerstone pick. 4 years @ $3.75 is in that range where I could keep him OR he’d still hold trade value. SJ – D Brent Burns (34, 90, Elite). $8M a year is painful but almost everyone on SJ’s list is a) an expiring free agent, b) not that good, or c) both. As a first draft, Burns is in the obvious choice bucket. STL – C Jordan Kyrou (21, 72, Elite). The Blues have some decent young defensemen, but they’re showing Top 4, and it’s tough to find legit forward prospects, so Kyrou it is. That puts us at 11 guys – 0 LW, 1 C, 1 RW, 5 D, 4 G. Now we gotta start making some tougher decisions. KNEE-JERK - TEAM-BY-TEAM ARI – RW Conor Garland isn’t showing as a GREAT prospect (Top 6 Med), but he’s sorta prospecty. (And in real life, he scored a goal with his face. Gotta respect that.) On the other hand, Arizona is a team that has lots of supporting-player types (Michael Grabner, Richard Panik) so this could be a place to round out the roster. BUF – LW Conor Sheary seems like the most compelling pick, though as a Pens’ fan, I always felt like playing with Crosby propped up his stats. CGY – Calgary has some decent choices, but looking at C Sam Bennett. Top 6 potential, 79 OVR at age 23, 89 speed, and also gets rave reviews for his leadership. CHI – Erik Gustafsson is looking like the best of a bad lot. 84 OVR, team-friendly contract. COL – Most of Colorado's best choices under contract are middle-ground defensemen -- not good enough to be trade bait; not prospecty. So first pass, I'm going to roll the dice on my first free agent and see if C Derick Brassard can be convinced to stay. CBJ – Same as Columbus, but even higher stakes. Matt Duchene is 87-Elite... that's a #1 center. But he's also a free agent, so I'd have to hope I can convince him to re-sign during the exclusive week. But since the other choices aren't compelling, let's do it. DAL – I've got three Elite-rated young guys to choose from -- D Julius Honka, C Jason Dickinson, and RW Denis Gurianov. Honka has a little more existing pedigree, but again... defense is pretty deep. Since I'm feeling exposed having Duchene and Brassard both be free agents, Dickinson makes me feel better. DET – Defensemen, expensive rentals, or LW Givani Smith, who is sorta prospecty (21 years old, Top 9/Low potential) but also plays more as a Grinder or Enforcer. Smith for now, but not sold on the move. EDM – Here it’s basically a two-man race at the blue-line: 26-year-old Adam Larsson for the established guy, or 22-year-old Caleb Jones for more of a prospect look. Since there are other mid-career guys yet to come, I think I’ll go with the kid this time and give Jones the slot. FLA – Uninspiring choices here. Gonna take D Ian McCoshen for the moment, but if defense gets crowded, he’d be another one that could be out the door early. LA – We'll start with D Alec Martinez, but could easily move to RW Tyler Toffoli if there are too many defensemen to choose from. After those two, it gets funky. MTL – Joel Armia is probably the best pick on talent, but he's a free agent. Karl Alzner is a good cornerstone D, Xavier Ouellet a more prospecty choice. I'll go Armia for now. NJ – Ew. The “best” choices are Top 9 forwards. I guess I’ll take LW John Quenneville because he’s the youngest guy available, but not feeling it. NYI – If I think Brock Nelson would be worth 6 years at $6M each, I could take him; otherwise it gets dicey fast. For now, we’ll go with young defenseman Parker Wotherspoon. NYR – It’s really a choice between Valeri Namestnikov or Tony DeAngelo. Namestnikov could be a top six forward, but Tony D. is one of my sentimental favorites, so let’s grab him. PHI – Best choices are RWs -- it's a coin-flip between Ryan Hartman and Justin Bailey. Bailey is a year younger, so let's go with him. TB – Officially, Anthony Cirelli isn’t that exciting because he’s showing Bottom 6 potential. But he’s already 79 OVR at age 21, so not sure there’s anything wrong with a guy who’s “just” a really good third-liner. TOR – Jake Muzzin is head-and-shoulders the best choice unless I think Kasperi Kapanen is drastically under-rated or Nic Petan is really an Elite. For the moment, Muzzin. WSH – This one’s going to be a little bit of a reach pick – RW Andre Burakovsky. On one hand, he's a free agent; on the other hand, he some pedigree as a goal scorer.. Looking at where things stand after the first pass: So, let’s take one look before finalizing: GOALIES (4): Eric Comrie, Marcus Hogberg, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom DEFENSEMEN (12): Brent Burns, Brandon Carlo, Tony DeAngelo, Mattias Ekholm, Haydn Fleury, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Ian McCoshen, Jared Spurgeon, Parker Wotherspoon. LEFT WING (3): John Quenneville, Conor Sheary, Givani Smith. CENTER (6): Sam Bennett, Derick Brassard, Anthony Cirelli, Jason Dickinson, Matt Duchene, Jordan Kyrou RIGHT WING (5): Joel Armia, Justin Bailey, Andre Burakovsky, Conor Garland, Daniel Sprong. The good news: goalies and defense are fine. Defense in particular is stacked enough I can maybe deal a guy or two. Right wing is tolerable as long as I can reach terms with Armia. Sprong-Armia-Burakovsky-Garland plays; maybe add a guy in free agency. Center is fine IF I can re-sign Duchene and Brassard. If they leave in free agency, I get real young at the position real fast. Cirelli and Bennett as #3 and #4... cool. Cirelli and Bennett as top-sixers... ew. Left wing... is a tire fire. Three guys, two of whom are prospecty and at least a year away, and neither is an A-list prospect. It seems like the simplest way to clean this up is to take a couple names from the bottom of the defense (McCoshen, Wotherspoon, DeAngelo) to shore up left wing. Rangers: remove Tony De'Angelo, add Vladislav Namestnikov Islanders: remove Parker Wotherspoon, add Anders Lee Lee's a pending free agent. If I somehow lose him, I'll look at moving a defenseman to bring someone in, but for the moment, swing for the fences on a guy who could be a top-line guy. FINAL EXPANSION ROSTER GOALIES (4): Eric Comrie, Marcus Hogberg, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom DEFENSEMEN (10): Brent Burns, Brandon Carlo, Mattias Ekholm, Haydn Fleury, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Ian McCoshen, Jared Spurgeon. LEFT WING (5): Anders Lee, Vladislav Namestnikov, John Quenneville, Conor Sheary, Givani Smith. CENTER (6): Sam Bennett, Derick Brassard, Anthony Cirelli, Jason Dickinson, Matt Duchene, Jordan Kyrou RIGHT WING (5): Joel Armia, Justin Bailey, Andre Burakovsky, Conor Garland, Daniel Sprong. Last edited by PFellah; 12-01-2019 at 03:37 PM.