2019 Free Agency
As usual with expansion teams, our first free agency is fairly straightforward. Try not to lose the guys we had coming in, deal with our RFAs, possibly sign Kakko to his ELC. We have north of $40M to spend, but we will be locking some of that up trying to keep our big-ticket guys.
RE-SIGN PHASE
UFAs (4)- C Matt Duchene (previous: 6M, asking: 7 years @ $7.875)
- LW Anders Lee (previous: 3.75M, asking: 6 years @ $5.975)
- G Semyon Varlamov (previous: 5.9M, asking: 3 years @ $4.825)
- C Derick Brassard (previous: 3M, asking: 4 years @ $4.750)
OK, Varlamov is just passing through -- we got him in the draft-day deal to keep salaries under the cap, but I neer had any intention of keeping him. I think I'm going to give Lee and Duchene what they want -- they'll only be in their mid-30s when those deals expire, and it gives us credibility dealing with other free agents. If they age badly, we'll figure that out when it arises. Brassard is the tough call here. I kinda want to keep him around, but I'm not sure he's worth almost $5M a year. He also shows "No" on an extension, so he might not sign anyway.
RFAs (10)- D Brandon Carlo (790k, 4 @ 3.625)
- RW Andre Burakovsky (3.0M, 3 @ 3.2M)
- D Haydn Fleury (865k, 3 @ 2.875M)
- D Ian McCoshen (925k, 3 @ 2.05M)
- RW Joel Armia (1.85M, 1 @ 1.55M)
- RW Justin Bailey (715k, 2 @ 1.1M)
- C Jason Dickinson (875k, 1 @ 875k)
- C Sam Bennett (1.95M, 1 @1.225M)
- G Eric Comrie (700k, 1 @ 1.025M)
- LW John Quenneville (810k, 1 @ 900k)
I'm feeling like Armia/1.5M-ish is the cutoff for "easy" decisions where I'll probably just renew all those guys at what they're asking. Other than Quenneville, they're all asking acceptable money for the role they're likely to play. As far as Quenneville, whatever... below $1M is just organizational depth anyway.
On the "tough" decisions, I'll probably give in on Carlo and McCoshen. Fleury and Burakovsky will get RFA tenders to preserve my right to match, but not in a huge hurry on either -- Fleury is bench depth, and if Kakko is at all decent, he's pushing Burakovsky to the bottom 6.
EXPIRING UNSIGNED ROOKIES (0)
None at this point, but I'm creating a placeholder for consistent formatting in future years.
JUNE 25
First offers go out. As discussed above, Armia and everyone below him get what they're asking, as do Duchene and Lee. The other RFAs get tenders. With Brassard, I decide to do a short deal but higher on money -- 2 years at $5M per. It's an overpay today, but it'll be off the books quickly. If he doesn't accept, I may just take it to free agency and see what the other options are.
UFA offers (3): Brassard, Duchene, Lee
RFA offers (6): Armia, Bailey, Bennett, Comrie, Dickinson, Quenneville
RFA Tenders (4): Burakovsky, Carlo, Fleury, McCoshen
Released (1): Varlamov
JUNE 26
Accept: Armia, Bennett, Comrie, Dickinson, Lee, Quenneville.
Reject - Bailey, Brassard, Duchene
Cap space drops from about $43M to about $35.3M. Duchene gets a new offer (5 years @ $8M), Bailey gets an RFA tender for playing hardball, and Brassard can walk.
JUNE 27
Duchene rejects. Trying 5 years at $8.2M.
JUNE 28
Duchene rejects again. Trying 3 years at $9M. If this doesn't work, I guess we probably go to free agency, but this time he signs. Expensive, but a short enough deal it shouldn't get me in too much trouble.
While we're at it, I also offer ELC's to Kakko and Kasparaitis. Figure they're both Top 20 picks, they'll either start with the team or be there next year.
OPEN FREE AGENCY
Let's try to break this down by position.
CENTER (5): Matt Duchene 87, Jason Dickinson 80, Jordan Kyrou 79, Sam Bennett 79, Anthony Cirelli 78.
The scouting on Kyrou is weak, so it wouldn't surprise me if he needs a year in the minors. Similarly, I don't think another year of seasoning would hurt Dickinson, so if I sign a #2 center and push him down the depth chart, I'm OK with that. The best free agents are RFAs (William Karlsson, Brayden Point). UFAs drop off quick -- it's Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Brassard, and then a bunch of guys who may or may not be better than what I have. The interesting play here would be stealing Anthony Beauvillier from the Isles as a RFA signing. He's only asking $1.6M, so he'd cost me a 3rd
LEFT WING (5): Anders Lee 85, Conor Sheary 81, Vladislav Namestnikov 80, John Quenneville 72, Givani Smith 64
Smith definitely belongs in the minors. Quenneville is bubble -- he could go to the minors or be a bench part who plays when other people are hurt. So I could use AT LEAST one guy, and two might be better. Fortunately, the market at LW is pretty healthy -- Panarin is the big fish, but there's a decent second tier (Marcus Johansson, Ryan Dzingel, Micheal Ferland) that might be worth a look.
RIGHT WING (6): Joel Armia 82, Daniel Sprong 82, Conor Garland 70, Kaapo Kakko ??, Andre Burakovsky 78 (RFA tender), Justin Bailey 76 (RFA tender)
I have bodies, but Garland could live in the minors and Armia is on a friendly enough contract he could be a depth piece. Burakovsky starts to look like a luxury if he wants $3M or more. The big question mark is where Kakko settles in to the depth chart. Much like center, things drop off quick -- Gustav Nyquist and Wayne Simmonds are the big prizes and then it gets weird.
DEFENSE (9): Brent Burns 90, Jake Muzzin 85, Erik Gustafsson 84, Jared Spurgeon 84, Caleb Jones 82, Andrei Kasparaitis ??, Brandon Carlo 84 (RFA tender), Haydn Fleury 80 (RFA tender), Ian McCoshen 78 (RFA tender).
No real needs here, mostly just depth signings. I do always like having a veteran 7th whose development won't be hurt by sitting. The one potentially interesting thing is it actually has Kasparaitis on the depth chart at the moment, but that may just be because RFAs don't count as active-roster. We'll see if that lasts. If I wanted to try and corner the market or needed to spend money, there are guys -- Jake Gardiner, Tyler Myers, Ryan Murray headline.
GOALIES (4): Jacob Markstrom 85, Eric Comrie 80, Tristan Jarry 78, Marcus Hogberg 66.
No needs, but if a goalie better than Hogberg emerged, I'd at least consider it.
So to summarize: primary goals are a #2 center, a #1 left wing, and a veteran 7th defenseman. Secondary goals would be another body at right and left wing. Similar to the veteran defenseman, a versatile veteran forward also wouldn't hurt.
JULY 1
The first batch of offers go out. Main targets are Artemi Panarin (7 years @ 8.5M), LW Marcus Johansson (4 years @ 5M), C Joe Thornton (2 years @ 4.825M), D Chris Wideman as the 7th defenseman (1 year @ 1.075M), and a lowball offer on RFA C Anthony Beauvillier (1.375M, just below the line for a 3rd).
JULY 5
First responses come back. Johansson and Wideman are a yes. Beauvillier a no – resigns with the Isles, but that was kind of a weak shot anyway. Thornton rejects, but says more money might sway him. If I’m gonna have to pay $5M for Thornton, figure I’ll try to get Pavelski for $6.5M instead. Panarin is still thinking, but he also doesn’t seem to have any other offers. Not sure exactly what to do next, so I give Panarin another day or two to percolate.
JULY 6
PANARIN ACCEPTS! Left wing has gone from a weakness to a strength – Panarin, Lee, Johansson, Sheary, Namestnikov. Waiting on Pavelski and then I have most of a roster, except for dealing with RFAs and signing some warm bodies for the minors.
JULY 9
Pavelski signs! Top three targets acquired. So now I have 27 players under contract, about $8M in cap space left. Let's turn to cleanup tasks for a bit.
On the RFA front, I think I want to get Carlo signed and generally check to see if anyone's ask has gone down. Burakovsky has come down to a more reasonable $1.85M, so I’ll offer an even $1.8M for two years. Carlo wants 4 years, 3.7M; I offer 3.3M. Fleury and McCoshen are still holding firm, so I’ll wait a little longer on them. In a related note, I decide to offer on RW Zach Aston-Reese just because I like Penguins. If I get him, he kinda-sorta takes Justin Bailey’s roster spot. Technically he’s an RFA, but I keep it below the tender line (1.35M).
Meanwhile, I’m gonna basically stock the minors with two-way contracts. Based on some “know it when I see it” combination of youth/potential/speed/willingness to accept a two-way deal, a bunch of offers go out: Two-way deals for RW Beau Bennett, C Chase DeLeo, G Zach Fucale, C Axel Holmstrom, LW Juuso Ikonen, C Adam Johnson, LW Kalle Kossila, D Keaton Middleton, D Markus Niemelainen, RW Markus Nurmi, LW Shawn St-Amant, D Keaton Thompson.
JULY 11
Wait... crap. Burakovsky signed his tender for $3M. Ouch. He's an OK player, but if Kakko is good, I'm paying $3M for a 4th-liner. Oh well. Only for one year.
JULY 12
Carlo signs. That leaves just Bailey, Fleury, and McCoshen as RFAs, and their tenders are all under a million. If they hold out, OK. If they sign, also OK. Also 5 of the 12 San Antonio dudes ink deals. 35 contracts, $3.6M cap space.
JULY 13
ZAR accepts, and now we see if the Pens match. Additionally, the rest of the Scrub Squad signs, putting us at 42 contracts.
JULY 15
Pens don’t match, so ZAR is officially a Renegade! Still have about $3M in cap space remaining, but think I’ll leave that in case my RFAs sign their tenders. At this point I’ll sim out to the end of the month and call it a done deal.
MAJOR SIGNINGS (OVER $1M/YEAR)- LW Artemi Panarin (7/8.5M)
- C Joe Pavelski (1/6.5M)
- LW Marcus Johansson (4/5.0M)
- D Brandon Carlo (4/3,3M) (RFA re-sign)
- RW Andre Burakovsky (1/3.0M)
- RW Zach Aston-Reese (1/1.35M)
- D Chris Wideman (1/1.075M)