The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

[Cycloniac]

Welcome to year 3 of the project!

Like previous years, these ratings were calculated using a three-year baseline (when possible) to assess everything a player does on the ice. Both standard and advanced NHL statistics drive these ratings. Based on last year's results, improvements to the algorithm used to drive ratings calculation were made across the board.

These rosters were developed with franchise mode in mind as that is my favorite mode, and I'm strictly an offline player. The ratings work well within EA's system, but ensure player differentiation is improved.

If a player isn't listed, EA's default is used. Calculated overalls are accurate, +/- 2



You can find the ratings spreadsheet here, which is being updated as progress is made: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAoHIeEMGM0AW2EGZo2cPi34OS

ROSTER NOW AVAILABLE

Merry Christmas everyone!

After 70+ hours of hard work, the roster is complete and ready for franchise. You can download it here:

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AghAoHIeEMGM4nM-ZELoaOaWv2ra?e=PYdxrv

In the roster, you will find:
-Transactions and contracts updated as of today (Dec 24, 2020), including all RFA signings and entry level contract signings*
-Missing prospects created for 1st rounds of 2019 and 2020 NHL Draft
-Player types and attributes updated from scratch for 750+ players in the NHL/AHL
-All prospects expected to debut in the AHL have been moved from the CHL
-Free agency cleaned up, LTIR players moved to national teams

*For the three key players who haven't signed new contracts (Cirelli, Bear, Barzal), I gave them new contracts, using the asking prices in franchise mode.

How to Install with Save Wizard

Shanster has published the steps to be taken in a different thread. I have followed step-by-step and it worked:

1) Plug a USB stick into your PS4, go to Settings -> Application Saved Data Management -> Saved Data in System Storage -> Copy to USB -> NHL. You have to save BOTH your profile and the roster to overwrite

2) Bring that over to your computer, plug it in and open Save Wizard

3) You'll see a folder on your stick called "PS4" with a folder inside named a bunch of nonsense. Inside THAT folder is a folder called CUSA-something or other. That's the hash name of NHL 20.

4) What I do is duplicate the entire PS4 folder and call it "duplicate" or something and replace the profile and roster files in there (i.e. yours) with the ones you download.

5) Zip your new folder, calling it PS4

6) Open Save Wizard, go to re-sign, and make sure you have your USB slot selected (bottom left) it should display CUSA-whatever on that screen

7) Double click on the CUSA-whatever, select both the Profile and Roster that show there, click the import button

8) Select your new zip (it has to be a zip for it to work) and then hit Import, wait

9) Should get a happy message if all is well!

The nice thing is after you do that once, you ONLY need the roster file from there on out.

Suggested Franchise Setup

Spoiler

Auto Rotate Goalies: Off
I like to manually rotate my goalies. I usually start my backup every 4 games, and during the second game of a back-to-back. If I end up with a really good goalie tandem, then I start my backup more frequently.

Sim Engine Scoring: Low
This seems to give the most realistic scoring and goalie stats. There is also some variance. Sometimes, I see 8+ 100 and over point scorers, others only 1 or 2.

Sim Engine Shot Frequency: Medium

Trade difficulty: Hard

Fog of War: On
Show Player Type: On - As a GM, I think you should at least have a general idea of a player's style.

All other settings are default/user preference.

[TopThrillAnthony]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

Excited to see the work in the coming weeks! So far, ratings look good, except I don't know if I'd call Mika Zibanejad a 93 (i did the rating, this is what he comes out to in the game). This is coming from a guy who's favorite player is Mika Zibanejad.

P.S. - To the people who use these ratings, the ratings for D-men are glitched in the game. When you go to adjust the attributes, the rating shown there will be LOWER than their ACTUAL rating. This is a game issue.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

Excited to see the work in the coming weeks! So far, ratings look good, except I don't know if I'd call Mika Zibanejad a 93 (i did the rating, this is what he comes out to in the game). This is coming from a guy who's favorite player is Mika Zibanejad.

P.S. - To the people who use these ratings, the ratings for D-men are glitched in the game. When you go to adjust the attributes, the rating shown there will be LOWER than their ACTUAL rating. This is a game issue.

I don't think you're appreciating how good he really is.
-He's an excellent skater (13 rush chances last year, +10 penalties drawn to taken ratio at 5 on 5)

-He drives play really well (+4.5, +3.4, +7.4 in relative corsi at 5-on-5 the past 3 seasons, despite starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone 2 of those 3 years). He also had a positive corsi (50.3%) despite playing on a bad Rangers squad that :
-played against the 2nd easiest schedule in the NHL, but had a negative corsi rating (46.8%)
-was 24th in the league at preventing goals. The only reason they weren't worse is because of good goalie play, especially at 5-on-5 where they had a save percentage of .926, compared to the .924 NHL average).


-He is an effective hitter (at least a hit per game 2 of the last 3 seasons)

-He's always on the ice (21.6 minutes per game last year, 20.5 in 2018-19, and he's a forward)

-He plays against the most difficult competition (>50% of starts in the defensive zone the past 2 seasons, 54% last year)

-He kills penalties (2.62 minutes on the PK per game this year, 1.98 last year). He led all Rangers forwards in PK time per game last season. Only Marc Staal was on the ice in penalty killing situations more. AND he had a positive relative corsi on the PK last year (+4.3), which is best on the team for skaters logging more than 2 minutes of PK time per game.

-He is an excellent scorer (>1 goal per 60 the last 3 seasons, 1.995 last year, with shooting percentages >12% each of the past 3 seasons)

He is really good.

[dcolby92]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

I don't think you're appreciating how good he really is.
-He's an excellent skater (13 rush chances last year, +10 penalties drawn to taken ratio at 5 on 5)

-He drives play really well (+4.5, +3.4, +7.4 in relative corsi at 5-on-5 the past 3 seasons, despite starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone 2 of those 3 years). He also had a positive corsi (50.3%) despite playing on a bad Rangers squad that :
-played against the 2nd easiest schedule in the NHL, but had a negative corsi rating (46.8%)
-was 24th in the league at preventing goals. The only reason they weren't worse is because of good goalie play, especially at 5-on-5 where they had a save percentage of .926, compared to the .924 NHL average).


-He is an effective hitter (at least a hit per game 2 of the last 3 seasons)

-He's always on the ice (21.6 minutes per game last year, 20.5 in 2018-19, and he's a forward)

-He plays against the most difficult competition (>50% of starts in the defensive zone the past 2 seasons, 54% last year)

-He kills penalties (2.62 minutes on the PK per game this year, 1.98 last year). He led all Rangers forwards in PK time per game last season. Only Marc Staal was on the ice in penalty killing situations more. AND he had a positive relative corsi on the PK last year (+4.3), which is best on the team for skaters logging more than 2 minutes of PK time per game.

-He is an excellent scorer (>1 goal per 60 the last 3 seasons, 1.995 last year, with shooting percentages >12% each of the past 3 seasons)

He is really good.

THIS. I am a ranger fan so alittle bias. But Mika is definitely deserving of the 93. He was on pace to shatter his career high. He is a elite two way forward.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

RATINGS SPREADSHEET UPDATE
The majority of the eastern conference is now complete. Making steady progress on the edits in-game as well.

[TopSide83]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

RATINGS SPREADSHEET UPDATE
The majority of the eastern conference is now complete. Making steady progress on the edits in-game as well.

How do you go about getting players speed ratings? So far everything looks to pass the eye test.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

How do you go about getting players speed ratings? So far everything looks to pass the eye test.

Speed ratings are calculated using rush chances, penalty differential (penalties drawn - penalties taken), expected goals, and height and weight.

[Travolterjohn]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

I am a bit confused. Is this Roster now for NHL 21 or NHL 20 ? Simple question .... can I transfer my own NHL 20 Roster to NHL 21 with Savewizard ? Thx

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

I am a bit confused. Is this Roster now for NHL 21 or NHL 20 ? Simple question .... can I transfer my own NHL 20 Roster to NHL 21 with Savewizard ? Thx

This is for NHL 21

No, you can't transfer a roster from NHL 20 to NHL 21.

[TopThrillAnthony]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

I don't think you're appreciating how good he really is.
-He's an excellent skater (13 rush chances last year, +10 penalties drawn to taken ratio at 5 on 5)

-He drives play really well (+4.5, +3.4, +7.4 in relative corsi at 5-on-5 the past 3 seasons, despite starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone 2 of those 3 years). He also had a positive corsi (50.3%) despite playing on a bad Rangers squad that :
-played against the 2nd easiest schedule in the NHL, but had a negative corsi rating (46.8%)
-was 24th in the league at preventing goals. The only reason they weren't worse is because of good goalie play, especially at 5-on-5 where they had a save percentage of .926, compared to the .924 NHL average).


-He is an effective hitter (at least a hit per game 2 of the last 3 seasons)

-He's always on the ice (21.6 minutes per game last year, 20.5 in 2018-19, and he's a forward)

-He plays against the most difficult competition (>50% of starts in the defensive zone the past 2 seasons, 54% last year)

-He kills penalties (2.62 minutes on the PK per game this year, 1.98 last year). He led all Rangers forwards in PK time per game last season. Only Marc Staal was on the ice in penalty killing situations more. AND he had a positive relative corsi on the PK last year (+4.3), which is best on the team for skaters logging more than 2 minutes of PK time per game.

-He is an excellent scorer (>1 goal per 60 the last 3 seasons, 1.995 last year, with shooting percentages >12% each of the past 3 seasons)

He is really good.

Well then. Poggers.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

Well then. Poggers.

His progress from his Ottawa days has been unreal.

[TopThrillAnthony]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

His progress from his Ottawa days has been unreal.

I didn't think that I, a Rangers fan, who's favorite player is Zibanejad, could possibly underrate Zibanejad. But I'm glad I am.

Anywho, I have a genuine question. I started re-doing the Bruins roster with your numbers and noticed that grinders do not have calculated digits, but instead nice, clean numbers, more often than other players. This is especially evident in the shot category. What goes on behind the scenes with grinders?

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

I didn't think that I, a Rangers fan, who's favorite player is Zibanejad, could possibly underrate Zibanejad. But I'm glad I am.

Anywho, I have a genuine question. I started re-doing the Bruins roster with your numbers and noticed that grinders do not have calculated digits, but instead nice, clean numbers, more often than other players. This is especially evident in the shot category. What goes on behind the scenes with grinders?

There are two sets of ratings: the "raw" ratings and the final ratings. As those ratings are adjusted, they may retain the even numbers. However, the reverse can also happenn.

For example, here are Par Lindholm's raw ratings, with final ratings in brackets (if only one number, the raw and final are the same):
Speed 70 (72.5)
Body Checking 72.41 (79.41)
Endurance 76.02
Puck Control 77 (80.5)
Passing 70 (86)
Slap Shot Power 80 (84)
Slap Shot Accuracy 70 (83)
Wrist Shot Power 80 (85)
Wrist Shot Accuracy 70 (85)
Agility 74 (81)
Strength 72.41 (79.41)
Acceleration 71.46 (78.46)
Balance 77 (84)
Faceoffs 82.09
Durability 70
Deking 73.5 (77)
Aggressiveness 75 (85)
Poise 85
Hand-Eye 70 (79.55)
Shot Blocking 91.497 (85)
Offensive Awareness 77 (84)
Defensive Awareness 70.96 (80)
Discipline 85.72
Fighting 60
Stick Checking 73 (80)
Overall 64 (77)

When I started this project a few years ago, I used the raw ratings as they were, to really increase the spread between players. However, this was a disaster and changed my philosophy. Instead of working against EA's rating system, I decided that it was essential to work with it. So, I put a system in place to adjust the raw ratings.

[oosterbe]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

When I started this project a few years ago, I used the raw ratings as they were, to really increase the spread between players. However, this was a disaster and changed my philosophy. Instead of working against EA's rating system, I decided that it was essential to work with it. So, I put a system in place to adjust the raw ratings.

Thanks for sharing your project, I am really interested to follow your work with rosters. I guess I will pick some of your ideas for my roster set too when yours and mine I ready. I'd like to know why it was a disaster? I guess it was hard to use your ratings with franchise mode? Or did the exact numbers ruin the overall ratings? If I have understood right, there are some attributes which add weight to some other values like strength gives bonus for balance and hitting power.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: NHL 21

Thanks for sharing your project, I am really interested to follow your work with rosters. I guess I will pick some of your ideas for my roster set too when yours and mine I ready. I'd like to know why it was a disaster? I guess it was hard to use your ratings with franchise mode? Or did the exact numbers ruin the overall ratings? If I have understood right, there are some attributes which add weight to some other values like strength gives bonus for balance and hitting power.

Yes, it was a disaster because such a drastic OVR spread works against the built in CPU logic. So, you ended up with low salaries and the AI did not know how to value most of its players. This also did not show good results in the sim engine.

Working with EA's system, rather than against it, has allowed me to create rosters that provide excellent gameplay, realistic sim stats and a more accurate valuation of players by the AI.

To put it simply, under the original system, you maybe would have been able to play a year of franchise, but that's it. Under the current system, you can play 25 seamlessly.