[CWood2]

Quote: Originally Posted by Misfit

I would say Schmidt and Dye didn't pan out as expected. Schmidt had two really good years in 2003 and 2004 but other than that he hasn't been great. And Dye has never been that great either (just three seasons with an OPS over .800), though that is a little unfair to him considering he had that major injury a few years ago with Oakland. My gut feeling is that Marte is going to be another Adrian Beltre. I wouldn't mind trading him for Crisp and either Arroyo or Clement (or Wells, but I don't think he wants to pitch for Cleveland) with him for the simple fact that the Red Sox need to get rid of some starters anyways. And Crisp is only 26 (won't be 27 until November) so he's almost a prospect in himself. I don't even consider Reed or Michaels worth exploring, I'd almost rather see what Stern can do given that scenario. I know everyone in Boston is excited about the sudden surplus of A prospects in the Red Sox system, but the likelihood even 3 of them turn out as good as projected is very slim. I remember reading an article not too long ago that was written a few years ago about the Red Sox farm system and their top 10 "can't miss" prospects. Of them, only Casey Fossum is even average at the major league level (I believe Brian Rose was the top prospect). Personally, the only guy I consider even close to untouchable is Lester, because he's a tall lefty with a power arm which isn't easy to find. And if someone offered a proven ace/slugger (depending on position) for him I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

Good post. Two things I disagree with though...

First, we don't need to get rid of starters due to a surplus, especially when packaged with our top prospect. We'll trade one to fill a need in center, but if there's any position you need to depend on, it's pitchers of all trades. If Hanley, Anibal, and some hard throwers got us Beckett, I don't think it should take another top prospect and a proven pitcher to get Crisp.

Second, the reason our top 10 prospects didn't pan out was because the quality of our farm system was close to the league worst just 3 years ago. The last "can't miss" guys we had before recently were Nomar and Trot, and that was a while ago. Personally, I believe the Braves have the best scouts and the most concrete system intact for acquiring young talent and maturing them through their own ranks. Because of that, and because they know there are very few guys you can build on (Andruw, Chipper, Franceour, etc.), they can give up Bruce Chen, Adam Wainwright, Bubba Nelson, Jung Bong, Ryan Klesko, and the people we brought up earlier (all top prospects at one time) and look brilliant. However, I don't think Marte will join that list...he was blocked by a clause in Chipper's contract and even after receding a bit with a bad pro debut, it's impossible to find top young corner infielders with pop. That's why I wouldn't trade him, but it's not like we're getting Julio Lugo back in return.