The Caps love playing in big games (see their record vs. Boston, NJ, Pitt, and to a lesser extent Philly), but their goaltending is obviously iffy (when Theodore is on, he's fantastic) and their defense is soft and terrible.
My optimism stems from a couple reasons:
1)It's essentially last year's team, minus Huet, who wasn't that great in the Philly series anyways.
2) The team has much more experience and is healthier going in (no nagging injury to Ovechkin, Green, and others)
3) Players like Fleischmann and Fehr have been huge players this year and Green is a better overall defenseman.
4) We're not worn down from being forced to win 15 of the last 17 games.
If we don't win round 1 it's a failure, so as long as we do that I'm happy, because next year we can be a much better overall team. The Caps' future is freakin bright as hell (in his first season in North America, our 20-year old goaltender prospect is 4-0-1 in the NHL with like a 2.10 GAA and our best defenseman prospects are on the verge) so I'm pretty excited, the team just has to win one freakin' series this year. I think they can do a lot more damage, it just depends on how Theodore plays (he's been solid since Christmas) and which defense shows up.
If Poti can be as good as he was early on, if Schultz can become a tiny bit more physical, if Green can be smart, if Morrisonn keeps hitting, if Jurcina is consistent, and if Pothier can be stable, we COULD be in for a deep run.
A lot of ifs, though.