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The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

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Old 09-14-2009, 07:06 PM   #1
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The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Disclaimer: I had some difficulty in selecting a forum to put this in, but I figured it is more about Madden than actual football so I've placed it here; if that's taboo, I apologize.

Who else does this? I've set up a franchise with the latest roster update (I know, it's not wholly accurate) and I adjust the depth charts based on the inactive lists for each week.

Some preface....

Earlier this year, I used NHL 09 to make predictions that fell just shy of being wholly accurate for the Cup Finals. I blame that goof on my own interference in the "science" of EA Sports; the game froze and I had to restart it--prior to the reset, the Pens won, but the Wings won the second game, which was the one I went with as the prediction. The game was 6-0 prior to that prediction goof.

The precedent...

Every year since '04, EA has run Super Bowl simulations using the newest edition of Madden. The results...
  • 2004 - Patriots 23, Panthers 20 (Actual Score: Patriots 32, Panthers 29)
  • 2005 - Patriots 47, Eagles 31 (Actual score: Patriots 24, Eagles 21)
  • 2006 - Steelers 24, Seahawks 19 (Actual score: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10)
  • 2007 - Colts 38, Bears 27 (Actual score: Colts 29, Bears 17)
  • 2008- Patriots 38, Giants 30 (Actual score: Giants 17, Patriots 14)
  • 2009- Steelers 28, Cardinals 24 (Actual score: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_...owl_simulation

They say that Madden NFL 10 is the most authentic football game there ever has been, so I want to see how accurate it is.

Week 1
Prediction results: 10-6
Most accurate prediction: Dallas/Tampa Bay (1 point difference)

Madden: Steelers - 20, Titans - 10
Reality: Steelers - 13, Titans - 10 (OT)
CORRECT!

Madden: Ravens - 23, Chiefs - 9
Reality: Ravens - 38, Chiefs - 24
CORRECT!

Madden: Texans - 27, Jets - 24
Reality: Jets - 24, Texans - 7
INCORRECT!

Madden: Browns - 27, Vikings - 24
Reality: Vikings 34, Browns - 20
INCORRECT!

Madden: Panthers - 24, Eagles - 7
Reality: Eagles - 38, Panthers - 10
INCORRECT!

Madden: Jaguars - 28, Colts - 21
Reality: Colts - 14, Jaguars 12
INCORRECT!

Madden: Broncos - 20, Bengals - 17
Reality: Broncos 12, Bengals 7
CORRECT!

Madden: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 20
Reality: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 21
CORRECT!

Madden: Saints - 17, Lions - 7
Reality: Saints - 45, Lions 27
CORRECT!

Madden: Falcons - 31, Dolphins - 28 (OT)
Reality: Falcons 19, Dolphins - 7
CORRECT!

Madden: Seahawks - 22, Rams - 3
Reality: Seahawks 28, Rams - 0
CORRECT!

Madden: Giants - 20, Redskins - 13
Reality: Giants - 23, Redskins - 17
CORRECT!

Madden: Cardinals - 27, 49ers - 24 (OT)
Reality: 49ers - 20, Cardinals - 16
INCORRECT!

Madden: Bears - 23, Packers - 21
Reality: Packers 21, Bears 15
INCORRECT!

Madden: Patriots - 27, Bills - 3
Reality: Patriots - 25, Bills - 24
CORRECT!

Madden: Chargers - 20, Raiders - 13
Reality: Chargers - 24, Raiders - 20
CORRECT!

Thoughts? Suggestions to improve the accuracy of this great guessing game? The methodology behind the first week's sims was simple and I'm looking for some refinement: 15 minute quarters with a 15 second runoff on very slow with the difficulty (not sure how much of a difference this makes in simulated games) set to All-Madden. I'm looking into using some of the sliders schemes I've seen set up by people to get more realistic stats.

Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-27-2009 at 02:18 PM.
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Old 09-14-2009, 09:22 PM   #2
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I don't think the clock settings (such as Q length or runoff) make any difference in simulated games.
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Old 09-14-2009, 10:22 PM   #3
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...
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Old 09-15-2009, 03:09 PM   #4
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dienekes
Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...
Oh, I intend to keep at it. My only problem will be this upcoming weekend because I'm going to be out of town for three days. I haven't decided whether or not to sim the games before I leave or after the fact and do retrospective predictions. Doing the sims after I get back on Sunday night would be beneficial because I may not catch all of the last-minute inactives if I sim it before hand.

It went 10-6 in its first week so I'm hoping to at least get that for Week 2.
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Old 09-15-2009, 03:14 PM   #5
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Are you simming or CPU-vs.-CPU?
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Old 09-15-2009, 03:24 PM   #6
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Simming each game. I tried to go CPU v CPU and let it play out while I did other things, but the game I tested that for (Buffalo/New England) was absurd--the Patriots won 98-6. Any suggestions on how to prevent that?
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Old 09-20-2009, 11:50 PM   #7
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Week 2
Prediction results: 9-7
Most accurate prediction: Carolina/Atlanta (3 pt difference)

Madden: Oakland 23, Kansas City 18
Reality: Oakland 13, Kansas City 10
CORRECT!

Madden: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 28
Reality: Arizona 31, Jacksonville 17
CORRECT!

Madden: Minnesota 20, Detroit 13
Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13

CORRECT!

Madden: Green Bay 27, Cincinnati 10
Reality: Cincinnati 31, Green Bay 24

INCORRECT!

Madden: Tennessee 28, Houston 7
Reality: Houston 34, Tennessee 31

INCORRECT!
Madden: Washington 28, St Louis 21
Reality: Washington 9, St Louis 7

CORRECT!

Madden: Atlanta 26, Carolina 21
Reality: Atlanta 28, Carolina 20

CORRECT!

Madden: New England 20, New York Jets 13
Reality: New York Jets 16, New England 9

INCORRECT!

Madden: New Orleans 41, Philadelphia 24
Reality: New Orleans 48, Philadelphia 22

CORRECT!

Madden: San Francisco 24, Seattle 14
Reality: San Francisco 23, Seattle 10

CORRECT!

Madden: Tampa Bay 10, Buffalo 3
Reality: Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20

INCORRECT!

Madden: Denver 31, Cleveland 28
Reality: Denver 27, Cleveland 6

CORRECT!

Madden: San Diego 21, Baltimore 10
Reality: Baltimore 31, San Diego 26

INCORRECT!

Madden: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 13
Reality: Chicago 17, Pittsburgh 14

INCORRECT!

Madden: Dallas 30, New York Giants 10
Reality: New York Giants 33, Dallas 31

INCORRECT!

Madden: Indianapolis 33, Miami 13
Reality: Indianapolis 27, Miami 23
CORRECT!

Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-22-2009 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 09-21-2009, 07:19 AM   #8
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

Quote:
Originally Posted by alifeincomplete
Madden: Minnesota 10, Detroit 13
Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13[/font]
Typo or oversight? Shouldn't this be wrong?
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