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ERAs are too low in the sim engine

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Old 05-20-2019, 07:17 AM   #1
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ERAs are too low in the sim engine

An issue that has been present for quite awhile in this game (one that has received comparatively little attention), is that team ERAs in the sim engine are nearly half a run too low. Simming seasons with default rosters yields a league-wide average of somewhere near 3.80 when in reality it should be somewhere near 4.20.

There appears to be no remedy for this without inflating batting averages too high...that's the problem. The sim engine can closely reproduce offensive statistics like home runs, batting averages, etc...but for some reason the earned runs produced is too low. It would seem that the sim engine doesn't fully account for manufactured runs and productive outs like it should. Also, there are too few errors by default, and while errors lead to more unearned runs they also prolong innings and reduce pitchers' effectiveness.

Other things could play a minor role, like too few sacrifice flies...and so I conclude it must be a combination of factors. One thing I'm curious about is BA w/ RISP. Though it may take awhile, I'm going to total up these figures for the entire league and see what I get...if it's too low, then perhaps creating more of a clutch disparity between pitchers and hitters might serve some good without effecting overall offensive performance. However, I am skeptical that it would do any good. Half an earned run per game (per team, that is, which works out to nearly a run a game) is not an insignificant figure.

Unfortunate. I checked back in the forum and found a thread from 2009 where someone pointed this out. Wonder what that person would have said if you told him we'd still have this issue ten years later...?

Last edited by JTommy67; 05-20-2019 at 07:19 AM.
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Old 05-20-2019, 07:50 AM   #2
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

I agree with this completely. Just yesterday I was looking up the real life team ERA's and noticed the discrepancy between that and the team ERA's in my franchise. I just dont think this game is doing a good job at replicating how good offense is in today's game. People complained about the hitting and home runs being too easy last year, but I would say it was more in line with today's real life game.

I'd be curious to see your findings on RISP and any research on the line drive success rate as I feel that is probably significantly lower than it's real life counterpart. With the latest patch supposedly "correcting" the line drive success rate, from all that I've seen and a good majority on online forums (not here of course.....) are still finding the line drive success rate is out of whack.
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Old 05-20-2019, 08:29 AM   #3
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

Thanks for the response. Keep in mind I'm talking exclusively about the sim engine, which is different from the gameplay engine. While I wholly agree that line drive success rate, etc..are of interest to the overall experience, gameplay mechanics have no effect in the simmed games. If this were not the case we would see major fluctuations in simmed stats as they continue to tinker with the gameplay engine, but the problem has remained relatively static for ten years.

Offensive numbers are, for the most part, on par with real life data in the sim engine. (Or, at least, they are not off enough to account for nearly 1 less earned run per game between two teams). Something is missing from the simulator that is causing lower run production.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:20 AM   #4
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

What are your leagues fielding %'s? IRL they hang around .985 so not many errors happen in the real life game.

Why the fldg % is so high IRL is another topic I won't get into here.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:41 AM   #5
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

You are 100% right OP. Been like this for years, surprised it does not come up more often.
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Old 05-20-2019, 02:15 PM   #6
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

Omg half a run???!!! Call the fire department Martha, this one’s outta control! (Dont put it out with your boots Ted!)


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Old 05-20-2019, 02:57 PM   #7
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

Quote:
Originally Posted by 51shergie
Omg half a run???!!! Call the fire department Martha, this one’s outta control! (Dont put it out with your boots Ted!)
If we were playing 2k and their sims were short
30ppg would it be a big deal? Idk if you know how numbers work but that's about 1/8th of total runs scored
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Old 05-20-2019, 05:09 PM   #8
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Re: ERAs are too low in the sim engine

Quote:
Originally Posted by JHodges57
What are your leagues fielding %'s? IRL they hang around .985 so not many errors happen in the real life game.
Well, I am talking default rosters with no adjustments of any kind, so they're the same for me as anyone. However, thanks for pointing this out, because I just checked fielding percentages in a simmed season and, while they are still a couple of points too high, it's not off nearly as much as I recall when checking with previous versions.

So, scratch that off the list of possibilities.
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