The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[Lathum]

They overnight are going to shift to every story being about Biden or Trump dropping out of the race because of health, mental issues, legal issues, etc...

[bronconick]

All they have to do then is let them talk and record it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You say that as if that's a point of differentiation with Party A, culpable of aiding and abetting many other genocides over the years, to say nothing of offering a home for white supremacists, a leader who copies rhetoric from Hitler, and whatever Stephen Miller was up to in the White House.

I won't be voting for him either.

[GrantDawg]

I really can't see anything generating the excitement of a regular presidential campaign. Trump can say anything at this point, and still won't be crazier than anything he has already said. Biden could set himself on fire, and he still won't garner the attention of Trump. Really, it is mostly courtroom drama at this point that will be the ratings driver, and even that more and more looks like it will be pushed till after the election.

[SirFozzie]

The old GOP Mantra: "Government doesn't work, and we can fix it."

The new GOP Mantra: "Government doesn't work, and we're going to keep breaking it."

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The big sale here is that Haley is going to pull some kind d of miracle and pull such a huge number of independents that she can somehow win or make it close.

Well why wouldn't they? I mean, getting a fucking worthless two faced p.o.s. like Haley to be the November alternative to Biden is a wet dream for the lunatic left. They win either way.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I really can't see anything generating the excitement of a regular presidential campaign.

Don't underestimate how easy it is to manipulate the viewers of the "news" channels.

Both sides of the news spectrum will hype the "election for our national survival" aspect, both will portray their choice as fighting an uphill battle, both will fan whatever ember (much less flame) they can find in order to drive interest while trying to drive turnout.

I don't honestly know how anyone watches any of them at this point.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Well why wouldn't they? I mean, getting a fucking worthless two faced p.o.s. like Haley to be the November alternative to Biden is a wet dream for the lunatic left. They win either way.

Pretty much ever poll, for what it is worth, has Haley destroying Biden.

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah I don't think it's about 'they want Haley because Biden'll win' kind of thing for the media, I think they just want the drama and controversy of a competitive primary. It's rare that we don't get that for one side or the other, occasionally both.

[Kodos]

I'm actively considering not following the news at all until after the election.

[Ghost Econ]

Already there. It's just not worth it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm actively considering not following the news at all until after the election.

Let me know if you find a way to get rid of the commercials and mailers. It's going to be brutal.

[Lathum]

CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.

[Lathum]

dola- all these networks are trying to hard to make it seem like it could be close somehow. They are twisting themselves into a pretzel with ways it can happen.

[GrantDawg]

The people with the exit polls on Twitter doing the same thing. Lots of "she could win" vibes going.

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[RainMaker]

Even if she won (she won't), New Hampshire is a tiny, weird state that does not reflect the electorate all that much.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Even if she won (she won't), New Hampshire is a tiny, weird state that does not reflect the electorate all that much.

What a lot of them are saying, and I do not agree, is that if Haley wins NH it somehow will show the GOP Trump isn't invincible and she will pick up momentum and chance the tide.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Let me know if you find a way to get rid of the commercials and mailers. It's going to be brutal.

Yeah, coming from Michigan, I'm going to wish I lived off-Grid or something.

[Ksyrup]

If she gets within 15 points I'd be surprised. Not shocked since it's NH, but surprised. And agree that NH doesn't mean much for how the rest of the GOP will vote.

[RainMaker]

I don't think even Haley has delusions of winning the primary. She's just in it to be the "told you so" candidate if Trump loses. Puts her in a decent spot for 2028.

[GrantDawg]

Her winning New Hampshire would keep her in the money to keep running till South Carolina. If she pulled off an upset there (that is a fully open primary), it could snowball. More likely though is if she wins or comes close here, the MAGA people are going to become hyper-energized and she loses South Carolina even worse than she would have before. Iowa numbers were pretty low. A win here would guarantee huge MAGA turnout in South Carolina.

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[Lathum]

Shes toast. You can see it all over Kornakis face. I'm sure the higher ups are telling him not to point out the obvious but you can see it all over him.

[bronconick]

Wasserman called it at 7:20, the AP and NYT around 8.

[Lathum]

CNN just called it

[Lathum]

This sounds an awful lot like a concession speech from Haley

[GrantDawg]

Joe Biden won the Democratic Primary even though he wasn't on the ballot.

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[Lathum]

Trump taking a few shots at Chris Sununu and getting booed pretty badly for it.

[JPhillips]

She did better than I expected, but if she can't win in NH there's no plausible path forward. How long will her donors fund her vanity campaign?

[JPhillips]

dola

Voters are dumb and inexplicable.

One Trump voter to CNN on switching from RDS to Trump over the campaign: She liked DeSantis’s ideas, but “he wasn’t giving me so much the how.” All she heard was just “I’m going to.”
“I need to know the how, the when, the whys, and Donald Trump is giving me that,” she concludes.

— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) January 23, 2024

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.

That health care plan of his is gonna come any day now.

[Edward64]

Still rooting for you Nikki. Hope you stick it out at least through Feb 3.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

CNN interviewing a Trump supporter. Lady says she supports Trump because when he says he is going to do something he has a plan for doing it. The alternate reality these people live in is staggering.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

Voters are dumb and inexplicable.

One Trump voter to CNN on switching from RDS to Trump over the campaign: She liked DeSantis’s ideas, but “he wasn’t giving me so much the how.” All she heard was just “I’m going to.”
“I need to know the how, the when, the whys, and Donald Trump is giving me that,” she concludes.

— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) January 23, 2024

This is the idiot I was talking about above. Just total disconnect from reality.

[Ksyrup]

Notice the couple of things she left out - the "who's" and "what's."

If I'm reading between the lines, maybe she meant that perhaps DeSantis wasn't giving her as cruel and/or entertaining a list of "who's" and "what's" as Trump.

[Ghost Econ]

I like all the articles that say how this is Trump's party now. Like, has that not been obvious for a better part of a decade? If anything Haley outperformed expectations last night

[Ghost Econ]

That being said, I think there's a non-insignificant amount of Haley donors who are funding this on the miniscule .000001% chance she might push to the end to build enough of a brand for a third party run. I actually think Christie would have been the perfect person for that, but I think there are some hoping she'd risk career suicide (or real murder) to do it.

[QuikSand]

There's definitely an inner circle mentality who have been watching numbers closely for some time, and for whom the actual outcome amounts to just a minor refinement of built-in expectations. That's me, and many in this thread. Of course Trump won... perhaps by a shade less than I might have guessed, but of course he won.

My wife is one of the TONS of people, including many who are at least fairly politically engaged, who just aren't into data or deep dive news analysis. She sat on twitter well into the night night watching the incremental NH results come in, speculating how Haley might be able to get there... at 7% reporting then 18%, and 26% and so on, without end. I told her when Wasserman said "I've seen enough" that I had seen enough (and that I didn't care what the final margin was), but she was there 'til the bitter end thinking Trump could lose if only those last (100-x)% of the NH voters could come through.

And, I'll insist, she's neither a dummy nor an outlier. Actual events still really shape impressions, no matter how much as the data-embedded-class like us can't imagine that.

So, I'm predicting that the real determinant whether she continues won't be her desire to spend more time with the family, or her personal belief that she can still win, it will be... as it always is... money. And a loss in NH means the money will dry up. Her not even contesting Nevada is baked in for us, but will sound like news to others. She's toast, and I think it's honestly likely she lose funding to where she won't even be able to remain credibly active through her home state SC primary.

[QuikSand]

Superpayaseria Crystalroc will be on the ballot in Nevada.

[cuervo72]

I hope every black person in America understands that this is what Republicans and MAGA Trumpsters think of them. You aren't ever a full citizen or even a full person in their eyes. To them, everything you have, you were given by a woke white person, and it should be taken away. https://t.co/NRVj7Ox71R

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) January 24, 2024

[Kodos]

Jon Stewart is returning to host the Daily Show on Mondays through this election cycle. So that's good.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Superpayaseria Crystalroc will be on the ballot in Nevada.

Was Lord Buckethead not available?

[JPhillips]

Based on the decline in air incidents over the past 20 years, DEI has been an incredible success and we should all be thankful.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

That health care plan of his is gonna come any day now.

In fairness, Trump lists his health care plans on his site (you probably won't like the plans). Biden doesn't even bother with having an issues section anymore. Just selling dark Brandon coffee or whatever.

You can complain that Trump voters don't care about actual issues, but the Democrats aren't even pretending to care.

[RainMaker]

Not great news for Biden here. Curious to see what role RFK Jr plays with the youth vote and whether Biden's losses are going to Trump or end up with RFK Jr or just not voting at all.

2024 National GE, Among voters ages 18 to 29:

Biden 55% (+27)
Trump 28%

.@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, RV, 1/21-23https://t.co/L2UnFihtCw pic.twitter.com/KiGv03i5Qa

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 24, 2024

[Ghost Econ]

The poll oversampled people over 45 by 3-5% with that MOE favoring Biden almost 2 to 1.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

In fairness, Trump lists his health care plans on his site (you probably won't like the plans)..

Let's be honest, he likely had nothing to do with crafting these plans, someone else did and told his supporters would love him for it.

[Lathum]

NEW

Trump is threatening Nikki Haley donors, saying that anyone who’ll contribute to her campaign will be “permanently barred from the MAGA camp.” Good luck in the general election, Donny.

This comes as Haley has raised $1 million since last night, most of it from small donors pic.twitter.com/wPN18Cey6L

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) January 25, 2024

[Ghost Econ]

The Simpsons - No Homers Club - YouTube

[JPhillips]

It's just going to be so humiliating when Haley endorses Trump.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's just going to be so humiliating when Haley endorses Trump.

Would love it if she just drops out and doesn't endorse him, but she will likely kiss the ring anyway. between tim scott and her, not sure which has been more humiliated more. it would be great if both were out of SC politics along with graham

[JPhillips]

A young Trump supporter was kicked out of Trump's victory celebration after he posted a picture of himself and Alina Habba at the party.

Earlier that day Habba had told a judge she was sick and needed to take precautions after a covid exposure so the trial was postponed. I can't wait to hear what the judge says about this.