<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="700"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:22400;width:525pt" width="700"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:45.0pt" height="60"> <td class="xl67" style="height:45.0pt;width:525pt" height="60" width="700">First of all guys I am sorry, this is a ton of writing with pretty poor structure. I just kind of got started writing and I could not stop myself. I think there is some great info in this post however so please, give it a read and give me some feedback.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:60.0pt" height="80"> <td class="xl65" style="height:60.0pt;width:525pt" height="80" width="700">So I started doing some testing with things on this game in regards to Peak start/end; progression, regression, etc. And I want to share what I find with the community so I can get some input and maybe we can figure some things out. This is a massive issue with Auto generated classes and lots of classes made by users I have downloaded in the past and the only way it will be corrected is with awareness.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">Base 2k Roster Analysis</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">I went through and analyzed 2ks base rosters to see if I could find trends with players ages and overalls that could help decide with how fast or slow players should be regressing or progressing on this game.</td></tr><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"><td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td></tr><tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"><td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">I found that players that were 26 years old when you first boot up a MyLeague with the base rosters had the highest # of players 90OVR and up, 85OVR and up, & 80 OVR and up with 3, 8, and 13 players respectively.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">Of the 11 players rated 90+ on the game, 8 of them are between 25-28 years of age, 2 of them are 31, and 1 of them is 23.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">Of the 35 players rated 85+ on the game, 20 of them are between 25-28, 4 are younger than 25, and 11 are older than 28. (5 @ 31 yrs)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">This trend continues down to the 80+ OVR players where 35 of the 63 players are also in the 25-28 range.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:150.0pt" height="200"> <td class="xl65" style="height:150.0pt;width:525pt" height="200" width="700">Something else I noticed is that we have a nice trend between players ageing and players decreasing in OVR. Our "stars" of 90+ OVR should become our allstars of 85+ and then our starters of 80+ and then our backups of 75+ which makes a lot of sense when you look at the NBA. You can really apply this to any level of player. Guys that were all stars are going to regress to average starters or bench pieces. Average starters will regress to bench players. Bench players will be out of the league around age 32. We obviously have the outliers like Lebron, Dirk, KAT, A-Davis who mess some of this up, but for the most part Players should peak at 25-28 and then decrease for the rest of their career and generally retire in the 70-79 OVR zone depending on their original peak, age,and injuries, etc. Style of play should also come into play. Athletic players should decline earlier than skill based players because we all see what happens to guys who rely on atheltism heavily when they age. The guys who are still 80+ OVR in their mid 30s are the ones who have strong fundamental skill bases.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:105.0pt" height="140"> <td class="xl65" style="height:105.0pt;width:525pt" height="140" width="700">Now, while those players are regressing we should be having players progressing at almost identical rates to become those stars at the age of 25-28 while the stars of yesteryear become lower overall players. The trend I found in the 2k roster is not as apparent with progression as it was with regression; however, it is somewhat there. Prospects 75-79 generally become the 80+ players, 70-74 prospects generally become the 75+, etc. But that is generally obvious. Tons of players never do improve and tons of guys seem to get worse from the moment they step on the floor. (think a guy like Bargnani who improved a bit and then was out of the league before 30, or Tyreke Evans whose best statisical season was his rookie year)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:135.0pt" height="180"> <td class="xl65" style="height:135.0pt;width:525pt" height="180" width="700">As I said earlier, the big thing I found is that each section of players were at its highest at Age 26. Generally speaking , players peak somewhere in that 25-28 range, and then regress for the remainder of their career. Most player should have a peak start somewhere before they turn 28, and really peak end should almost never be any later than 30 other than in special cases like Lebron James or a guy like Kyle Korver who had his best season at like age 34 which would be hard to replicate in 2k. That doesn't make it the norm however, the norm is closer to a guy like Dwight Howard who went from an MVP candidate in his early-mid 20s to being "just" an all star at his 28th birthday. Other examples would be Rudy Gay, Carmelo, Al Jefferson, Tony Parker or Andre Igoudala. These are all players who peaked 85-92 range around age 27ish who ended up "falling off" as they approached and past 30. </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:180.0pt" height="240"> <td class="xl65" style="height:180.0pt;width:525pt" height="240" width="700">I know sometimes it hard to accept but the NBA is not an old-mans league. 73.61% of the 2k roster is under the age of 30 & only 8.74% is over the age of 33. The truth is father time comes and he hits hard. 18% of the league is between the ages of 19-22, 35% between 23-26, 27% between 27-30, with the remaining 19% 31 and up. This is also scewed towards older guys as there are missing players on the roster who are primarily younger dudes. Only 5 players are older than 32 and above an 80 in OVR (Gasol, Parker, Dirk, Randolph, & D-Wade). In my personal opinion, in 4 years time it will likely be around the same with guys like LBJ, CP3, & Aldridge being the ones. This cannot be accurately portrayed on 2k when players peak is ending at age 35. For context, in a simulated season in 2021, we have 9 guys above 80 which is almost doubled. (LBJ, CP3, Curry, Conley, Aldridge, LBJ, CP3, M. Gasol, & Millsap.). 14 guys were also above 75 OVR which is 6 more than the 2016 season but we were spot on (28 vs 30) in terms of guys higher than 70 OVR. This leads me to believe regression hits stars to slow and role players to fast. To conquer this, stars are going to need earlier peak ends than your average player does. </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">Test 1 - Peak End for 90+OVR superstars at 28, Progression & Regression at 50</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">I set Durant, Curry, Cousins, Thompson, Westbrook and Leonards peak end age to 28.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">All lost 1-2 points when they were 29</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Lost 2-3 Points when they were 30/31</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Regress 2-4 at age 32/33</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Thompson at 81 at age 31, 77 at 32, 73 at 33</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Durant at 82 at age 32, 79 at 33, 75 at 34</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Cousins at 81 at age 31, 77 at 32, 73 at 33</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Westbrook at 81 at age 32, 78 at 33, 75 at 34</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Leonard at 88 at age 31, 84 at 32</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Curry at 81 at age 33, 78 at 34, 75 at 35</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">This is all I have done for now but it looks like to me that Regression needs to be decreased ever so slightly. I like how the league is looking though with the age 28ish as the peak end. </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:60.0pt" height="80"> <td class="xl65" style="height:60.0pt;width:525pt" height="80" width="700">So I started doing some testing with things on this game in regards to Peak start/end; progression, regression, etc. And I want to share what I find with the community so I can get some input and maybe we can figure some things out. This is a massive issue with Auto generated classes and lots of classes made by users I have downloaded in the past and the only way it will be corrected is with awareness.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">Base 2k Roster Analysis</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">I went through and analyzed 2ks base rosters to see if I could find trends with players ages and overalls that could help decide with how fast or slow players should be regressing or progressing on this game.</td></tr><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"><td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td></tr><tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"><td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">I found that players that were 26 years old when you first boot up a MyLeague with the base rosters had the highest # of players 90OVR and up, 85OVR and up, & 80 OVR and up with 3, 8, and 13 players respectively.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">Of the 11 players rated 90+ on the game, 8 of them are between 25-28 years of age, 2 of them are 31, and 1 of them is 23.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">Of the 35 players rated 85+ on the game, 20 of them are between 25-28, 4 are younger than 25, and 11 are older than 28. (5 @ 31 yrs)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">This trend continues down to the 80+ OVR players where 35 of the 63 players are also in the 25-28 range.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:150.0pt" height="200"> <td class="xl65" style="height:150.0pt;width:525pt" height="200" width="700">Something else I noticed is that we have a nice trend between players ageing and players decreasing in OVR. Our "stars" of 90+ OVR should become our allstars of 85+ and then our starters of 80+ and then our backups of 75+ which makes a lot of sense when you look at the NBA. You can really apply this to any level of player. Guys that were all stars are going to regress to average starters or bench pieces. Average starters will regress to bench players. Bench players will be out of the league around age 32. We obviously have the outliers like Lebron, Dirk, KAT, A-Davis who mess some of this up, but for the most part Players should peak at 25-28 and then decrease for the rest of their career and generally retire in the 70-79 OVR zone depending on their original peak, age,and injuries, etc. Style of play should also come into play. Athletic players should decline earlier than skill based players because we all see what happens to guys who rely on atheltism heavily when they age. The guys who are still 80+ OVR in their mid 30s are the ones who have strong fundamental skill bases.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:105.0pt" height="140"> <td class="xl65" style="height:105.0pt;width:525pt" height="140" width="700">Now, while those players are regressing we should be having players progressing at almost identical rates to become those stars at the age of 25-28 while the stars of yesteryear become lower overall players. The trend I found in the 2k roster is not as apparent with progression as it was with regression; however, it is somewhat there. Prospects 75-79 generally become the 80+ players, 70-74 prospects generally become the 75+, etc. But that is generally obvious. Tons of players never do improve and tons of guys seem to get worse from the moment they step on the floor. (think a guy like Bargnani who improved a bit and then was out of the league before 30, or Tyreke Evans whose best statisical season was his rookie year)</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:135.0pt" height="180"> <td class="xl65" style="height:135.0pt;width:525pt" height="180" width="700">As I said earlier, the big thing I found is that each section of players were at its highest at Age 26. Generally speaking , players peak somewhere in that 25-28 range, and then regress for the remainder of their career. Most player should have a peak start somewhere before they turn 28, and really peak end should almost never be any later than 30 other than in special cases like Lebron James or a guy like Kyle Korver who had his best season at like age 34 which would be hard to replicate in 2k. That doesn't make it the norm however, the norm is closer to a guy like Dwight Howard who went from an MVP candidate in his early-mid 20s to being "just" an all star at his 28th birthday. Other examples would be Rudy Gay, Carmelo, Al Jefferson, Tony Parker or Andre Igoudala. These are all players who peaked 85-92 range around age 27ish who ended up "falling off" as they approached and past 30. </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:180.0pt" height="240"> <td class="xl65" style="height:180.0pt;width:525pt" height="240" width="700">I know sometimes it hard to accept but the NBA is not an old-mans league. 73.61% of the 2k roster is under the age of 30 & only 8.74% is over the age of 33. The truth is father time comes and he hits hard. 18% of the league is between the ages of 19-22, 35% between 23-26, 27% between 27-30, with the remaining 19% 31 and up. This is also scewed towards older guys as there are missing players on the roster who are primarily younger dudes. Only 5 players are older than 32 and above an 80 in OVR (Gasol, Parker, Dirk, Randolph, & D-Wade). In my personal opinion, in 4 years time it will likely be around the same with guys like LBJ, CP3, & Aldridge being the ones. This cannot be accurately portrayed on 2k when players peak is ending at age 35. For context, in a simulated season in 2021, we have 9 guys above 80 which is almost doubled. (LBJ, CP3, Curry, Conley, Aldridge, LBJ, CP3, M. Gasol, & Millsap.). 14 guys were also above 75 OVR which is 6 more than the 2016 season but we were spot on (28 vs 30) in terms of guys higher than 70 OVR. This leads me to believe regression hits stars to slow and role players to fast. To conquer this, stars are going to need earlier peak ends than your average player does. </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl66" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">Test 1 - Peak End for 90+OVR superstars at 28, Progression & Regression at 50</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:525pt" height="20" width="700">I set Durant, Curry, Cousins, Thompson, Westbrook and Leonards peak end age to 28.</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">All lost 1-2 points when they were 29</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Lost 2-3 Points when they were 30/31</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Regress 2-4 at age 32/33</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Thompson at 81 at age 31, 77 at 32, 73 at 33</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Durant at 82 at age 32, 79 at 33, 75 at 34</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Cousins at 81 at age 31, 77 at 32, 73 at 33</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Westbrook at 81 at age 32, 78 at 33, 75 at 34</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Leonard at 88 at age 31, 84 at 32</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">Curry at 81 at age 33, 78 at 34, 75 at 35</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:30.0pt" height="40"> <td class="xl65" style="height:30.0pt;width:525pt" height="40" width="700">This is all I have done for now but it looks like to me that Regression needs to be decreased ever so slightly. I like how the league is looking though with the age 28ish as the peak end. </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
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