Madden Sales Down 18% Y-o-Y in October

[RaychelSnr]

One more nugget from the Cowen and Company piece is that Madden sales are in fact down 18% year over year for the month of October:

Quote:

"Even with disappointments for NHL 11 and Medal of Honor, EA's software sales grew 17 percent year over year in October. EA Sports MMA sold 45,000 units, and the Madden NFL franchise is down 18 percent year over year."

If you recall, I predicted in a blog post back in late August ('Are Madden Sales Slipping?') that Madden sales would probably end up down even after initial reports showed the game's sales were up 12% back in August. But an 18% drop was far more than I ever expected, that's nearly a 1/5 cut in top-line revenue from one of EA's biggest franchises on a Y-o-Y basis. If the trend continues, Madden sales could end up down substantially with the all-important Winter Shopping Season approaching.

That's incredibly bad news.

There is a lot of speculation as to why sales have slowed so much so fast, but I believe the reasons are the same now as I initially thought back then: consumers aren't impressed with the direction of the Madden series with so many other options for them to partake in. The longevity of the game is definitely in question and the word of mouth factor seems to be non-existent this year.

This is easily a referendum on the direction of the direction of the series, especially if trends continue to hold through December. I initially thought there wouldn't be much panic from the suits at EA, but this was before the Elite Fiasco hit the world, so now you can never be too careful when trying to prognosticate what EA might do next.

No doubt the decision makers at EA know exactly about the slip in sales of the Madden franchise, which are slowing substantially moreso than previous years after being on store shelves. So whatever panic decisions/reshuffling you would expect have probably already been made in some regards, although some may not be made until the Christmas shopping season is over. There is definitely increasing pressure on the Madden team to perform, and if sales do come in flat to somewhat down there could be some changes to the gameplan going forward.

This is definitely not good news for gamers who have liked the direction of Madden for the past couple of years if this trend holds into the Christmas shopping season. Also just as alarming is Madden's shrinking sales to the hardcore gamers on the top platforms, with sales down between 30% and 40% depending on how you calculate game sales and from whom from it's high in the middle of the last decade.

This is an interesting story we'll continue to follow. In the meantime, do you think we'll see some big changes in the direction for Madden NFL 12?

[ Update ] It's not clear whether Cowen and Company's analyst was commenting on the entire sales volume from Aug-Oct or just in the Month of October. Either way, that would only slightly give the news a bit less negativity for EA -- but it'd still be very negative news. We'll keep on this story.

[ Update #2 ] After analyzing the data and receiving word from a few trusted analysts this is definitely a Monthly drop from last October of 18%. This means after Madden sales started out on a rush, they have plummeted as the product has stayed on store shelves. The real test will be the Christmas shopping season. Roughly 30% of Madden's sales come from Christmas-time sales. If sales are still down substantially in November and then December, things could get ugly for EA. As it is right now though, this is a sharp drop worth watching. Edited the original article to reflect these clarifications.

[ryan36]

I think EA will misinterpret this data. Sales are down because of the oversimplified high offense approach, and lack of realism...not because it's too complicated.

They'll try to make the only gameplay option one-button, and then wonder why sales are down again. The way to simplify the game is to make good AI so the user doesn't have to hot-route and audible to get the game to play well.

Or , alternatively, maybe they'll do what they should and start over. The reason sales are down isn't because new people aren't picking up Madden, it's because the faithful aren't. It's the only NFL game out there, if it's fun people will learn to play it. This year's game just felt unfinished to me because of the commentary. Maybe if we can get some more polish, that'll help.

If they try to cast a wider net, they'll fail.

[Senator Palmer]

There were many around here rooting for this scenario so that the game could return to sim roots. But I think that's too much to hope for. I think Ryan and MMChris are right, increasing market share means increasing gimmicks, not sim. Sim is probably viewed by marketing as "niche", which doesn't bring in new buyers. Niche isn't what you want out of a flagship franchise.

[ryan36]

They need to look at the Show and NBA 2k11...those titles are moving. They're sim. If they go arcade, they won't help things. I hope they realize this.

Besides, I thought Peter Moore was gonna "monetize" us by now? With this and NBA elite, and NHL 11 being disappointing...and NCAA being never enough to drive the sports division- is the board of directors gonna make a move? I think at some point, a change higher than Phil Frazier is coming.

[RGiles36]

Quote: Originally Posted by ryan36

If they try to cast a wider net, they'll fail.

Agreed.

I can see why EA tries to take this approach with Madden, and while the game has improved, it doesn't have a unified focus and it shows in the final product.

I've grown tired of comparing Madden to other sports games, but it seems games like NBA2K have a singular focus: to be the most authentic NBA game down to the very fine details. That includes gameplay, presentation, atmosphere, everything.

Madden tries to be everything to everybody, and while I see what they're attempting to do, no one is completely satisfied. It doesn't work.

[Dewie12]

Not making a PC version....I would have bought two versions.

Let's see EA abandon the PC market and cancelled a game and now are seeing low sales on their top flight game. I guess PC piracy is a real big deal......

EA is a dying monolith. Peter Moore where are you? FIFA comes out for the PC right?

[l3ulvl]

If they could manage getting the commentary/presentation to be anywhere near that of NBA 2K11 they'd make a huge stride in righting the ship. Also, I'm in favor of completely revamping the on field gameplay. Just give more real-physics collisions and fewer canned "suction" animations. Of course, none of this hasn't been mentioned before, but these are specifically what I'm rooting for.

[RGiles36]

Quote: Originally Posted by ryan36

They need to look at the Show and NBA 2k11...those titles are moving. They're sim. If they go arcade, they won't help things. I hope they realize this.

How many times does this need to be said though? Years ago, it was they need to look at 2K5. And from an immersive standpoint, they still can't hold a candle to this game. So they can look at these games all they want, but if they don't reorganize and focus their efforts, then it's not going to work.

The only issue is that if they re-focus their game on a specific segment of gamers, who do they cater to? The sim gamers or the casuals?