08-16-2014, 11:18 PM
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#108
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Rookie
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Originally Posted by CM Hooe |
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Passing numbers are obviously off. I was curious as to by how much.
The video scrolls through the top 19 QBs by yards. I wrote down their yards numbers, TD numbers, and INT numbers, and took the average. I then did the same for the 2013 NFL season. For the hell of it, I also looked at the 2004 NFL season, i.e. ten years ago.
2013 NFL avg (top 19 by yards): 4065 yards, 27 TDs, 15 INTs
2004 NFL avg (top 19 by yards): 3694 yards, 25 TDs, 14 INTs
this Madden sim (top 19 by yards): 3118 yards, 17 TDs, 13 INTs
So it's just low on everything it looks like, but yards and TDs are woefully off. There's 21% fewer yards, 35% fewer passing TDs, and 10% fewer INTs among league leaders compared to the average league leader in 2013, and 13% fewer yards, 31% fewer TDs, and 9% fewer INTs than 2004.
I went ahead and looked at rushing as well (this video scrolls through the top 12 RBs by yards):
2013 NFL avg (top 12 RBs by yards): 275 carries, 1236 yards, 9 TDs
2004 NFL avg (top 12 RBs by yards): 322 carries, 1412 yards, 10 TDs
this Madden sim (top 12 RBs by yards): 323 carries, 1335 yards, 8 TDs
Generally speaking, the rushing stats from this sim look in-line with the NFL, if the game was being played a decade ago. The CPU is running the ball with the top-rated backs about 20% more than real teams did in 2013. Also, there's a 400-carry back in this simulation; the NFL hasn't seen a RB with 400 carries since Larry Johnson in 2006, if I recall correctly.
While obviously we need more than one season's sim worth of data to draw any sort of conclusion, one might begin to assert that Madden's game simulation algorithm has not been updated to account for the de-emphasis on the running game and increase in proficiency of modern NFL passing offenses.
I would assume that this can be tuned to resemble the modern NFL to an extent. However, I do wonder by how much.
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This is a lot of math and research for something that might turn out to be insignificant, so thank you for calculating. Any chance you might try this using multiple simulations when the game comes out? I would be very interested in reading what you find.
Quick edit: I love how the community is analyzing everything. Much more constructive than i expected. I wonder if EA even has a small team of developers that look into this sort of thing, or if they've ever instructed their QA people to test this kind of thing specifically.
Last edited by BigMacAttack22; 08-16-2014 at 11:24 PM.
Reason: adding comments
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