sgibs7's Blog
Why You Should Never Punt in Madden NFL 13: The Chip Kelly Story
Posted on November 15, 2012 at 04:58 PM.
It sounds crazy but I think it is a possibility.
A recent article over at www.thepostgame.com explained why more NFL teams need to stash away their faith and stick to the Chip Kelly mathematical approach when it comes to play calling.
The most interesting thing about the article is how similar Chip Kelly and the #2 Oregon Ducks run their offense compared to how I play Madden NFL 13.
Most of Kelly's decisions are based around mathematical outcomes from a computer program, named Zues, that Chuck Bower and Frank Frigo invented. The idea is to always side with the statistical advantage when it comes to play calling. Should you punt if its 4th and inches on your own 47 yardline? Conventional wisdom would say yes but according to Zues there is a 99% chance you will convert that QB Sneak for the first down.
After reading the article I started thinking about my approach to Madden. I hardly punt. I squib kick the majority of the game to try and recover the ball for extra possessions, I run no huddle all game, and I’ll go for two instead of kicking the extra point.
Why? I think it has a lot to do with how Chip Kelly and the Oregon Ducks think about their offensive attack. Quickly and effectively throughout the course of a game I assess the situation and determine what I believe to be the best course of action to score touchdowns. Not field goals, touchdowns.
People always ask why I run no huddle so much. My answer has always been that it helps me stay in rhythm, it gives me a speed advantage over my opponent, and I am always thinking one or two plays ahead.
I will go for a 4th and 8 situation, with the ball on my own 30 because statistically speaking it’s the right decision based on my per play average.
Currently in the MaddenTips.com Online XBOX 360 community you can see a breakdown of my Points Per Game, Pass Yards For, Rush Yards For, as well as a few other statistical breakdowns. They are as follows…
Points Per Game – 42
Plays Per Game - 45
Pass Yards For – 320
Rush Yards For – 47
Number of Pass Plays – 35 (based on own findings)
Number of Run Plays – 10 (based on own findings)
Now lets take a look at per play averages for each situation.
Points Per Play - 0.93
Yards Per Pass – 9.0
Yards Per Run - 4.7
I have always taken this into consideration but never actually did the math to figure out the breakdowns. I simply “knew” that I could get a first down in many situations based on my expertise at the game.
Now with the actual stats backing it up I feel more confident then ever that going for it on 4th and whatever seems to be the overall right call in many situations.
Chip Kelly and the Oregon Ducks are changing the way Football will be played forever which will finally allow them to catch up to the rest of Madden Tip Nation.
For more information on the Oregon Ducks and the Chip Kelly Offense check out this article by SmartFootballs Chris Brown.
Do you believe in momentum? Why do NFL Coaches punt? Is it psychological? Let us know in the comments below!
# 2
bccards13 @ Nov 15
I agree with the above post and, Chip Kelley runs a spread offense with an emphasis on fast skill players. In the NFL quarterbacks can't all run a 4.5 40 and cornerbacks are much more skilled at stopping short passes.
You don't need all of that math to simply look at the facts. Chip Kelley coaches a college team, and we're suggesting NFL teams adopt his system.
This is just like a person saying, "I run the flexbone to perfection in NCAA Football. I average 55 points per game, and I'm 72-3. Why don't more teams use flexbone?!"
You don't need all of that math to simply look at the facts. Chip Kelley coaches a college team, and we're suggesting NFL teams adopt his system.
This is just like a person saying, "I run the flexbone to perfection in NCAA Football. I average 55 points per game, and I'm 72-3. Why don't more teams use flexbone?!"
# 3
Valdarez @ Nov 16
You can't compare what you're doing in the game to what is going on in a real football game. It's apple and oranges. You squib/onside kick because the football game you're playing is limited in time, and odds are against a good opponent, they are going to score anyhow, so any chance you have of limiting their chance to score is a plus which isn't the case in real NFL.
You run no huddle when you find a play that work to make use of it over and over again, especially against an opponent who doesn't have good audibles set up and can't cover the play well. Lots of players would call that cheeze (ughhh), but it's something that rarely would work in a NFL game as the guys on the field would react to solve the problem (especially in a passing situation where a guy got burned).
So while you're trying to use the Chip Kelly rule to justify your play style (and don't get me wrong, from a pure video game stand point what you're doing is definitely what needs to be done to 'win'), it's definitely not reflective of what you'd see on the field for any NFL team. Ever.
You run no huddle when you find a play that work to make use of it over and over again, especially against an opponent who doesn't have good audibles set up and can't cover the play well. Lots of players would call that cheeze (ughhh), but it's something that rarely would work in a NFL game as the guys on the field would react to solve the problem (especially in a passing situation where a guy got burned).
So while you're trying to use the Chip Kelly rule to justify your play style (and don't get me wrong, from a pure video game stand point what you're doing is definitely what needs to be done to 'win'), it's definitely not reflective of what you'd see on the field for any NFL team. Ever.
# 4
cgalligan @ Nov 16
Things that "work" in College don't tend to work for very long, if at all in the NFL...
Its pretty simple really... Even the best College team might have 5 or 6 legit NFL Players on their roster... In the NFL there are 53 NFL Players on every single roster... That 4th and 1 QB Sneak in College that works 99% of the time, will NOT work like that in the NFL...
NFCastle said it right, you can't simply run slants and drags and get 1st downs any time you want in the NFL... NFL Teams have NFL Defenses that can stop the opposing Offense, outside of the SEC, that isn't the case in College which is why most NFL Coaches play it safe, and take the points when they are there (ie FG from the 30)...
Its pretty simple really... Even the best College team might have 5 or 6 legit NFL Players on their roster... In the NFL there are 53 NFL Players on every single roster... That 4th and 1 QB Sneak in College that works 99% of the time, will NOT work like that in the NFL...
NFCastle said it right, you can't simply run slants and drags and get 1st downs any time you want in the NFL... NFL Teams have NFL Defenses that can stop the opposing Offense, outside of the SEC, that isn't the case in College which is why most NFL Coaches play it safe, and take the points when they are there (ie FG from the 30)...
# 6
Bmore Irish @ Nov 17
the odds are in your favor, but its a video game, not real football, thus playing sim is essential to achieving the closest to realism as you can get
# 7
Jimbo614 @ Nov 17
On Nick Saban's Friday Fireside Chat on Sirius; Saban talked specifically about how Chip Kelly has changed Football, and how other teams, I.E. Alabama needs to adjust their thinking. Playing the way Alabama plays is quickly becoming a thing of the past. The future is going to be the way Oregon plays, Onside Kicks, No Huddle, Quick Reads, tempo tempo tempo.It's thinking more along the lines of Basketball, using space and tempo rather than just force. And we all better get used to it, or get out of the game before they RUN you out of the game.
# 8
cusefan74 @ Nov 17
I agree totally.
If you can't make it on 3rd and long what makes you think your gonna make it on 4th down. 4th and inches at your on 47, yeah I'm going for it, I always do. 4th and 8 from my 47, I'm punting. I would rather them have to go 70 or 80 yards on a drive then 47, or maybe just 10 for a field goal.
You will never convince me that you are gonna make 4th down more then you won't make it. Unless it's 3 yards or less, at least in real life.
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If you can't make it on 3rd and long what makes you think your gonna make it on 4th down. 4th and inches at your on 47, yeah I'm going for it, I always do. 4th and 8 from my 47, I'm punting. I would rather them have to go 70 or 80 yards on a drive then 47, or maybe just 10 for a field goal.
You will never convince me that you are gonna make 4th down more then you won't make it. Unless it's 3 yards or less, at least in real life.
# 9
tril @ Nov 17
you can not compare the college game to the nfl game at all.
and most of us know that if we went for it on 4th down every time in a amdded game we'd probbaly convert the majority of time. But most of us want that sim experience. so we'll punt on 4th down when the ball is on our own side of teh field etc.
sorry tosay this but what you're doing in MAdden IMO is called cheesing. not knocking your brand of Madden football, but I dont and probably will ver play by those rules, unless its warrented. as in if IM losing and tiem is running out etc..
and most of us know that if we went for it on 4th down every time in a amdded game we'd probbaly convert the majority of time. But most of us want that sim experience. so we'll punt on 4th down when the ball is on our own side of teh field etc.
sorry tosay this but what you're doing in MAdden IMO is called cheesing. not knocking your brand of Madden football, but I dont and probably will ver play by those rules, unless its warrented. as in if IM losing and tiem is running out etc..
# 10
tril @ Nov 17
you can not compare the college game to the nfl game at all.
and most of us know that if we went for it on 4th down every time in a MAdden game we'd probably convert the majority of time. But most of us want that sim experience. so we'll punt on 4th down when the ball is on our own side of the field etc.
sorry to say this but what you're doing in Madden IMO is called cheesing. not knocking your brand of Madden football, but I dont and probably will never play by those rules, unless its warrented. as in if I'm losing and time is running out etc..
and most of us know that if we went for it on 4th down every time in a MAdden game we'd probably convert the majority of time. But most of us want that sim experience. so we'll punt on 4th down when the ball is on our own side of the field etc.
sorry to say this but what you're doing in Madden IMO is called cheesing. not knocking your brand of Madden football, but I dont and probably will never play by those rules, unless its warrented. as in if I'm losing and time is running out etc..
# 11
Raw Energy @ Nov 17
I would love to play you on XBL a few times to prove that your theory is wrong. I play sim like people do in real life football i only go for it on 4th if its desperate situation. 95% of time I will Punt even on 4th and inches unless i'm bottom of 3rd quarter or 4th quarter. However I tend to run the no huddle offense from time to time with my lions to help if i don't have a rythym with the vertical offense. It's most effective if i have at least 3 WR's on field and properly read the defense. However since I have Megatron I can abuse him all day on every play but I try not to as much as possible. I use him in Emergency situations when my other players playing like trash or dropping to many balls. A quick slant to 81 is good 5+ yards depending on defense being played and protection I have to wait for him to clear zone instead of having to anticipate the route.
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Real life football is not a video game where you can run slants all day, or take advantage of poor computer AI.
If you're in a 4th and 8 situation, don't tell me that it's a statistical probability that you'll convert it because guess what, that means in your previous 3 plays, you got a total of 2 yards which I'm sure isn't what you'd expect based on a fancy little formula.
Long story short, this crap works in video games, not real life football. A 4th and 1-2 around midfield, or in opponents territory is a different story, but you don't go for a 4th and long on your own end of the field...just no...