Some Combine Numbers

[Lucky Jim]

Since I've seen a couple threads pop up lately about combine scores I thought I'd post some of the info I've been using to evaluate the numbers we have to look at in the draft screen. I figure since no one really comes in here there won't be any problems with people who don't want to share their "secrets" with MP opponents. Hopefully we can share observations and learn some things without spoiling anything for people that don't want to know.

Ok, essentially I did a breakdown by position of each of the combine categories. I tried to get a general range for each score. Essentially a range where distribution seemed logical and somewhat flowing. Then I tried to find an average number, more of a number that seemed to have a dense clustering of prospects, a number that would assumedly be the peak point of a bell shaped distribution. In many cases the number isn't really an average but a mode, but in any case it's a fairly good bar of what an "average" prospect would do. The ranges are by no means all-inclusive. There will probably be a couple players in each position group that exceed the ranges one way or the other, the ranges are meant to help identify these players that seem to be outside of the regular distribution or on its fringes.

I don't have a lot of concrete analysis to go along with these numbers, but what I do have I'll offer after listing the info.

I'll start by establishing the highest scores I've seen in looking at some fifty or so drafts.

Dash
The fastest draft eligible player I've ever seen was a 4.26 WR. I've seen a veteran player run a 4.25 in the Fastest Man screen, so conceivably a prospect could run 4.25, but 4.26 is the best I've seen. Essentially anything better than 4.4 is very good. Only a handful of draftees will crack 4.4. Most drafts will have at least a couple, or just one, player in the 4.3 range. Some drafts will have a player that breaks 4.3 but these guys are rare. I've seen a draft with 3 guys running 4.2something, but I've seen as many five consecutive drafts without a 4.2 runner as well. It seems that WR's and CB's are the players capable of breaking 4.3. I've seen an RB at 4.31, and QB, RB, OLB, and S seem to be able to run in the 4.3 range.

Sole
The highest score I've ever seen is a 57. I've seen a Safety and a QB put up 57. A couple OLineman seem to break 50 in most drafts. 55 or above is extremely rare however.

Strg
The highest I've seen for a draft eligible player is 47, but again, I've seen veterans put up 48 on the Strongest Man screen, so 48 may be possible. 47 is rare but you'll see it a number of times, T's and G's seem to be the positions that can hit 47. DT's and DE's seem to max at 45.

Agil
6.72 is the best I've seen. I've seen it a few times, CB's and WR's, but I've never seen better. 6.7 seems to be about the same as a 4.2 dash as far as rarity, although it does seem like I see a few more 6.7's.

Here are the breakdowns by position

QB
Dash
4.5 - 5.2 range
4.74 - 4.86 avg (the other avgs are a little more precise)

Sole
12 - 40
28 avg

Strg
6 - 15
10 avg

Agil
7.3 - 8.2
7.8 avg

RB
4.5 - 4.9
4.75 avg

8-34 Sole
21-22 avg

9-20 Strg
14 avg

7.1 - 7.7
7.35 avg

FB
4.6 - 5
4.8 avg

12 - 36 Sole
22-23 avg

14-27 Strg
18-21 avg

7.2 - 8
7.5 avg

TE
4.7 - 5.2
4.96 avg

12 - 35 Sole
24 avg

15 - 27 Strg
22 avg

7.2 - 8.5
7.75 avg

WR
4.4 - 4.8
4.51 avg

9 - 35 Sole
22-23 avg

5 - 20 Strg
11 avg

6.8 - 7.6
7.2 avg

C
5 - 5.5
5.22 avg

13 - 41 Sole
26 avg

17 - 33 Strg
27 avg

7.7 - 8.4
7.96 avg

G
4.9 - 5.5
5.12 avg

12 - 50 Sole
28 avg

21 - 35 Strg
26-27 avg

7.6 - 8.5
7.9 avg

T
5 - 5.6
5.27 avg

10 - 48 Sole
29-30 avg

19 - 35 Strg
25 avg

7.45 - 8.4
7.8 avg

DE
4.7 - 5.15
4.92 avg

12 - 35 Sole
24-26 avg

18 - 35 Strg
27 avg

7.1 - 8.2
7.75

DT
4.9 - 5.4
5.07 avg

10 - 33 Sole
20-22 avg

21 -34 Strg
26-28 avg

7.4 - 8.5
7.8 avg

ILB
4.7 - 5.1
4.82 avg

18 - 35 Sole
27 avg (24 and 31 seemed to be cluster points)

14 - 27 Strg
21 avg

7.3 - 8.1
7.53 - 7.6 avg

OLB
4.5 - 4.95
4.71 avg

12 - 39 Sole
26 avg

10 - 24 Strg
18 avg

7.1 - 7.8
7.4 avg

CB
4.4 - 4.7
4.51 avg

9 - 32 Sole
25 avg

6 - 14 Strg
11-12 avg

6.9 - 7.6
7.2

S
4.45 - 4.85
4.58 avg

12 - 40 Sole
29 - 32 avg

9 - 20 Strg
15 avg

7 - 7.8
7.35 avg

Alright, I'll give some brief info in a new post.

[Lucky Jim]

Essentially the only analysis I'll offer quickly right now is that using these numbers it's a lot easier to spot players in the 3rd and 4th rounds that have more potential than they seem. Guys that your scout rates in that 40-55 range that have seemingly breakout combine numbers are worth a look here. Volatility or no volatility they are often better than they appear. I would especially note players at weak positions (CB or WR namely) that put up a big strength score. A CB that puts up a 20 strength number seems to be a good bet in my experience. I haven't found any surefire signs, which is good, but there are trends. Using the strength scores to see if a player may be undervalued in blocking or pass rush strength is also useful. I've got a few more ideas, but I'd rather hear if anybody else has anything to add, or something they'd edit. I'm open to suggestion. I think there is a lot to talk about in the draft.

[RPI-Fan]

Thanks a bunch for the info! Hopefully this will get the ball rolling on these kinds of discussions... I'm debating whether or not to put up some (what I consider), hard and very concrete data as to drafting OL - it's told me a lot about the theory of combine numbers.

[RPI-Fan]

Here goes nothing...

Name	Pos	Current	Future	Percent	RunB	PassB	BlkStr	Endur	Reps	Agil	40		PostCurr	ChangeCurr	PostFut	ChangeFut	PostRunBlk	PostPassBlk	PostBlkStr	PostEnd
Christian Lockhart	LG	36	92	39.1	73-100	73-100	73-100	73-100	43	7.45	4.85		36	0	91	-1	21/100	17/86	84	79/98
Nate Gaylor	RT	48	72	66.7	73-100	33-55	73-100	73-100	42	7.6	4.97		52	4	73	1	52/93	33/48	88	82/94
Austin Collier	LT	29	76	38.2	72-99	57-82	58-83	71-98	34	7.59	5.04		35	6	76	0	29/87	21/70	68	73/84
Glen Marsh	LG	42	73	57.5	55-80	55-80	73-100	73-100	44	7.68	4.95		43	1	75	2	30/68	27/68	96	61/98
Lewis Franz	C	34	71	47.9	73-100	71-98	46-73	18-45	30	7.78	5.12		37	3	67	-4	34/73	38/76	60	7/26
Rodney Barnes	RG	17	69	24.6	52-79	55-81	49-76	60-85	34	7.74	5.08		18	1	64	-5	2/62	4/66	70	39/60
Joey Goss	LT	14	60	23.3	54-80	56-84	33-57	40-65	32	7.66	5.34		17	3	54	-6	6/51	17/66	39	17/40
O.J. Edmunds	LG	22	65	33.8	41-63	73-100	32-57	73-100	31	7.44	5.02		26	4	67	2	12/48	18/93	48	76/87

If you'll notice, my conclusion is that the numbers give you a very good indication where in the range of a skill the player will fall. Also, more importantly, (for OL and DL, at least), each combine score has a direct effect on one and only one rating.

Thoughts?

[Eaglesfan27]

I find this analysis very interesting.. unfortunately I haven't done enough good analysis to add much to this discussion.

[fantastic flying froggies]

How do you guys extract that info from the draft view screen ? Is there any way to export to excel or such ? other than manually I mean ?

If it's possible to do that, I'll be running a bunch of statistical tests...

[Lucky Jim]

RPI,

Yeah it seems clear just going through that for OLineman dash is tied to Run Blocking, Agil to Pass Blocking, and Strg to Blocking Strength. It's not really concrete or simplistic beyond that there seems to be a relationship there though. I like to go through and sort by the categories and if it looks like a guy is scouted well below what his agility score might imply for his pass blocking, then you have to look at other things. If a guy like this has high volatility as well then I see that as a point in his favor. Then I take a look at his other scores. Sometimes a guy like this will have something like a 20 for Strg, which has been a good sign for me that the lower pass blocking score is probably in line with where this guy is at. Players that seem to be under-valued looking at one combine score often have a very poor score in one of the other categories. This has been a consistent sign to trust my scout. But if the guy has other fairly average scores, or good scores, they usually end up being better than advertised.

FFF,
I did my analysis manually. If you break it down by position, just looking at a few drafts, not crunching any numbers, the info posted above will more or less jump out at you. I have an excel where I've been tracking a lot of these things, but it's been less than an intensive exploration of the stats and more casual trend finding. If you can find an easier way, I think those tests would be interesting.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Lucky Jim

I figure since no one really comes in here there won't be any problems with people who don't want to share their "secrets" with MP opponents.

LOL. Lots of guys are DYING to get this info. They check it, but don't post. You already have close to 100 views of this thread. I'll just say that my experience matches up with most of what has been said in this thread. I guess it is time for me to write a drafting/rookie free agent strategy guide and give away all my "secrets," since most are out there now anyway.

[Lucky Jim]

I would be DYING to read that

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Lucky Jim

I would be DYING to read that

I started working on it earlier, but then I saw digamma's thread thanking me, and then wrote a friggin' short story in response. I should have something in the next day or two.

Be prepared: this thing is gonna be long.

[Franklinnoble]

Awesome. This is the kind of information I've been waiting for for a long time.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I started working on it earlier, but then I saw digamma's thread thanking me, and then wrote a friggin' short story in response. I should have something in the next day or two.

Be prepared: this thing is gonna be long.

Coming along nicely, and now I have some "credentials" . Someone is writing a utility, and applied it to my first five seasons of my current career. I am counting 33 guys who started with me during that time that changed in potential ratings. 25 of them had an increase, while only 8 had a decrease.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by fantastic flying froggies

How do you guys extract that info from the draft view screen ? Is there any way to export to excel or such ? other than manually I mean ?

If it's possible to do that, I'll be running a bunch of statistical tests...

http://home.nc.rr.com/gstelmack/

Look for FOF Extractor. It won't do all the multi-season statistical comparisons that SkyDog has been looking for, but it will give you detailed breakdowns for every attribute that is displayable.

[stevew]

Well thank you all for this baseline info. Because of this, I've already grabbed a breakout 4th rounder in my MP league. QB Nate Duncan, was drafted 4(25) with skills of roughly 19/49. After he hit my roster he dropped to 19/43. I was like damn, this sucks.

His combine Numbers
40yd tine 4.59
Bench Press 12
Agility 7.66
Solecismic 36

He is now listed as 34/66 going into secondary FA. Now while its possible he could drop, Id say its just as likely he could blow up more. His VOL is 80. The one thing that tipped me off that he may be pretty good was that he knew a TON of formations for a rookie(11). Most I know are like 6-8.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Coming along nicely, and now I have some "credentials" . Someone is writing a utility, and applied it to my first five seasons of my current career. I am counting 33 guys who started with me during that time that changed in potential ratings. 25 of them had an increase, while only 8 had a decrease.

Done.

http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/%7Efof/f...ad.php?t=21765