Predictions For Tomorrow

larrymcg421 · 11-06-2006, 04:53 PM

We did predictions earlier, but how about a quick contest to see who can pick the most correct races?

Pick the winner in these Senate races (I selected the 10 closest). The incumbent is listed first. In the absence of an incumbent, the party that is defending the seat is listed first.

Arizona - Kyl (R) vs. Pederson (D)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I) vs. Lamond (D) vs. Schlesinger (R)
Maryland - Cardin (D) vs. Steele (R)
Michigan - Stabenow (D) vs. Bouchard (R)
Missouri - Talent (R) vs. McCaskill (D)
Montana - Burns (R) vs. Tester (D)
New Jersey - Menendez (D) vs. Kean (R)
Ohio - Dewine (R) vs. Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Santorum (R) vs. Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R) vs. Ford (D)
Virginia - Allen (R) vs. Webb (D)

Tiebreaker:
How many House Seats will Dems gain (Use minus if you think they will lose)?

larrymcg421 · 11-06-2006, 05:00 PM

Here are my picks...

Arizona - Kyl
Connecticut - Lieberman
Maryland - Cardin
Michigan - Stabenow
Missouri - McCaskill
Montana - Tester
New Jersey - Menendez
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Tennessee - Corker
Virginia - Webb

Dems +15 in House

Arles · 11-06-2006, 05:23 PM

Here it goes:

Arizona - Kyl
Connecticut - Lieberman
Maryland - Steele
Michigan - Stabenow
Missouri - Talent
Montana - Burns
New Jersey - Menendez
Ohio - Brown
Pennsylvania - Casey
Tennessee - Corker
Virginia - Allen

Dems +16 in House

Solecismic · 11-06-2006, 05:53 PM

I can't resist these...

AZ - Kyl
CT - Lieberman
MD - Cardin
MI - Stabenow
MO - Talent
MT - Burns
NJ - Menendez
OH - Brown
PA - Casey
TN - Corker
VA - Webb
(RI - ends up being 2nd-closest race, but Chafee does not pull it out)

D +32 in House

Swaggs · 11-06-2006, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solecismic

(RI - ends up being 2nd-closest race, but Chafee does not pull it out)

Which do you think will be the closest? Virginia?

Arizona - Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Cardin (D)
Michigan - Stabenow (D)
Missouri - Talent (R)
Montana - Tester (D)
New Jersey - Menendez (D)
Ohio - Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R)
Virginia - Webb (D)

Tiebreaker:
+22

Solecismic · 11-06-2006, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Which do you think will be the closest? Virginia?

Which is the only one we called differently? Which is the one that had Bush flying across the country a few days ago? Allen is toast. Burns/Tester is the one that no one seems to have a handle on.

Wolfpack · 11-06-2006, 09:21 PM

AZ-Kyl
CT-Lieberman
MD-Cardin
MI-Stabenow
MO-Talent
MT-Tester
NJ-Menendez
OH-Brown
PA-Casey
TN-Corker
VA-Allen

Dems +19 in House

CamEdwards · 11-06-2006, 09:58 PM

Oh what the hell.

AZ- Kyl
CT- Lieberman
MD- Steele
MI-Stabenow
MO-Talent
MT-Burns
NJ-Menendez
OH-Brown
PA-Casey
TN-Corker
VA-Allen

I think the Dems pick up 18 seats in the House.

chinaski · 11-06-2006, 10:14 PM

Kyl (R)
Lieberman (I)
Cardin (D)
Stabenow (D)
McCaskill (D)
Tester (D)
Menendez (D)
Brown (D)
Casey (D)
Ford (D)
Webb (D)

Tiebreaker:
How many House Seats will Dems gain (Use minus if you think they will lose)?

Answer: +30

CamEdwards · 11-06-2006, 10:27 PM

Oh, and not to contradict you Jim, but the last five polls in the VA race have all been within the margin of error, with the exception of the Survey USA poll that has some serious sampling errors.

Webb could very easily win, but there's no way Allen is toast.

Solecismic · 11-06-2006, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

Oh, and not to contradict you Jim, but the last five polls in the VA race have all been within the margin of error, with the exception of the Survey USA poll that has some serious sampling errors.

Webb could very easily win, but there's no way Allen is toast.

It's just a theory, but I believe I'm getting a handle on how things move between the polls and the actual election. I'd be surprised if Webb doesn't win by 5-10 points. It needs work, though. I thought Kerry would win two years ago.

Edit... does "toast" include "yeah, it was close enough for a recount, but he still lost?"

Rizon · 11-06-2006, 10:45 PM

CA: The Governator in a landslide.

MrBigglesworth · 11-07-2006, 01:22 AM

Arizona - Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lamont (D)
Maryland - Cardin (D)
Michigan - Stabenow (D)
Missouri - McCaskill (D)
Montana - Tester (D)
New Jersey - Menendez (D)
Ohio - Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R)
Virginia - Webb (D)

Tiebreaker: +25

Biggest leap of faith I made was Lamont, the polls all show Lieberman with a big lead, but ballot position and Lamont's far superior ground game I think has a chance to close the lead. I feel like Schlesinger will end up more in the mid-teens range than the high single digits like he has been polling at. Like Jim said though, MT has been trending towards Burns lately, but I don't think he has enough time to close the entire gap.

albionmoonlight · 11-07-2006, 08:21 AM

Arizona - Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Cardin (D)
Michigan - Stabenow (D)
Missouri - Talent (R)
Montana - Burns (R)
New Jersey - Menendez (D)
Ohio - Brown (D)
Pennsylvania - Casey (D)
Tennessee - Corker (R)
Virginia - Allen (R)

Tiebreaker:
+30

Fighter of Foo · 11-07-2006, 09:57 AM

AZ-Kyl
CT-Lieberman
MD-Cardin
MI-Stabenow
MO-McCaskill
MT-Tester
NJ-Menendez
OH-Brown
PA-Casey
TN-Corker
VA-Webb (Closest race)

Dems +40

larrymcg421 · 11-08-2006, 01:37 PM

Through the 10 races that have been called so far, here's where we stand (with the pick in the 11th race in brackets)...

larrymcg421 - 10 (Webb)
Fighter of Foo - 10 (Webb)
Swaggs - 9 (Webb)
Wolfpack - 9 (Allen)
chinaski - 9 (Webb)
MrBigglesworth - 9 (Webb)
Solecismic - 8 (Webb)
albionmoonlight - 8 (Allen)
Arles - 7 (Allen)
CamEdwards - 7 (Allen)

Wolfpack · 11-08-2006, 02:05 PM

*sigh* Had to pick Allen. So close and yet so far.

MrBigglesworth · 11-08-2006, 11:01 PM

9 out of 10 ain't bad. Was badly wrong on Lieberman though, can't believe the GOP guy only got 10%.

11-06-2006, 05:00 PM	#2
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Here are my picks... Arizona - Kyl Connecticut - Lieberman Maryland - Cardin Michigan - Stabenow Missouri - McCaskill Montana - Tester New Jersey - Menendez Ohio - Brown Pennsylvania - Casey Tennessee - Corker Virginia - Webb Dems +15 in House __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-06-2006, 05:23 PM	#3
Arles Grey Dog Software Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL	Here it goes: Arizona - Kyl Connecticut - Lieberman Maryland - Steele Michigan - Stabenow Missouri - Talent Montana - Burns New Jersey - Menendez Ohio - Brown Pennsylvania - Casey Tennessee - Corker Virginia - Allen Dems +16 in House __________________ Developer of Bowl Bound College Football http://www.greydogsoftware.com

11-06-2006, 09:21 PM	#7
Wolfpack Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Raleigh, NC	AZ-Kyl CT-Lieberman MD-Cardin MI-Stabenow MO-Talent MT-Tester NJ-Menendez OH-Brown PA-Casey TN-Corker VA-Allen Dems +19 in House Last edited by Wolfpack : 11-06-2006 at 09:21 PM.

11-06-2006, 09:58 PM	#8
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	Oh what the hell. AZ- Kyl CT- Lieberman MD- Steele MI-Stabenow MO-Talent MT-Burns NJ-Menendez OH-Brown PA-Casey TN-Corker VA-Allen I think the Dems pick up 18 seats in the House. __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half.

11-06-2006, 10:14 PM	#9
chinaski College Prospect Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Portland, Oregon	Kyl (R) Lieberman (I) Cardin (D) Stabenow (D) McCaskill (D) Tester (D) Menendez (D) Brown (D) Casey (D) Ford (D) Webb (D) Tiebreaker: How many House Seats will Dems gain (Use minus if you think they will lose)? Answer: +30 __________________ CCFL - Buffalo Bills IHOF - Houston Mustangs GML - San Diego

11-06-2006, 05:53 PM	#4
Solecismic Solecismic Software Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Canton, OH	I can't resist these... AZ - Kyl CT - Lieberman MD - Cardin MI - Stabenow MO - Talent MT - Burns NJ - Menendez OH - Brown PA - Casey TN - Corker VA - Webb (RI - ends up being 2nd-closest race, but Chafee does not pull it out) D +32 in House

11-06-2006, 10:27 PM	#10
CamEdwards Stadium Announcer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Burke, VA	Oh, and not to contradict you Jim, but the last five polls in the VA race have all been within the margin of error, with the exception of the Survey USA poll that has some serious sampling errors. Webb could very easily win, but there's no way Allen is toast. __________________ I don't want the world. I just want your half.

11-07-2006, 01:22 AM	#13
MrBigglesworth College Starter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: PA	Arizona - Kyl (R) Connecticut - Lamont (D) Maryland - Cardin (D) Michigan - Stabenow (D) Missouri - McCaskill (D) Montana - Tester (D) New Jersey - Menendez (D) Ohio - Brown (D) Pennsylvania - Casey (D) Tennessee - Corker (R) Virginia - Webb (D) Tiebreaker: +25 Biggest leap of faith I made was Lamont, the polls all show Lieberman with a big lead, but ballot position and Lamont's far superior ground game I think has a chance to close the lead. I feel like Schlesinger will end up more in the mid-teens range than the high single digits like he has been polling at. Like Jim said though, MT has been trending towards Burns lately, but I don't think he has enough time to close the entire gap.

11-07-2006, 08:21 AM	#14
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	Arizona - Kyl (R) Connecticut - Lieberman (I) Maryland - Cardin (D) Michigan - Stabenow (D) Missouri - Talent (R) Montana - Burns (R) New Jersey - Menendez (D) Ohio - Brown (D) Pennsylvania - Casey (D) Tennessee - Corker (R) Virginia - Allen (R) Tiebreaker: +30

11-07-2006, 09:57 AM	#15
Fighter of Foo College Prospect Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Boston, MA	AZ-Kyl CT-Lieberman MD-Cardin MI-Stabenow MO-McCaskill MT-Tester NJ-Menendez OH-Brown PA-Casey TN-Corker VA-Webb (Closest race) Dems +40 Last edited by Fighter of Foo : 11-07-2006 at 09:58 AM.

11-08-2006, 01:37 PM	#16
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Through the 10 races that have been called so far, here's where we stand (with the pick in the 11th race in brackets)... larrymcg421 - 10 (Webb) Fighter of Foo - 10 (Webb) Swaggs - 9 (Webb) Wolfpack - 9 (Allen) chinaski - 9 (Webb) MrBigglesworth - 9 (Webb) Solecismic - 8 (Webb) albionmoonlight - 8 (Allen) Arles - 7 (Allen) CamEdwards - 7 (Allen) __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-08-2006, 02:05 PM	#17
Wolfpack Pro Rookie Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Raleigh, NC	sigh Had to pick Allen. So close and yet so far.

11-08-2006, 11:01 PM	#18
MrBigglesworth College Starter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: PA	9 out of 10 ain't bad. Was badly wrong on Lieberman though, can't believe the GOP guy only got 10%.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)