Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned

[Vince]

Ardent passed Jeff a silver piece on the first day -- but I think it was randomly distributed, not given to the wolves.

[Poli]

I had passed Jeff silver since he was the first to unvote me on day 1. I also figured the king was a villager.

I'm still suspicious of Kingfc22. Because of that, and due to having a compressed schedule today:

Vote kingfc22.

My circle of trust includes eagles and RA. The Hammer man is out.

[Poli]

Wolves now have the Robe with Henry dying.Negative. He passed it. And I know to who.

[Vince]

Negative. He passed it. And I know to who.
So you are the notebook man? Between you and Bug, we've got an awful lot of "I know xxx" going around.

[Poli]

So you are the notebook man? Between you and Bug, we've got an awful lot of "I know xxx" going around.No. Henry was talking to me yesterday. He told me who he was passing it to.

[hoopsguy]

Here are some of the areas where Raiders has shown up on my radar - have post numbers for some of them.

During the Fouts/Lathum Day 2 saga he came out early saying something didn't feel right. If he is a wolf then he knows both are villagers and this is an opportunity for him to build credibility by appearing to want to gather all the facts. He originally votes for Lathum, but then flip-flops to Fouts in Post #423.

He then states again, in post #449, that something doesn't seem right. Soothsayer or wolf?

Post #502 - throws out RealDeal/Fouts as suspects. We now know that Fouts was a villager.

Post #503 - Adds SunDvls as another suspect. SunDvls was identified by Mr. Wednesday this morning as a villager

Post #552 - Says Digamma's responses seem strange, but not casting an early vote for the wolf. If a wolf, nice job hedging bets here

Post #632 - Sees that I'm on an island trying to defend Digamma, starts smear campaign on me by asking me as a friend to back away. Knows that Digamma is dead at this point

Post #634 - Votes for Digamma, 10th man on

Post #638 - Points out Kingfc as bandwagon guy when King is 11th man on

Post #641 - Says I'm looking like wolf because I won't let the Digamma thing go, just like X-Com when I was converted

Post #678 - Is Henry a wolf? Nope, another dead villager

Post #685 - Responds to my PM conversations, suggesting that since Henry was talking with both Digamma and him with Robe that perhaps he is a wolf?

Post #737 - Highlights 3 people as more frequent posters on Digamma day: me, Vince, and Eagles. Eagles cast early vote for Digamma (when it mattered) and I have tended to trust Vince early in the game.

Those are some of the posts in the first 1,000 that got me suspicious of Raiders. I recognize that a similar case can be built for several people who have posted regularly in this thread. But I did want to supply some rationale for why I suspected Raiders yesterday (and still do today).

[Raiders Army]

For the record:

Vince, I never claimed I had the robe. I guess I was a little misleading when I said I used the robe to communicate. Actually, henry used the robe to communicate with me.

Hoops, I didn't get digamma's silver. I thought if I posted first I would get it. :)

[hoopsguy]

Ardent, if the Hammer guy is not in your circle then I would ask you to reveal him. Force him to pass the hammer to someone tonight. Make him respond why he did not destroy an item last night that you thought deserved to be destroyed.

I understand that if we were to lynch him we would lose the hammer - the villagers would have to factor this into any decision process with voting today.

He would have to pass the hammer tonight if he is a villager in order to keep the item in the game. If the item you passed last night should have been destoyed then I don't want this guy continuing to hold this item anyways.

[Raiders Army]

Actually hoops, I think it was post #737 that made you suspicious of me because I put your name in red. Heh heh.

To repeat once again, I think that it could've been an indicator, not that an increase in posts was damning. (BTW, counting up those posts wasn't fun)

Some analysis: RealDeal just seems too....arrogant and loud to be a wolf. Let's make the hypothesis that he's a human, which certainly seems plausible. Then, we know for a fact that Blade was a human. That means the wolves yesterday could vote for anyone they wanted to and probably spread out their votes. Also, the wolves could use the strategy of lying low and let us take each other out.

My short list of candidates are the ones who have "flown under the radar" the past couple of days. Again, this is all predicated on RealDeal being human.

[Poli]

Ardent, if the Hammer guy is not in your circle then I would ask you to reveal him. Force him to pass the hammer to someone tonight. Make him respond why he did not destroy an item last night that you thought deserved to be destroyed.

I understand that if we were to lynch him we would lose the hammer - the villagers would have to factor this into any decision process with voting today.

He would have to pass the hammer tonight if he is a villager in order to keep the item in the game. If the item you passed last night should have been destoyed then I don't want this guy continuing to hold this item anyways.
I like this idea, but I need to think it over first. I want to look over all the items and try to figure out what possibilities are out there for him not to destroy it.

[Poli]

My short list of candidates are the ones who have "flown under the radar" the past couple of days. Again, this is all predicated on RealDeal being human.That's one reason I suspect kingfc22.

[hoopsguy]

The "money trail" posts also indicate that for the wolves to have accumulated the six silver that the other two wolves must not have held items. Which means that the person who stole the amulet from Fouts was not a wolf. Or that I'm missing some revenues in the "money trail" post.

Was anyone passing silver to other players in the first two nights?

If a villager has been holding the amulet then it would be really helpful if they would chime in and clear the people they have looked at earlier. Yes that means you have to pass the amulet. Yes, I understand that one of the people viewed earlier could have been converted into a sorcerer last night. But we don't have much info to work with right now. Without more information bubbling up I think RealDeal is going to be lynched today and I want to have better reasons for voting for someone than those I have for him right now.

[henry296]

Good luck to fellow villagers. I am a little surprised that I was targeted last night but it might be ok since I was not going to be able to be active on Saturday.

I want to add something on the silver debate, but I know I can't.

[Coffee Warlord]

Alright, I'll out myself. I've had the Hammer every night but the first night. It was passed to me, and I've hung onto it the entire game. AE can easily corroborate this fact.

Anyway, there's a very simple reason I didn't destroy anything last night. The item I was passed was the Potion. I saw no need to destroy that, so I passed it off to someone I trust. Plain and simple.

I've been waiting to out myself as the Hammer-bearer until I didn't have any items that would make me a wolf target. I'll be passing the Hammer off tonight to keep it hidden, in case there's anything else we want to destroy.

[RealDeal]

Last night I passed the coat and one silver piece to Henry. He was one guy I knew was safe. So now it appears the wolves have the coat.

[Poli]

Warlord is the Hammer. I was hoping to keep this hidden. Quite honestly, I didn't send him anything yesterday. I was not sent anything to send him. Since Warlord is coming clean, I will as well.

In fact, I wasn't sent anything last night, either. Hard to send the Hammer things when I'm not sent anything myself.

Now the Hammer has come clean. I won't be able to send him anything tomorrow. :(

[Poli]

Ahem, excuse me? I wasn't safe?

[Poli]

Add on: Sorry to deceive my fellow villagers, but I didn't want the wolves to think the pipeline to the Hammer was broken. I can't send the Hammer stuff if I don't have it.

UGH!

[Eaglesfan27]

Is there any evidence that exonerates RealDeal? He was loud and arrogant. I don't think that should exonerate him. He was the most vocal proponent of lynching a villager. I'm willing to listen to evidence and change my vote, but right now:

I vote RealDeal.

[Poli]

I'm curious as to why RealDeal doesn't think I was safe, when it's been a near consensus that I am a villager.

[Raiders Army]

Ardent, I think you're safe...as safe as anyone else out there at this point, considering there's a sorceror running around out there now.

Eaglesfan, I don't think there's any hard evidence that would exonerates RealDeal. But then again, there is no "hard evidence" that damns or exonerates anyone, unless someone comes forth and says, "I know for a fact, so-and-so is a wolf." Even then, that's debateable.

[Eaglesfan27]

Ardent, I think you're safe...as safe as anyone else out there at this point, considering there's a sorceror running around out there now.

Eaglesfan, I don't think there's any hard evidence that would exonerates RealDeal. But then again, there is no "hard evidence" that damns or exonerates anyone, unless someone comes forth and says, "I know for a fact, so-and-so is a wolf." Even then, that's debateable.
Fair enough. I agree with your point. If some other information comes to light that indicates someone else is a wolf, I'll switch my vote.

[Poli]

Can one of my excel buddies out there give me a rundown on who voted who and who's still in the game?

[Poli]

Ardent, I think you're safe...as safe as anyone else out there at this point, considering there's a sorceror running around out there now.


Yeah, a new sorcerer does change things up.

[SnDvls]

I don't think it makes sense to post your silver count - only makes you more attractive to the wolves.

that was in case I got killed so you had an idea of what I had, since I didn't I was able to make a purchase.

the wolves started with 3 silver total.
Jeff w/ 1
Ardent said he passed his to jeff so by night 1 they had a minimum 5.

Now if wolf #1 & #2 passed their items to wolf #3 that would give them 7 total silver at the end of night 1. Did jeff pick up qwik's silver? that's 8

It is very conceviable that 1 wolf had all the silver and on night 2 bought the book. and they could just pass things back and forth to continue to collect silver. and at this point have 2 books. just my thoughts. I'll continue to read all the posts from last night to this morning now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

SnDvls -- ??? -- Villager. Mr. Wednesday is someone I believe to be a villager. If he vouches for SnDvls, that's enough for me.He appeared to me to be a villager. I think it's highly unlikely that he would have a mask, at this point, with one used and one destroyed. It's not completely out of the question, but I think we can neglect that possibility for now.

[hoopsguy]

Did I miss somewhere where the wolves started with one silver? I thought everyone started with zero.

[Poli]

I started with 1 silver.

[SnDvls]

I started w/ 1

[Raiders Army]

Can one of my excel buddies out there give me a rundown on who voted who and who's still in the game?
I'd like to do this, but I still have six more reports to write before I go home today. Yay Friday. I don't think that the voting patterns will help much other than when we lynched digamma and blade (even that one won't help much if RealDeal turns out to be a villager).

[Raiders Army]

The other thing with voting patterns is that every other time I've done it and tried to pick out the wolves, the analysis was wrong. Maybe it was the person doing the analysis. :)

[Poli]

Good luck, Warlord. I don't know what you plan to do with the Hammer. Really screws my plans. I was going to dodge the issue today...which easily would have worked since I'm driving home this afternoon.

[Coffee Warlord]

I started with 1 silver.

Ditto.

[SnDvls]

Can one of my excel buddies out there give me a rundown on who voted who and who's still in the game?


working on it now

[Coffee Warlord]

Good luck, Warlord. I don't know what you plan to do with the Hammer. Really screws my plans. I was going to dodge the issue today...which easily would have worked since I'm driving home this afternoon.

We'll see. I was hoping to keep it quiet, but your early posts made me feel like I had to defend myself. Besides, the major item that needed to be destroyed (the mask) has been destroyed, so it's not a big deal.

I trust the person I'm passing the Hammer off to, so we should be alright, unless I'm just a terrible judge of roles.

[RealDeal]

vote RealDeal

let's do this.

[Coffee Warlord]

vote RealDeal

let's do this.

...

[RealDeal]

Ardent, when I said Henry one guy I knew was safe, it didn't mean he was the only guy. I thought about you, but I felt like you had been too public with your role and were a likely candidate to die. Unfrotunately, I made the wrong choice and passed it to a guy who was alive all of 30 seconds before the wolves killed him.

[SnDvls]

(name) (day1), (day2), (day3), (day4)

sundvls - (Mr. W),(Lathum),(Dig),(Sup., unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, NO VOTE)
kingfc22 - (hoops),(NO VOTE),(Dig),(NO VOTE)
Coffee Warlord - (AE),(Lathum),(Dig.),(NO VOTE)
Eaglesfan27 - (Qwik),(Lathum),(BrianD),(RealDeal)
hoopsguy - (Qwik),(Lathum),(BrianD),(Raiders)
schmidty - (AE),(Lathum),(Dig),(Blade, unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, Blade)
vince - (Eaglesfan),(Lathum),(Dig),(Blade, unvoted, RealDeal)
RealDeal (Qwik),(Lathum),(Dig),(Blade)
Raiders - (fouts),(Lathum, unvoted, fouts),(Dig),(Sup., unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, Blade)
Mr. Wednesday - (SnDvls),(Lathum, unvoted, SnDlvs),(Dig),(NO VOTE)
MrBug708 - (Sup.),(Lathum),(Dig.),(SnDvls, unvoted, hoops, unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, Blade)
Superman=#54 - (AE),(fouts),(NO VOTE),(RealDeal)
ardent enthusiast - (schmidty, unvoted, Qwik),(Lathum),(Dig),(King)

[Mr. Wednesday]

The other thing with voting patterns is that every other time I've done it and tried to pick out the wolves, the analysis was wrong. Maybe it was the person doing the analysis. :) In Neon_Chaos' mafia game, voting analysis worked out spectacularly well for me, even though I never figured out how to leverage the knowledge toward winning the game. Of course, I wasn't a villager, so I had a little more knowledge than usual.

[SnDvls]

with that being said

vote Raiders Army

[Mr. Wednesday]

This is a shot in the dark, based only on a suspicious voting record.

Vote EaglesFan27

[SnDvls]

The "money trail" posts also indicate that for the wolves to have accumulated the six silver that the other two wolves must not have held items. Which means that the person who stole the amulet from Fouts was not a wolf. Or that I'm missing some revenues in the "money trail" post.



not totally true. if they kept doing a pass and keep between them w/ one of them alway without an item they'd be able to keep the items for the day and still get silver at night.

[Raiders Army]

with that being said

vote Raiders Army
Okay...no hard feelings, but a little reasoning? Just because I said a vote analysis wouldn't do much at this point?

[Poli]

Looks like we're going to be spreading our votes out today. With no solid leads, I suppose we're back at square one.

Darn Warlord. Darn friggin Warlord. You were in the circle...I just had to make it appear you weren't. Darn Warlord.

[Raiders Army]

In Neon_Chaos' mafia game, voting analysis worked out spectacularly well for me, even though I never figured out how to leverage the knowledge toward winning the game. Of course, I wasn't a villager, so I had a little more knowledge than usual.
I think it depends on what has happened in the game. I didn't follow that thread, but it seems as if there's little to derive from the way voting went in this game due to the fact that digamma was the only wolf lynched that we know for sure.

That's why I went with post counts the day before he was lynched and the day of to see if there were any indicators there.

[Raiders Army]

Sigh....back to report #3.

[SnDvls]

Okay...no hard feelings, but a little reasoning? Just because I said a vote analysis wouldn't do much at this point?

that's really all I'm basing it on. I see how you voted and when you unvoted, makes me wonder...not just you though either. Superman is still up there along with Bug too. I had to pick one of you three.

[Poli]

With Warlord out, I can now say I've been suspicious of Superman. I still for the life of me can't figure out why they didn't go after CW, Schmidty, Superman, or myself.

Of course, I can't figure out why items haven't been fed to me, either. Now that pipeline is done. Sigh.

[Poli]

Wow. RA used the word sigh as well. That's...an interesting coincidence.

[SnDvls]

With Warlord out, I can now say I've been suspicious of Superman. I still for the life of me can't figure out why they didn't go after CW, Schmidty, Superman, or myself.

Of course, I can't figure out why items haven't been fed to me, either. Now that pipeline is done. Sigh.


well I haven't gotten anything either. Earlier I can see it's because I'm not really in the "fofc crowd" and lately it's because a few (bug and Sup) pointed fingers at me as a wolf. Now if I don't get something tonight (assuming I live) I think it's because you all have smell-o-vision or somthing :D

[Mr. Wednesday]

SnDvls, FWIW, you're currently in my circle of trust (that term being in vogue of late). I think Vince believes me about you as well.

[MrBug708]

I dont have too mcuh to go on eirght now either but

vote - Raiders Army

[hoopsguy]

If we do not have any seer revelations today then I'm looking at two candidates:
RealDeal - fallout from yesterday
RaidersArmy - based on my suspicions I have outlined earlier

I'm really looking for a better reason to vote for someone than I have for either of these two but I don't know how long it serves our collective purposes to wait for information that may not emerge. Sometime soon we need to get the conversation going ...

[SnDvls]

I think RealDeal is ok...right now

Raiders and Bug have big question marks for me. With both when the vote/unvote and how.
Superman falls in that category too, but I'm getting a stronger vibe from the first two

don't know if that helps anyone, but it's my 2 cents

[Poli]

About 1 more hour till I leave. I certainly hope we get the right guy this time.

[Raiders Army]

I dont have too mcuh to go on eirght now either but

vote - Raiders Army
Okay...this is a little maddening. Why me? I'd like to think I've helped more than I've (unintentionally) hurt. I guess you guys don't see it that way.

Then again, judging on your spelling (or typing skills) I would guess that you're drunk. Heh heh.

No, seriously, why me? I don't think RealDeal is the one, but in case it comes down to it, I'll vote for him because of self-preservation. I'd also like you to think about the question I asked of him last night: Why vote for yourself?

If he's an innocent villager, he's only helping the wolves, and that's somewhat odd.

If he's a wolf, it's a brilliant ploy to deflect it on someone else.



2 more reports to go in real life.

[Raiders Army]

yeah, and if I forgot

Vote RealDeal

[Vince]

Raiders Army -- Well Other Leads Fail me.

I've been trying to follow up on any sort of lead possible, and I keep coming up with question marks. I still don't know if subtlety or brazen revealing is the way to go -- I think I'm leaning towards subtlety right now.

[SnDvls]

[QUOTE=Raiders Army]Okay...this is a little maddening. Why me? I'd like to think I've helped more than I've (unintentionally) hurt. I guess you guys don't see it that way.

Then again, judging on your spelling (or typing skills) I would guess that you're drunk. Heh heh.

No, seriously, why me? I don't think RealDeal is the one, but in case it comes down to it, I'll vote for him because of self-preservation. I'd also like you to think about the question I asked of him last night: Why vote for yourself?

[\QUOTE]

ya I'm a little type happy today, not drunk just trying to do too many things at once. Raiders it sucks knowing your innocent and no one believes you, well take this for what it's worth. unvote Raiders Army

vote Superman

I had him a couple of times on my radar.

[Superman=#54]

Any real reasons as to why am worthy of a vote?

I have been quiet. Sndvls I have never accused you alone. In my post I listed several people that were suspect of being wolves. I never gave a direct accusation. I was just analyzing what I have read. I'm just a villager, nothing more and nothing less.

[Coffee Warlord]

Folks are on their way up to visit, and I will thusly be gone and inaccesible from 5pm till late this evening, so...

Vote RealDeal

He was a huge proponent of offing a villager, and, to be perfectly honest, I'm not altogether thrilled about the pissing contest that went on last night.

[Vince]

Okay...this is a little maddening. Why me? I'd like to think I've helped more than I've (unintentionally) hurt. I guess you guys don't see it that way.
I re-read everything RA, and I can't come up with anything concrete about you. That being said, it didn't alleviate my suspicion of you. I've got a few leads on what is going on, but there are a few glaring holes in my analysis because I don't know who has what. If I knew what you had yesterday/have today, I could probably clear your name completely -- but that's unlikely to happen.

[Raiders Army]

I re-read everything RA, and I can't come up with anything concrete about you. That being said, it didn't alleviate my suspicion of you. I've got a few leads on what is going on, but there are a few glaring holes in my analysis because I don't know who has what. If I knew what you had yesterday/have today, I could probably clear your name completely -- but that's unlikely to happen.
*Whew, just got done with my inspection reports...8 in total*

Alrighty, now my full attention can be on the game...at least for the next 20 minutes until I go home. I am leery of letting people know what I had/have yesterday and today, simply because that makes me a target. I'd like to clear myself, but I'm not willing to risk it.

One thing that came to my mind while I was working is that maybe RealDeal is the sorceror? But then that doesn't jive with what happened last night, since he said that he was going to vote for himself before someone was converted.

I think if we get a wolf or a sorceror at least by tomorrow night that would be great.

Also, can I put in a vote to put this game on hiatus over the weekend with the next lynch vote on Monday night? There are some preseason games I'd like to watch on the NFL Network as well as Kung Fu Hustle and I'm going to get Madden.

[Vince]

I am leery of letting people know what I had/have yesterday and today, simply because that makes me a target. I'd like to clear myself, but I'm not willing to risk it.I hate to break it to you my friend, but you're already a target on a few people's minds.

One thing that came to my mind while I was working is that maybe RealDeal is the sorceror? But then that doesn't jive with what happened last night, since he said that he was going to vote for himself before someone was converted.

There was no sorceror until AFTER the night actions, so that can't be. I myself am very suspicious of RealDeal's actions...I don't know how/where to place him. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he still has the Coat of Arms.

[SnDvls]

I second the hiatus thing, I'm going to ASU's training camp this Sat. all morning so I'd be hard to be active.

Superman, unless a landslide comes at you I'm keeping my vote there. I don't want to off a villager, but I don't want everyone to bandwaggon on you either until I know more.

[Peregrine]

Also, can I put in a vote to put this game on hiatus over the weekend with the next lynch vote on Monday night? There are some preseason games I'd like to watch on the NFL Network as well as Kung Fu Hustle and I'm going to get Madden.

Is that a threat? Why should we care how Madden you get? ;)

I was going to have the next lynch vote on Sunday night but I don't mind moving it back if several people have problems with it.

[Raiders Army]

I hate to break it to you my friend, but you're already a target on a few people's minds.
Really???

There was no sorceror until AFTER the night actions, so that can't be. I myself am very suspicious of RealDeal's actions...I don't know how/where to place him. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he still has the Coat of Arms.
Hmmmmm....That's a possibility then. Actually, that's the only reason I can think of as to why someone would want others to vote for them.

Now, the question is why would he want to get rid of it?

[Raiders Army]

Is that a threat? Why should we care how Madden you get? ;)

I was going to have the next lynch vote on Sunday night but I don't mind moving it back if several people have problems with it.
Because....not only do I have an NCAA dynasty going, but I also need to get my Madden dynasty kickin!

[Vince]

I am leery of letting people know what I had/have yesterday and today, simply because that makes me a target. I'd like to clear myself, but I'm not willing to risk it.
I'm still leery of you unless I can figure out what it is you held yesterday. Today's item would probably also clear you, but yesterday's is the important one, and I think you'll agree that admitting to an item you may no longer possess is much less damning than the one you currently hold.

[Raiders Army]

I guess it doesn't matter at this point, but I don't like the fact that people will know that the wolves have it now. I had a saber of duels, but I passed it onto henry last night. I was going to hold onto it since it looked like I might have to duel hoops (heh heh), but I gave it to henry because I think that I've been a little too vocal the past few days and I might've been a target last night. Ironically, I gave it to the target last night.

[Peregrine]

Voting so far:

kingfc22 - ardent
RealDeal - Eaglesfan27, RealDeal, Raiders Army, Coffee Warlord
Raiders Army - MrBug708
Eaglesfan27 - Mr. Wednesday
Superman - Sndvls

[Vince]

So now the Wolves have a sabre of duels AND the coat of arms (if RealDeal is to be believed)? Ay...what a disastrous night. Give me a minute to update my info here, and I'll see what I can do about clearing you, RA.

[Raiders Army]

Going home now. I'll check you guys out later.

[RealDeal]

This is a compilation of all the information I have. It's not much, but it will be useful to you after tonight.

1. I started the game with the coat of arms.
2. I kept the coat of arms up until last night.
3. I received 1 silver of Blade's money when he died.
4. I passed the coat and the 1 silver to henry last night.
5. I received another silver this morning since I did not have an item.
6. I have no hard evidence, but my top three suspects have been king (really laying low), superman, and coffee warlord, although ardent's statements seems to clear CW.

I do once again urge you to kill me tonight, so I can be vindicated. Blade's actions have harmed this team more than any actions the wolves have taken so far.

[Raiders Army]

I guess that's some good knowledge for us all to know; I've been too hammered at work here to think of the game clearly. Maybe I should've used it, but I didn't want to kill a villagers (odds were). Also, henry is the one I talked to, so I trusted him (although I didn't the day I talked to him!)

I'm going home now.

[Vince]

I guess it doesn't matter at this point, but I don't like the fact that people will know that the wolves have it now. I had a saber of duels, but I passed it onto henry last night. I was going to hold onto it since it looked like I might have to duel hoops (heh heh), but I gave it to henry because I think that I've been a little too vocal the past few days and I might've been a target last night. Ironically, I gave it to the target last night.
Hrm, well that's not at all what I was expecting you to say. It doesn't clear you -- and your response here puts you even more in the limelight. Why wouldn't you want anyone to know that the wolves have the sabre? Now we have a definite wolf if the sabre is used -- a pretty good trade off, if you ask me.

[Vince]

Hoops has been awfully quiet today...and if I was a wolf, I'd probably look to converting someone like him -- thoughtful, not quite a major target. Plus, I haven't ever been thouroughly convinced that he isn't a wolf to begin with. What's your take on today, hoops?

[SnDvls]

Something give me a bad feeling that all my talk about trusting AE that he was converted last night.

[Vince]

Well, I'm out to mow the lawns over here at my uncle's. I should be back in an hour or so. Currently, the only people I'm not distrustful of are SnDvls, Mr. Wednesday and myself. Coffee Warlord seems to be pretty safe in my eyes too. Everyone else? I have no clue :(

[MrBug708]

Unvote - Raiders Army
Vote - Ardent E

I think you were a werewolf from the get go or were converted last night. Just a hunch is all...

[Peregrine]

Current voting:

kingfc22 - ardent
RealDeal - Eaglesfan27, RealDeal, Raiders Army, Coffee Warlord
Eaglesfan27 - Mr. Wednesday
Superman - Sndvls
ardent - MrBug708

Still 6 people haven't voted.

[hoopsguy]

Been quiet because I was at a client site today with another person from my work - can't spend as much time posting when I've got customers and co-workers to work with :(

Which is too bad because this is a day that I think is pretty pivotal for us.

Was not converted last night, although of course I would say that even if it was so that is a lousy defense. I would use my posts on the money trail as a demonstration of my continued villager status.

Hopefully more thoughts to come ... have to catch up on the thread a little bit before commenting further.

[hoopsguy]

Although it isn't explicit, the stories between AE and Coffee dovetail together nicely enough that I would believe they are a package deal - both villagers or both wolves. I don't believe the latter; there is no reason for the wolves to associate with each other any more in their postings than any other two random people on the board unless the life of a wolf is called into question and it appears to be salvageable.

This assumes that one of them wasn't converted last night. Which also screws with my previous trust of Vince to some extent.

Two other "villagers" that appear tied together at this point is Mr. Wednesday and SunDvls. Wednesday vouches for Sun as a villager.

So that leaves some parties that are up for grabs - dont' have time for a full list before making the drive home but hope to continue these thoughts soon:

RealDeal - probably going to pass tonight. I hope that Blade was lucky/good in targeting him early in the process and forcing the issue.

Raiders - a guy I have been watching closely for two days now. Why would he give away the Saber? What was he hoping to gain with that move if he thought I might turn up the heat today? If he is a villager wouldn't he be inclined to think that someone focusing on him is a werewolf? If so, the saber would be a nice backup option in the event that a lynching is approaching. Same logic holds if a wolf - why give this item up if you feel that you are in danger during the daytime hours? Unless you are trying to accumulate silver for some reason ...

Eaglesfan - really wish he was more actively participating. I thought I would have fun playing this game with him after reading his analysis (OK, it was wrong, but still ...) during the first Vampire/WW game. He has stated that he isn't able to be as active this week, but is every person who stated that being honest vs. lying low as a wolf until numbers are more advantageous? A suspect, but not terribly high on the list. Medium/high on the list of guys I would convert if I was a wolf.

[Raiders Army]

Hrm, well that's not at all what I was expecting you to say. It doesn't clear you -- and your response here puts you even more in the limelight. Why wouldn't you want anyone to know that the wolves have the sabre? Now we have a definite wolf if the sabre is used -- a pretty good trade off, if you ask me.
Okay, I'm sorry but work took precedence today, although I checked in now and then. Fridays and Mondays always suck for me because it's when I do the most work.

Today I had to write up our inspection reports which were (on average) 4 pages. That sucked. I was able to cut and paste a lot, but it still sucked some brain cells out of my head. Couple that with my Friday morning run (2.9 miles all uphill), and I'm officially fried today.

This is my last post in this thread, since we're going to watch Kung Fu Shuffle and then I'm going to bed....with my wife!!!

I have no night actions at this point, so I'll see you all this weekend sometime. I'll probably check in tomorrow morning.

[Vince]

Well, I'm running late, and I agree with hoopsguy -- this is a pivotal vote. I wanted to try to figure out who the second werewolf was before posting this...but since I'm on the way out and I might be killed tonight, it needs to be put out in the open.

I own the Notebook. It was passed to me yesterday, and I used it that night to track the Coat of Arms. This is where things get interesting.

RealDeal is telling the truth -- he passed the Coat of Arms to Henry. Henry was killed, so the coat of arms was lost to the wolves, however...the notebook also allows me to see where the item ended up...

...which is with Raiders Army.

Even though he has the coat of arms and it's a wasted vote, I haven't been able to draw out the other wolf, so I vote for Raiders Army.

I am going to pass the notebook on to someone who I think is a villager tonight, so that in case I die, it remains in the game -- it is a quite valuable item, in my opinion.

Good luck gentlemen, and godspeed.

[Schmidty]

Well, I guess I'll:

Vote RealDeal

If only to get him out of the game.

[Eaglesfan27]

Eaglesfan - really wish he was more actively participating. I thought I would have fun playing this game with him after reading his analysis (OK, it was wrong, but still ...) during the first Vampire/WW game. He has stated that he isn't able to be as active this week, but is every person who stated that being honest vs. lying low as a wolf until numbers are more advantageous? A suspect, but not terribly high on the list. Medium/high on the list of guys I would convert if I was a wolf.
I've been fairly quiet because I haven't had any significant insightful things to say. However, I've posted impressions wherever I've had them. I guess I've been a bit gun shy about posting detailed analysis after my analysis was so severely flawed in the game where SirFozzie and the vampires won.

Also, my wife truly has been on vacation this week which has lowered my activity somewhat. However, she isn't home tonight and I'll be following the next few hours with great interest. I am on call tonight which will hopefully be quiet (that is why she went out with her best friend tonight.)

Also, I think it is easier to do a detailed analysis when they are fewer people and there is more posts to analyze.

[hoopsguy]

Vote Raiders Army

Sucks that it will take two votes to bag him, but I'm glad to see that Raiders got caught in a lie. I passed the Notebook to Vince so I am pretty confident he is telling the truth.

[kingfc22]

After analyzing voting patterns up to this point and the analysis of Vince and Hoops of whom I trust are villagers. I will cast my vote for:

Vote Raiders Army

[Mr. Wednesday]

Unvote EaglesFan27
Vote RaidersArmy

[Mr. Wednesday]

Er, wait. If he has the coat of arms, then I'll hold off on that and angle for someone else.

Unvote Raiders Army
Vote EaglesFan27

[Eaglesfan27]

I think the analysis is solid by Hoopsguy and Vince, but I think RealDeal might still be a wolf. His behavior is outlandish, and I think he is trying to fool us by passing the coat and voting for himself. I'll stick with my vote for now.

[Vince]

I think the analysis is solid by Hoopsguy and Vince, but I think RealDeal might still be a wolf. His behavior is outlandish, and I think he is trying to fool us by passing the coat and voting for himself. I'll stick with my vote for now.
For what it's worth, I think this would be an incredibly devious strategy...

RealDeal and Raiders Army are wolves.

RealDeal passes the Coat of Arms to Henry...whom they then attack, knowing they can get the Coat of Arms back.

RealDeal is then killed, Raiders Army piles on to look innocent, and not only does RA look innocent, but he has a 'get out of lynch free' card.

RealDeal voting for himself is just...odd, though. And Raiders Army didn't exactly pile on -- that leads me to believe that RealDeal is in fact a villager.

[SnDvls]

UNVOTE SUPERMAN
VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

I guess we'll see who has the coat

[Vince]

Well, something that I just now noticed that alleviates a LOT of worries --

Notebook of the Detective – [Notebook] The owner of the notebook may designate one item to track in the night. The Detective will be notified who ended up with the Item after the pass phase. The detective is not notified if the Thief steals the item, he will still think it is with its old owner. If the tracked item is not in the game he will be notified of that.
I was worried that RA might have used the Thief's Glove to steal it, and that's how he ended up with it -- but since this is the case, Raider's Army has to be a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Also, if RealDeal is a wolf with Raiders he could have just passed him the Coat - no need to go through Henry for it.

The fact that RealDeal surrendered the item when he was up for lynching makes me strongly believe he is a villager. Not 100%, but pretty close. If he was a wolf he could at least stall us out with the item.

Also, Real posted that he sent it to Henry before Vince came out with the Notebook. I just don't see him being deceitful here. Say what you will about how he played the game earlier, I see him as on my team at this point. And Real votes very low on my sorceror worries since the chances of him being lynched today were quite high.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, sure is quiet around here ... guys, it really looks like we have a wolf in our sites and we still have four votes (tie) on RealDeal. Raiders is not moving his ...

Votes are, I think:
Kingfc - Ardent
RealDeal - Eagles, RealDeal, Raiders, Coffee, Schmidty
Eagles - Mr. Wednesday
Ardent - Bug
Raiders - Vince, Hoops, Kingfc, Sundvls

[hoopsguy]

Tie is another stalemate. We absolutely cannot afford this.

[hoopsguy]

And the only alive villager that I'm seeing in the list of active users on the site is Schmidty - last posted 14 minutes ago in "What the Hell Do You Look Like".

Jeff, Fouts, Henry, Lathum - wish one of you guys could cast a vote right about now as I've seen you viewing the thread.

[Eaglesfan27]

I think RealDeal is trying to pull a fast one. I'll gladly vote for Raiders tomorrow if we are wrong in lynching RealDeal. However, with all of the theatrics, I just have to think that he is a wolf trying to throw us off his tail.

[jeff061]

Jeff, Fouts, Henry, Lathum - wish one of you guys could cast a vote right about now as I've seen you viewing the thread

I don't think that'd go over to well :D.

[hoopsguy]

Welcome to the party Eagles, Schmidty (lurkers) - anything I can do to convince you guys to change your votes to Raiders?

[hoopsguy]

Eagles, we don't have the luxury of killing a villager and having Raiders resist a lynching tomorrow.

Lynch Real Deal tomorrow if somehow Raiders doesn't have the coat.

[Eaglesfan27]

Welcome to the party Eagles, Schmidty (lurkers) - anything I can do to convince you guys to change your votes to Raiders?

You have me convinced that Raiders is almost certainly a wolf, but I really think RealDeal is as well. From your analysis, we know that Raiders has the coat, and that RealDeal doesn't. I think RealDeal is acting so crazy that he is a liability to us even if he isn't a wolf, but I think he is.

I'm not 100% positive that Raiders is a wolf because isn't it possible that the wolves could have passed it to him after eating Henry and obtaining the coat? I need to re-read the rules again to be sure.

[hoopsguy]

Running the numbers it is possible we can afford it, but that depends on how quickly they create another wolf and if items that kill villagers come into play. If Real is a villager and we kill him today we are in serious, serious trouble. Don't vote for him because he was a jag.

[hoopsguy]

Vince gave Raiders the opportunity to come clean about his item earlier and he passed it up.

Please read quickly - tick tock ...

[hoopsguy]

Assuming I can count ...

Real has five votes
Raiders has four

Need one switch or two people who have not voted or who are on other candidates to make the move to Raiders.

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm reviewing everything in this thread now. If Raiders Army has the coat, he clearly is a wolf. I'm reading quickly.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty - any comments? Seen you in here a couple of times now in last ten minutes.

[hoopsguy]

Pretty much out of time here - there is going to be some serious explaining to do if Real Deal ends up a villager.

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm going to stick with RealDeal, and I'll tell you why. He has acted highly suspicious from VERY early in this game. He has made so many posts that make me question his tactical ability, however, this could have been a brilliant trick of playing stupid. I think he is a Wolf. I apologize in advance if I'm wrong.

I also think Raiders Army is a wolf. However, I believe he has the coat. I don't think we can afford to not kill someone who I have a high suspicion is a wolf because the Wolves may have lethal items such as the poisonous dart which has already struck an innocent villager down.

I apologize in advance if I'm wrong about RealDeal, however, clearly I'm not the only that is suspicious of him.

[hoopsguy]

Nope, but there are two of you here with the power to change this vote - you and Schmidty.

I'm not flat accusing of wolf/sorcerer, but don't think you can blame me or the others for considering this a pretty significant piece of the puzzle as we try to figure out where to go after we finish with Raiders.

Both of you were online and in the thread at the end.

[hoopsguy]

If Raiders is a wolf, there is only one other wolf - what are the odds it is RealDeal? We'll see in a minute ...

[Schmidty]

Schmidty - any comments? Seen you in here a couple of times now in last ten minutes.

I'm not always here even though I appear in the thread. For example, I've been away from the computer for a half hour or so cooking, but I leave FOFC up, and I'm usually looking at this thread.

As far as what I think: Everything is a crapshoot right now. All the analysis in the world can't make up for lying, acting, etc., and that's the beauty of these games. :)

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm more suspicious of those that didn't vote at all, than I am of Schmidty. I know I'm a villager. I might be a villager with flawed logic, but I am a villager.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty - your timestamp for being in the thread updated during the process. So you didn't just walk away from the computer at 6:30 and come back after 7:00, unable to get your vote in.

Eagles - I would be more suspicious of villagers that showed up as registered users (all of us) online. But there wasn't anyone in this game that showed up there for the last half hour. I would have posted a "Ping: Somebody" thread to tell them to get into this thread if I had seen them come online.

[Eaglesfan27]

If Raiders is a wolf, there is only one other wolf - what are the odds it is RealDeal? We'll see in a minute ...
I'm embarassed to ask this, but did we lynch a wolf that I'm forgetting about? I thought Peregrine said there were 3 to start the game, and I don't remember what wolf we've lynched. I thought we had only gotten 2 sorcerors.

Note, that I'm very tired from a long week of work (and a few nights of late Madden) so I hope I don't sound too stupid if we did lynch a wolf..

[hoopsguy]

Digamma. The guy that I defended :mad:

[Eaglesfan27]

Ahh, I forgot about Digamma (this thread is so big that I didn't have a chance to review every single page today, and had honestly forgot about him on night 3.)

[Schmidty]

Schmidty - your timestamp for being in the thread updated during the process. So you didn't just walk away from the computer at 6:30 and come back after 7:00, unable to get your vote in.

Ok, Mr. Mason. I most certainly have been cooking dinner, and haven't been at the computer the entire time my name has been in the thread (as I said before).

What do you mean by getting my vote in? I voted a while ago.....

[hoopsguy]

I didn't imply that you didn't cook dinner. However, your timestamp updated between 6:30 and 7:00. You had an opportunity to swing the vote towards Raiders. There is compelling evidence that Raiders is a wolf. You kept your vote on RealDeal.

I'm not saying RealDeal didn't warrant a vote if there were not other good candidates. But what more did Vince and I need to put out there to condemn Raiders?

If RealDeal is a wolf, then bravo to both of you to sticking with your guns.

[kingfc22]

Another non-vote for SM#54

[hoopsguy]

By your timestamp, I mean the time that is associated with last activity. There were two separate times between 6:30 and 7:00 (about 6:45 and 6:55) that your profile showed you viewing this thread with different times.

Were you cooking? I have no idea. Was someone else on your computer? Who knows. I'm putting out what I observed in the last half hour as I was waiting for a vote to switch sides. I'm sorry if you don't feel that my findings are particularly flattering to you.

[RealDeal]

Sweet vindication. I'll be interested in hearing Blade's explanation.

[hoopsguy]

I would have been more interested in seeing you alive tomorrow, Real. Your vote for yourself is what has you dead at this point.

Would you have switched your vote if you had been here before 7PM? Or would you have left it on yourself so you could continue to vent about how dumb Blade is? It wasn't a whole lot of fun trying to convince people not to vote for you when you were the villager (not wolf or sorceror) that I wanted to see voted off the island.

[kingfc22]

Sweet vindication. I'll be interested in hearing Blade's explanation.
If you are a villager wanting the villagers to win, then it was pretty stupid for you NOT to change your vote to Raiders to save yourself.

[Peregrine]

Hey guys, posting this real quick from a WiFi setup.

Near the end of the day, but before the deadline, the Ring of Wisdom spoke, voting for Raiders Army. Sorry I couldn't post it earlier, but I can't be on 24/7.

That brings the voting to:

kingfc22 - ardent
RealDeal - Eaglesfan27, RealDeal, Raiders Army, Coffee Warlord, Schmidty
Eaglesfan27 - Mr. Wednesday
ardent - MrBug708
Raiders Army - Vince, hoopsguy, kingfc22, Sndvls, Ring


Given that it's pretty unfair to spring a tying vote on you guys at the last minute, I will allow voting to remain open for another 40 minutes or so until 9 eastern, in case anyone changes their minds. I'll check back later and post final results when I get a chance.

[Schmidty]

By your timestamp, I mean the time that is associated with last activity. There were two separate times between 6:30 and 7:00 (about 6:45 and 6:55) that your profile showed you viewing this thread with different times.

Were you cooking? I have no idea. Was someone else on your computer? Who knows. I'm putting out what I observed in the last half hour as I was waiting for a vote to switch sides. I'm sorry if you don't feel that my findings are particularly flattering to you.

Don't be sorry, as I don't particularly care. :)

[hoopsguy]

The ring rocks.

[hoopsguy]

Real, Schmidty, Eagles (if still here) - any buyers remorse on those early votes?

[RealDeal]

Let me die. The Shakespearian tragedy into which I have been drawn should be allowed to complete.

[Schmidty]

Real, Schmidty, Eagles (if still here) - any buyers remorse on those early votes?

No, not really, but your fervor is starting to raise my eyebrows....

Could you be in with RealDeal? Hmmmmm....

[Eaglesfan27]

Real, Schmidty, Eagles (if still here) - any buyers remorse on those early votes?
With what RealDeal is posting now, no.

[kingfc22]

Let me die. The Shakespearian tragedy into which I have been drawn should be allowed to complete.
You are trying WAY too hard to try and save Raiders.

[hoopsguy]

Peregrine, if RealDeal turns out to be a villager can I play the remainder of this game under protest? :mad: That usually works out pretty well in baseball games ...

I would expect the wolves to make the same request if he turns out to be a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty - by all means turn up the heat on me if RealDeal is a werewolf. I will have earned it.

I'm much more convinced that Raiders is a wolf than I am that RealDeal is a villager. But I think it is better than 50% likely Real is a villager who doesn't give a damn about the villagers winning. And I think it is just about 0% chance that Real is the sorceror.

[hoopsguy]

Also, if RealDeal is a werewolf it means that at least one of you/Eagles is not an enemy to the village.

Wolves - Raiders, RealDeal
Sorcerers - one

I just don't think that is going to be the scenario. I've been wrong once already (Digamma) so it is entirely possible I'm wrong again.

As it stands right now there is no lynching tonight and we have to go through this again over the weekend, minus one villager.

[Eaglesfan27]

I freely admit I might be wrong about RealDeal. However, quite honestly with his current attitude, I believe he is a detriment to the villagers even if he is a villager.

[hoopsguy]

It is hard for me to try and twist your arm into voting for someone that won't vote to save himself.

I'm just hoping that the other wolf is even more pissed with him than I am right now.

[Eaglesfan27]

It is hard for me to try and twist your arm into voting for someone that won't vote to save himself.

I'm just hoping that the other wolf is even more pissed with him than I am right now.

Hmmm? The other wolf?

I don't understand that.

[Eaglesfan27]

You understand my confusion? That phrasing suggests that you are a wolf. I don't think you are, but that is curious phrasing.

[Schmidty]

Hmmm? The other wolf?

I don't understand that.

Yeah. Odd choice of words.

Hoopsguy is VERY active, we can say that for sure.....

[Eaglesfan27]

Or perhaps I'm just really tired and mis-reading that.

[hoopsguy]

There are two wolves. If RealDeal turns out to be a wolf, then the other wolf (Raiders is my vehement claim for that role) would be fuming that he is now alone because RealDeal voted for himself.

It stinks out loud that a villager would basically marginalize himself in mid-game. But it is even worse if a wolf would do it since they always have big numbers against them.

[hoopsguy]

Hoopsguy is VERY active, we can say that for sure.....


I think that is pretty consistent with my werewolf play in the past. And I think we (collectively) are making a big mistake giving Raiders another night to roam.

Schmidty - do you think Raiders is a werewolf? Eagles has conceded he thinks he is but I don't recall a comment from you on Raiders since Vince and I tag-teamed him with the Notebook/Coat info.

[Superman=#54]

Vote Raiders Army

[kingfc22]

Vote Raiders Army
http://dynamic.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Eaglesfan27]

I hope RealDeal doesn't have any lethal items to kill any of us with tonight. I also hope we are right about Raiders Army being a werewolf.

[Schmidty]

I think that is pretty consistent with my werewolf play in the past. And I think we (collectively) are making a big mistake giving Raiders another night to roam.

Schmidty - do you think Raiders is a werewolf? Eagles has conceded he thinks he is but I don't recall a comment from you on Raiders since Vince and I tag-teamed him with the Notebook/Coat info.

Like I said before: I flat out admit that I have no idea as to who the werewolf/ves is/are. I think there's a good chance that Raiders or RealDeal is a wolf, but I also think there's a good chance that the wolf is someone nobody suspects. I actually have a gut feeling that it's someone floating beneath the radar, but I have no evidence to support that.

[hoopsguy]

Eagles, build me a case where Raiders gets the Coat without being a wolf.

I confirm that I passed the Notebook to Vince.
Vince used the Notebook to detect the Coat.
RealDeal says he passed the Coat to Henry.
Henry is dead, wolves get his item.

The sorcerer does not know who the wolves are. So you would have to think that Real, Vince, and I are playing together to set up this little drama to frame Raiders.

Or you can believe that at least Vince and I are playing it straight, regardless of your thoughts on RealDeal.

Finally, if RealDeal is a wolf then why would he pass the Coat of Arms last night? To give it to Raiders when Real was on the lynching block - so he could be lynched in one day instead of two? Does that sound like a wolf play?

[hoopsguy]

It's a bird! It's a plane! It's .... Superman=#54!

[Eaglesfan27]

Eagles, build me a case where Raiders gets the Coat without being a wolf.

I confirm that I passed the Notebook to Vince.
Vince used the Notebook to detect the Coat.
RealDeal says he passed the Coat to Henry.
Henry is dead, wolves get his item.

The sorcerer does not know who the wolves are. So you would have to think that Real, Vince, and I are playing together to set up this little drama to frame Raiders.

Or you can believe that at least Vince and I are playing it straight, regardless of your thoughts on RealDeal.

Finally, if RealDeal is a wolf then why would he pass the Coat of Arms last night? To give it to Raiders when Real was on the lynching block - so he could be lynched in one day instead of two? Does that sound like a wolf play?
I've already said that I think Raiders is a wolf. Since, I reviewed the rules and realized that the passing phase occurs before eating, there is no other explaination if you and vince are telling the truth. I think you are. I think Raiders is a wolf. I'm fine with him being lynched tonight, but I stuck to my guns because in a previous vote, I allowed someone to change my mind and it was a very costly mistake. I still think Raiders is a freaking crazy wolf and should be the next to die, if he doesn't die before Raiders. I'm just afraid he might have lethal items to kill us with tonight while we try to kill Raiders and can't do so because of the coat.

[hoopsguy]

Looking at my argument, I guess that Vince could be a wolf and I passed him the Notebook. He is now outing Raiders, who is a villager I suspected. That is a scenario I can concoct where this turns out wrong.

He could be telling the truth about Raiders ending up with the item because Real passed it to him in the night. And it would take us two days to lynch Raiders, who in this scenario is an innocent villager, while the wolves eat each night.

But you have to trust someone - I've thrown my lot behind Vince.

[Eaglesfan27]

Err, I meant in a previous game, not a previous vote in this game.

[Eaglesfan27]

Alright I am tired, I meant I think RealDeal is a crazy wolf. Not Raiders. I think he is a wolf, but he has been generally shrewd.

[Raiders Army]

Wow. A lot happened while I watched that movie and the storm passed.

[Raiders Army]

As I read this, it's too late to appeal to anyone. I'm too tired at this point to argue, so I'll wait until tomorrow morning to defend myself.

[hoopsguy]

I'll wait until tomorrow morning to defend myself

Yep, he has the Coat.

[hoopsguy]

In my Post #1154 scenario where I tried to concoct a scenario where Raiders is innocent this would imply that Real is a wolf who lied about his pass to Henry, instead passing it to an innocent Raiders. He would then need Vince to say that he used the Notebook - perhaps Vince was converted to sorcerer last night after I passed it? Or was a wolf when I passed it to him? Then can only count on this play if Vince is now evil. And if Vince is the Sorceror then he doesn't know who the wolves are, so they could not have talked about this strategy.

But does anyone think that Real is playing that type of game with his 'Kill me' attitude? And drawing all kinds of attention to himself yesterday in the Blade dust-up?

I'm having to work really hard to come up with any scenarios for Raiders. Maybe he will have a better argument to save himself tomorrow morning.

[RealDeal]

I hope RealDeal doesn't have any lethal items to kill any of us with tonight. I also hope we are right about Raiders Army being a werewolf.

I have no items, and I have one silver piece. I have no desire to hurt the villager and want them to win. As you have seen, I have given all the information I know to help them, and it all is true. I want to die to prove my innocence, but I want the villagers to win, and I think I have helped them throughout the game except for the Blade things (and I honestly thought he was a wolf) and with asking to die now so I can be proved correct.

My voting history shows someone who was trying to do the right thing. I was not the member of this team trying to bring the team down. Blade was. Please let me die this turn.

[Blade6119]

I was not the member of this team trying to bring the team down. Blade was.

Honestly, play the game but stop bloody attacking me...its really tactless and disrespectful after i was proven to be a villager...i thought we agreed to end this like 10 pages back, but you keep at it...
:redface:

[hoopsguy]

RealDeal - the rest of the villagers are trying to kill wolves, not get themselves run out of the game.

Make you a deal - if you are a villager, and play the game trying to help the villagers, then we'll go ahead and play one extra round after getting the wolves so we can all lynch you then. If Peregrine isn't up for that then I'll start another thread where we can lynch you. We can even let the dead people back in for the event - except Blade, out of respect for everything you've done for our cause.

[jeff061]

RealDeal - the rest of the villagers are trying to kill wolves, not get themselves run out of the game.

Make you a deal - if you are a villager, and play the game trying to help the villagers, then we'll go ahead and play one extra round after getting the wolves so we can all lynch you then. If Peregrine isn't up for that then I'll start another thread where we can lynch you. We can even let the dead people back in for the event - except Blade, out of respect for everything you've done for our cause.

hehe, nice.

[Eaglesfan27]

I also found that post quite funny :)

[RealDeal]

I have never mislead the villagers. Every post I have made is true or I believed it to be true at the time I made it. I have never taken any actions with passing or not passing items that would purposefully harm my team. I did pass items to Henry, but I didn't know he would die. I do want to be vindicated, but I have never once claimed to be a wolf. I would have been suspected whether I had asked to be killed or not. But that is not my fault.

Edit: to be clear, I don't want to die for the sake of dying. I want to be shown a villager to be validated in the fact that I was singled out from the start for reasons that were bad faith or not objectively reasonable even within the context of the game.

If people will acknowledge, at a minimum, that Blade's reasoning for fingering me at the beginning was, at best, loopy, then I am happy.

[Peregrine]

Superman casts the deciding vote in favor of Raiders Army. Raiders Army has the Coat of Arms, which activates, so there is no lynch tonight!

Night 5

Lathum - Lynched Day 2 - villager
kingfc22
sundvls
blade6119 - Lynched Day 4 - villager
Coffee Warlord
Henry296 - killed Night 4 - villager
BrianD - killed Night 3 - villager
digamma - Lynched Day 3 - werewolf
eaglesfan27
hoopsguy
fouts - Poisoned and died Night 3 - villager
schmidty
dubb93 - killed Night 2 - villager
vince
Qwikshot - Lynched Day 1 - Sorceror
RealDeal
Jeff061 - Killed Night 1 - Sorceror
Raiders Army
Mr. Wednesday
MrBug708
Superman=#54
ardent enthusiast


Night actions in by tomorrow morning, we'll push back the next lynch deadline to Monday night at player request. I'll post the results of the night actions tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

I have never mislead the villagers. Every post I have made is true or I believed it to be true at the time I made it. I have never taken any actions with passing or not passing items that would purposefully harm my team. I did pass items to Henry, but I didn't know he would die. I do want to be vindicated, but I have never once claimed to be a wolf. I would have been suspected whether I had asked to be killed or not. But that is not my fault.

Edit: to be clear, I don't want to die for the sake of dying. I want to be shown a villager to be validated in the fact that I was singled out from the start for reasons that were bad faith or not objectively reasonable even within the context of the game.

If people will acknowledge, at a minimum, that Blade's reasoning for fingering me at the beginning was, at best, loopy, then I am happy.

I hope you're insane ssssensssitivity is gamesmanship, because if not, you are one sad dude.

[RealDeal]

Superman casts the deciding vote in favor of Raiders Army. Raiders Army has the Coat of Arms, which activates, so there is no lynch tonight!

RA is clearly a wolf.

[Poli]

Something give me a bad feeling that all my talk about trusting AE that he was converted last night.
No conversion here. Same old Ardent.

[Poli]

Can someone give me a Cliff notes version of the past 8 hours?

[Eaglesfan27]

Can someone give me a Cliff notes version of the past 8 hours?
Vince and Hoopsguy showed that Raiders Army had received the Coat last night. Presumably, he received it from eating a villager. We had a split vote between Raiders Army and RealDeal. I think some of us voted for RealDeal because he was acting so suicidal and odd. Also, for at least myself, I didn't want to waste a vote tonight and give the wolves a better chance of using a lethal item on us. I still RealDeal is probably the other wolf. Eventually, Superman broke the tie at the last minute after Peregrine extended it (due to the late announcement that the ring had cast a vote for Raiders to tie it up.)

Finally, Raiders was lynched, except he wasn't because he does have the Coat. The coat saved him, and now we likely all have reason to lynch him tomorrow (unless he can come up with a very convincing explanation of how he acquired that coat.)

Those are the key items, IMHO.

[Poli]

Vince and Hoopsguy showed that Raiders Army had received the Coat last night. Presumably, he received it from eating a villager. We had a split vote between Raiders Army and RealDeal. I think some of us voted for RealDeal because he was acting so suicidal and odd. Also, for at least myself, I didn't want to waste a vote tonight and give the wolves a better chance of using a lethal item on us. I still RealDeal is probably the other wolf. Eventually, Superman broke the tie at the last minute after Peregrine extended it (due to the late announcement that the ring had cast a vote for Raiders to tie it up.)

Finally, Raiders was lynched, except he wasn't because he does have the Coat. The coat saved him, and now we likely all have reason to lynch him tomorrow (unless he can come up with a very convincing explanation of how he acquired that coat.)

Those are the key items, IMHO.
Interesting, henry had RA in his circle of trust, IIRC.

Vote Raiders Army :)

[Poli]

Yeah, I know I can't vote yet. It's out there for the intimidation factor.

[Eaglesfan27]

LOL :)

I'm all for voting Raiders tomorrow unless he has a very convincing explanation. Since the coat is gone, my resistance to voting for him is gone too.

I still think RealDeal must die after that, barring convincing evidence of someone else being the "other" wolf.

[hoopsguy]

No argument here, Eagles. But we do have some time for night actions to kick in and to see what else can be stirred up.

In the absence of good candidates I'm all for positioning RealDeal as the next-best available option. Heck, RealDeal is up for himself in this role.

[Vince]

Did anyone notice anything with post #1059? I was trying to be subtle.

Raiders Army -- Well Other Leads Fail me.

I've been trying to follow up on any sort of lead possible, and I keep coming up with question marks. I still don't know if subtlety or brazen revealing is the way to go -- I think I'm leaning towards subtlety right now.

[MrBug708]

Talk about a pretty big error if not true....

[Vince]

Talk about a pretty big error if not true....
I would love to hear a scenario (outside of me lying) where it isn't true. Based upon what I have seen, it is irrefutable that Raiders Army is a wolf. I just wish I had been able to draw out the other wolf first. I figured with any chance that I die this evening, my knowlege needed to be put out there, or it would have been a crippling blow to the villagers.

[MrBug708]

Vince, why the hell are you up right now? Beer Pong? Pretty coherent post if true...

Im sure someone is going to end up dead...*looks at Vince and his fangs sticking out*

[Poli]

Our beloved moderator must have had a heck of a night. That or Raiders Army killed us all.

[Coffee Warlord]

Wake up at the asscrack of dawn for no reason, and the entertainment hasn't begun yet! Bah! :)

[Peregrine]

Ugh, just rolled out of bed. Give me a while to look through the stack of PMs I have and I'll post the night action results (besides the result of me getting pretty drunk.)

[Poli]

I win the prize.

[Raiders Army]

Did anyone notice anything with post #1059? I was trying to be subtle.
:rolleyes:

Alrighty then. I was appalled yesterday when I received the Coat of Arms. After RealDeal said he gave it to henry, and then henry died, I knew I was set up.

How exactly did I lie when I said I gave the saber to henry? Because I received the coat of arms last night? Come on. Vince, you're trying to mislead us, and now I know you're really setting me up. And you're setting me up quite well. Well, now it looks as if I'm a wolf, but it's just your say so. Why did you go through the "ploy" of letting me say what I had so you could exonerate me? That seems really weak if you knew yesterday morning that I had the coat of arms and you thought I was a wolf.

I see that everyone fell for it. Oh well. I'll catch up with you guys next game, and good luck against the wolves. I tried to do my part, but I guess it's a lost cause. I'll try and remain a little quieter next time.

[Peregrine]

The night is an anxious one, as terrifying screams that seem to last half the night are heard. In the morning, RealDeal is found, not so much torn apart as shredded. He was an innocent villager.

Day 6

Lathum - Lynched Day 2 - villager
kingfc22
sundvls
blade6119 - Lynched Day 4 - villager
Coffee Warlord
Henry296 - killed Night 4 - villager
BrianD - killed Night 3 - villager
digamma - Lynched Day 3 - werewolf
eaglesfan27
hoopsguy
fouts - Poisoned and died Night 3 - villager
schmidty
dubb93 - killed Night 2 - villager
vince
Qwikshot - Lynched Day 1 - Sorceror
RealDeal - Killed Night 5 - villager
Jeff061 - Killed Night 1 - Sorceror
Raiders Army
Mr. Wednesday
MrBug708
Superman=#54
ardent enthusiast

Lynch votes due by Monday night at 8

[Raiders Army]

Great. This gets better. Vince covers up his tracks so RealDeal can't back me up....then again, not like anyone would believe him (or me) now.

[hoopsguy]

Why would RealDeal lie about who he gave the coat to if he was a villager?

Even when I've tried to come up with scenarios where you aren't a wolf it depended on RealDeal lying.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think our path is clear today.

Vote Raiders Army

[hoopsguy]

Would take something overwhelming to steer me in another direction.

Vote Raiders Army

[Raiders Army]

My case against Vince since these posts are buried in the pages. Note that I put the post # by them and I quoted him ENTIRELY:

Post #1004
So you are the notebook man? Between you and Bug, we've got an awful lot of "I know xxx" going around.
Here Vince says he doesn't know who has the notebook.

Post #1073
So now the Wolves have a sabre of duels AND the coat of arms (if RealDeal is to be believed)? Ay...what a disastrous night. Give me a minute to update my info here, and I'll see what I can do about clearing you, RA.
Clears me. ROTFLMAO. After he posts this, I go home from work thinking "hunky dory".


Post #1086
Well, I'm running late, and I agree with hoopsguy -- this is a pivotal vote. I wanted to try to figure out who the second werewolf was before posting this...but since I'm on the way out and I might be killed tonight, it needs to be put out in the open.

I own the Notebook. It was passed to me yesterday, and I used it that night to track the Coat of Arms. This is where things get interesting.

RealDeal is telling the truth -- he passed the Coat of Arms to Henry. Henry was killed, so the coat of arms was lost to the wolves, however...the notebook also allows me to see where the item ended up...

...which is with Raiders Army.

Even though he has the coat of arms and it's a wasted vote, I haven't been able to draw out the other wolf, so I vote for Raiders Army.

I am going to pass the notebook on to someone who I think is a villager tonight, so that in case I die, it remains in the game -- it is a quite valuable item, in my opinion.

Good luck gentlemen, and godspeed.
Here he says he has the notebook and he knows I got the coat. He points the finger to me so he can knock me off. Very good ploy...no, in fact, it's an excellent plan. You got everyone to pile on me in the last hours when I left work. Nice pick of the guy who wanted to frame as well. I post a lot, but didn't yesterday due to my workload...of course, you didn't know I wouldn't post a lot yesteday, but my numerous postings in this thread make me a suspect.

If I could shake your hand I would. Great job.

[Raiders Army]

There are two wolves. If RealDeal turns out to be a wolf, then the other wolf (Raiders is my vehement claim for that role) would be fuming that he is now alone because RealDeal voted for himself.

It stinks out loud that a villager would basically marginalize himself in mid-game. But it is even worse if a wolf would do it since they always have big numbers against them.
Yeah, this argument is really valid now. I was absolutely fuming that RealDeal voted for himself. That's why I "turned" on my fellow wolf.

/sarcasm

[Raiders Army]

Would take something overwhelming to steer me in another direction.

Vote Raiders Army
Please see your quote above. Do you think your logic may be flawed somewhat? I guess RealDeal's death was good for me in the fact that I can point out you're wrong this time. :)

[hoopsguy]

Are you suggesting he doesn't have the Notebook? If so, how would he have known that you had the coat? RealDeal - a now confirmed villager - said he passed it to Henry.

For us to believe you we have to accept that
1.) A known villager lied about who he passed his item to
2.) A wolf would have knowledge of you having the item

Seems a lot easier to believe you are the bad guy.

[hoopsguy]

Raiders, I spent about 50 posts last night saying I thought you were a wolf and RealDeal was a village. The quote you pulled in Post #1192 is way out of context - was responding to someone who thought you guys might both be wolves.

[Raiders Army]

Are you suggesting he doesn't have the Notebook? If so, how would he have known that you had the coat? RealDeal - a now confirmed villager - said he passed it to Henry.

For us to believe you we have to accept that
1.) A known villager lied about who he passed his item to
2.) A wolf would have knowledge of you having the item

Seems a lot easier to believe you are the bad guy.
I'm not saying he doesn't have the notebook. Obviously he does. RealDeal said he passed it to henry.

Do you see a pattern here?

henry killed--can corroborate speaking to me via the robe
RealDeal killed--can corroborate passing the coat to me (although who knows what he would say)

The wolves killed henry. The wolves killed RealDeal. If Vince is a wolf, wouldn't he be the perfect person to frame me?

[Raiders Army]

Raiders, I spent about 50 posts last night saying I thought you were a wolf and RealDeal was a village. The quote you pulled in Post #1192 is way out of context - was responding to someone who thought you guys might both be wolves.
I don't understand how I pulled it out of context. I quoted you completely. Please elucidate.

[hoopsguy]

Very well. The post you quoted is #1145.

We had been extended the extra forty-five minutes because of the late-breaking tie. Schmidty, EaglesFan, and RealDeal were all online. Each of them had a vote on RealDeal that I was trying to get switched to you. RealDeal responded that he was not switching his vote off of himself.

At that point Eagles said he was pretty sure you were a wolf but he thought that RealDeal might be one as well. And that even if he was not that RealDeal wasn't an asset to the villagers.

Here was one of my replies, Post #1137
Schmidty - by all means turn up the heat on me if RealDeal is a werewolf. I will have earned it.

I'm much more convinced that Raiders is a wolf than I am that RealDeal is a villager. But I think it is better than 50% likely Real is a villager who doesn't give a damn about the villagers winning. And I think it is just about 0% chance that Real is the sorceror.

I then said this in Post #1140
It is hard for me to try and twist your arm into voting for someone that won't vote to save himself.

I'm just hoping that the other wolf is even more pissed with him than I am right now.

Some conversation ensued between Eagles, Schmidty, and I about what I was implying with the above quote. That is where I gave the quote you list about the two of you possibly being wolves. But anyone who takes the time to read the posts from yesterday afternoon/evening will see that you are really reaching here.

[hoopsguy]

Assuming that Raiders is lynched and that he is a wolf, the biggest threat to the villagers going forward is the sorceror being converted to a wolf.

The sorceror doesn't have a way to accumulate the six silver other than by not having items. So the remaining wolf will have to get silver through kills and pass it to him.

Again, assuming that Raiders is a wolf and we are down to our last remaining wolf I think it makes sense that anyone who has been accumulating silver make a purchase after the lynching. Better to give the last wolf an item rather than silver at this point. Since the purchase goes down during the activation phase, and that follows the eat phase, this won't help for the next night. But it should going forward.

I'm less sure about this strategy if there are still two wolves after the Monday lynching.

[Eaglesfan27]

I'm a little surprised that the wolves ate RealDeal, but I think the evidence is strong.

I vote Raiders Army.

[RealDeal]

Well, how about that? I was a villager. I'm not sure why they did it, but I thank the wolves for vindicating me. Blade has some explaining to do. Good luck villagers!

[Raiders Army]

Some conversation ensued between Eagles, Schmidty, and I about what I was implying with the above quote. That is where I gave the quote you list about the two of you possibly being wolves. But anyone who takes the time to read the posts from yesterday afternoon/evening will see that you are really reaching here.
Reaching for what? Reaching out that your quote that I used is dead wrong in what it said. Every quote that you used was before the quote I used.

I'm not saying that this should exonerate me, etc. All I'm saying is that your logic in that quote is incorrect. You can't even concede that?

Your words are confusing to other people as they didn't know what you meant when you said:

I'm just hoping that the other wolf is even more pissed with him than I am right now.

Jeez...You're getting what you wanted. Me lynched. You can't even admit that you were wrong?

[hoopsguy]

I'll concede that I've been wrong a few times this game - that is pretty public record. And I'll concede that I've been flat played if you are anything other than a wolf.

[kingfc22]

Blade has some explaining to do.
Hey Jackass, give it up already. Wish I was the wolf that shut you up and booted you out of this game. Good riddance.

[RealDeal]

Hey Jackass, give it up already. Wish I was the wolf that shut you up and booted you out of this game. Good riddance.

"wish I was" ;)

[Raiders Army]

I'll concede that I've been wrong a few times this game - that is pretty public record. And I'll concede that I've been flat played if you are anything other than a wolf.
Well, your apology doesn't help me after I'm dead. :)

Guess I rolled snake eyes again this game, eh?

[Fouts]

Well, how about that? I was a villager. I'm not sure why they did it, but I thank the wolves for vindicating me. Blade has some explaining to do. Good luck villagers!

I really don't understand voting for yourself is you are a villager. As a wolf, I have seen it as a ploy. Killing yourself off doesn't help the village, but then again, letting a villager die to poison is retarded. What was I saying again? Oh yeah, voting for yourself is bad form. :)

[jeff061]

Dude, he needed some ego stroki......err he needed to be vindicated.

[Vince]

Sort of surprised I'm still alive, but I guess that's RA's only defense, so it kind of makes sense. However, he kills his own argument with his choice of victim last night.

Alrighty then. I was appalled yesterday when I received the Coat of Arms. After RealDeal said he gave it to henry, and then henry died, I knew I was set up.
The only way for this to have been a set-up is for two things to be true:

1) I am a wolf, and lying.
2) RealDeal is helping me out, by backing up my story.

Well, RealDeal is dead, and he was neither wolf nor sorceror. So I guess I'm ok. The only way RA ends up with the Coat of Arms outside of being a wolf is by using the Gloves of the Thief -- however, the power of the notebook explicitly states that the user of the notebook will not be told of a use of the Gloves, that they will think it's with the original owner.

The only problem I have with today is that tonight there will be another Werewolf...which isn't good.

Right now it's 9-2-1.
After today, it'll be 9-1-1.
After tonight, it'll be 8-2.

We're starting to run out of time...and I don't think we have much of a lead on ANY of the remaining players :/

[hoopsguy]

Vince, I'm not convinced they have another one yet:

Last night they would have passed their silver - would they have had six to pass already after spending six on the book two nights earlier?
The upcoming night the sorceror buys the book.
After that they activate the book.

So I think we have at least one more day - maybe two if we are lucky.

[hoopsguy]

I also think there are some voting patterns to be ascertained from yesterday - I'll spend more time on that once we see Raiders sprout fangs while hanging in the air.

[Schmidty]

Well, how about that? I was a villager. I'm not sure why they did it, but I thank the wolves for vindicating me. Blade has some explaining to do. Good luck villagers!

Do us all a favor and never play in a Werewolf game again. In fact, I hope the people that run the games ban you from future games. I think every single person that plays would support such a move.

Pulling no punches: You "played" like a man with a 2-inch penis. Go vindicate/prove your manhood somewhere else.

[Schmidty]

By the way:

Vote Vince

Just to keep things interesting. :)

(edited to bold)

[MrBug708]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but here is what I've found.

I started with the RoW and voted once, for Digamma. The other two days I wasnt around and didnt want risk being exposed. Then it was stolen from me and the person who voted for Blade at the same time Vi nce did, then Vince changed his vote.

It was also said that RD was a wolf and that he had the coat of arms. I tried to steal the CoA from RD and he didn't have it. So I stole whatever Vince had and it was the book of the detective. I think Vince is rather suspicious. Ardent knew I was passed the robe as well, which I'm not sure how to make of it. I dont know who has the RoW, but I think Vince is a little suspcious IMO

Vote - Vince

Sorry buddy...

[Vince]

Well, since MrBug is going to mention it...

...I kept the Notebook last night, and looked for the Book of the Damned. There is another in the game, but it didn't move, so I don't know who has it.

Kyle, I don't understand how you think I'm suspicious when your night action proved that I did have the Notebook. You tried to steal the Coat from RealDeal, but he had already passed it -- hence the nothing.

I don't understand the two votes for me...Schmidty's just being ridiculous (:)), and MrBug is...I don't know, confused? Maybe a sorceror?

[Schmidty]

Well, since MrBug is going to mention it...

...I kept the Notebook last night, and looked for the Book of the Damned. There is another in the game, but it didn't move, so I don't know who has it.

Kyle, I don't understand how you think I'm suspicious when your night action proved that I did have the Notebook. You tried to steal the Coat from RealDeal, but he had already passed it -- hence the nothing.

I don't understand the two votes for me...Schmidty's just being ridiculous (:)), and MrBug is...I don't know, confused? Maybe a sorceror?

Being totally honest, I see some of the points against you, but the main reason I'm voting for you is in the case that RA is innocent (maybe a long-shot), I don't want to look bad. :)

[Vince]

Did you think of the possibility of you looking bad if he IS a wolf? We're kind of short on suspects after him, and you and MrBug are looking like 1 and 2 in that case.

Oh, and I'll corroborate Kyle stealing the Notebook from me...it was stolen.

[hoopsguy]

Here are my thoughts on Vince:

If Vince was converted to a sorceror, he would be trying to help the wolves. But he wouldn't know who they are. Do you think he would have set up Raiders, knowing he had the coat, if he thought that Raiders might be a wolf?

We know that RealDeal wasn't a wolf. All indications are that he played the game in a straight-forward manner with everything except his fixation on Blade. So why would he have lied about giving the Coat to Henry (as a villager) if he in fact gave it to Raiders Army?

If Vince is a wolf, then why bother swinging the votes away from RealDeal yesterday when he was on his way to a sure lynching? We now know that RealDeal was a villager. If Vince is making this play as a wolf then he is calling quite a bit of attention to himself.

Ardent knew I was passed the robe as well

How does this fit into this? If you were stealing you were using the Gloves.
Day 1: Ring
Day 2: Ring
Day 3: Ring
Day 4: Gloves
Day 5: Gloves
Day 6: Notebook

As far as the Robe, here is the info I know on it:
Day 1: Henry (chatted with Digamma)
Day 2: Henry
Day 3: Henry (chatted with Raiders)
Day 4: ???
Day 5: ???
Day 6: ???

Are you saying that AE had the robe at some point? If this was brought up at some earlier point in the game then my apologies - after 1200+ posts I'm missing a detail every once in awhile.

Finally, my thoughts are that the person who had the Ring yesterday is on the side of the villagers. I have no desire to post my thoughts on who has this since I don't want that information potentially being shared with the wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Wish Henry was still around and had the Robe - would just ask him to go talk to someone again. One known wolf conversation, another suspected wolf conversation.

Did Henry chat with AE on Day 2?

[Vince]

Oh, and because I forgot to do it before...

I vote Raiders Army.

[MrBug708]

I think for the time being, I'll stay suspicious about Vince. I have questions about him and Hoopsguy for being so vocal yet seemingly pretty safe from the wolves despite all their supposed genuine interests in helping the village. ;)

unvote - Vince
vote - Raiders Army

[Schmidty]

Did you think of the possibility of you looking bad if he IS a wolf? We're kind of short on suspects after him, and you and MrBug are looking like 1 and 2 in that case.

Oh, and I'll corroborate Kyle stealing the Notebook from me...it was stolen.

Honestly Vince, I look bad no matter what happens in these games. :)

[Poli]

How does this fit into this? If you were stealing you were using the Gloves.
Day 1: Ring
Day 2: Ring
Day 3: Ring
Day 4: Gloves
Day 5: Gloves
Day 6: Notebook

As far as the Robe, here is the info I know on it:
Day 1: Henry (chatted with Digamma)
Day 2: Henry
Day 3: Henry (chatted with Raiders)
Day 4: ???
Day 5: ???
Day 6: ???

Are you saying that AE had the robe at some point? If this was brought up at some earlier point in the game then my apologies - after 1200+ posts I'm missing a detail every once in awhile.
I'll paraphrase who henry talked to. Day 1. Digamma. 2, Eaglesfan27. 3. Raiders Army 4. Ardent Enthusiast.

At which point he told me he was passing it to Mr. Bug708. He told me that he was passing it to him near the end of our time period.

Just to make sure my vote counts, since I cast it too early:

VOTE Raiders Army

[Raiders Army]

The only way for this to have been a set-up is for two things to be true:

1) I am a wolf, and lying.
2) RealDeal is helping me out, by backing up my story.

1) Well, you are a wolf, and why would anybody be surprised if a wolf lies?
2)RealDeal doesn't need to help you out. How did he back your story? Also, we all know how flaky he is, so you used that to your advantage.

Setup complete.

[Poli]

Anyone offhand have the voting tally thus far?

[Raiders Army]

Anyone offhand have the voting tally thus far?
Not that it matters tonight...

BTW, yesterday, I didn't understand your whole, "coincidence" with the word sigh. It took me a while to figure out what the same word we said was. Why was that interesting? Gotta ask that question before I'm lynched. :)

[Vince]

1) Well, you are a wolf, and why would anybody be surprised if a wolf lies?
2)RealDeal doesn't need to help you out. How did he back your story? Also, we all know how flaky he is, so you used that to your advantage.

Setup complete.
Actually, RealDeal DOES need to help me out. Unless I can magically set you up by myself...here's what you posted:

Alrighty then. I was appalled yesterday when I received the Coat of Arms. After RealDeal said he gave it to henry, and then henry died, I knew I was set up..

RealDeal said he gave it to henry AFTER henry died. So it's not like I could have used this information to my advantage by killing henry, if I were a wolf. I don't understand how you think I can set you up by myself...if you would care to explain your proposed set-up that does not include RealDeal, that would probably help those who are considering voting for me.

[Raiders Army]

There's no way I can sway votes Vince...I'm just trying to reveal you for later.

Obviously you can't set up me by yourself, you took advantage of RealDeal's...eccentricity...to set me up...

At least by drawing this line, people will lynch you after I'm lynched and we'll be down one more wolf. I just want to know who your partner is...and hoopsguy is definitely at the top of my list.

If anyone can remember this after I'm lynched, I would appreciate it.

[Poli]

Just odd, Raiders. I use the word "sigh" a lot in my AOL IM conversations. :)

[Raiders Army]

Ah....I used sigh because I had a lot of work to do that day and it sucked.

[Coffee Warlord]

Busy at home, but I think it fairly obvious.

Vote Raiders Army

[Vince]

Anyone offhand have the voting tally thus far?
Raiders Army -- Mr. Wednesday, hoopsguy, Eaglesfan27, Vince, MrBug708, ardent enthusiast, Coffee Warlord

Vince -- Schmidty, MrBug708 (unvoted)

None -- SnDvls, kingfc22, Superman=#54

Right now I think the important thing is trying to figure out who the other wolf is. I'm going to ignore myself in this analysis, because I know I'm a villager -- you all don't have that luxury, so feel free to be as suspicious of me as you want.

Mr. Wednesday -- I'm pretty sure that he's a villager.
SnDvls -- I'm pretty sure that he's a villager.

Ardent enthusiast -- Fairly sure he's a villager -- might be the Sorceror.
Coffee Warlord -- Fairly sure he's a villager -- might be the Sorceror.

Superman=#54 -- Not sure at all.
kingfc22 -- Not sure at all.
hoopsguy -- Not sure at all.

MrBug and Schmidty -- I'm worried about these guys. I don't know what their motivation after my evidence is, so logically, I'm going to be concerned. Also, they voted for me...never a good way to get on someone's good side :) I really don't know what our next step is, though. We gotta start getting things right...

[hoopsguy]

Superman cast the deciding vote for Raiders (suspected wolf) against a non-wolf (RealDeal). Once we see that Raiders is in fact a wolf that will be good enough for me to consider him a non-wolf. And a less likely candidate for the sorceror, who I think would have been content to sit that last vote out at the end.

Once again, assuming that Raiders does turn out to be a wolf I would like to think that my strident pushing for him against the RealDeal vote would go a long ways towards proving my villager cred.

You left out EaglesFan from the analysis, as well as Raiders (for, I think, obvious reasons). What are your thoughts on him?

If/when Raiders is revealed to be a wolf then my attention will be turning to Eagles and Schmidty for their voting with RealDeal. More than with the other people, because they were online to see the case presented for Raiders that afternoon and had an opportunity to change their votes. I'm not arguing that they both are anti-villager, but I would be a little surprised if neither is.

If it does turn out that we've somehow messed up with Raiders then I'm going to have to turn up the heat on you as likely wolf/sorceror, Vince. But I don't think that is forthcoming ...

[Coffee Warlord]

Just to reconfirm here...next voting is tonight or monday?

[Eaglesfan27]

Superman cast the deciding vote for Raiders (suspected wolf) against a non-wolf (RealDeal). Once we see that Raiders is in fact a wolf that will be good enough for me to consider him a non-wolf. And a less likely candidate for the sorceror, who I think would have been content to sit that last vote out at the end.

Once again, assuming that Raiders does turn out to be a wolf I would like to think that my strident pushing for him against the RealDeal vote would go a long ways towards proving my villager cred.

You left out EaglesFan from the analysis, as well as Raiders (for, I think, obvious reasons). What are your thoughts on him?

If/when Raiders is revealed to be a wolf then my attention will be turning to Eagles and Schmidty for their voting with RealDeal. More than with the other people, because they were online to see the case presented for Raiders that afternoon and had an opportunity to change their votes. I'm not arguing that they both are anti-villager, but I would be a little surprised if neither is.

If it does turn out that we've somehow messed up with Raiders then I'm going to have to turn up the heat on you as likely wolf/sorceror, Vince. But I don't think that is forthcoming ...
I can't believe it would be held against me when I voted for RealDeal considering how truly erratic his behavior was. Of course, you two will be top of my list if Raiders isn't a wolf.

[MrBug708]

Let me get this straight

Not voting/posting = VIllager
Posting/voting = Wolf?

[Eaglesfan27]

Just to reconfirm here...next voting is tonight or monday?
I'm almost positive that it is Monday night (by the request of a few.)

[hoopsguy]

At this point in the game we are still in a position where it doesn't make sense for a wolf to make the false accusation with a seer device if Raiders is a wolf and we have their numbers down to 1+1. Someone has the Amulet of Seeing - if it is a villager who can vindicate some members of our group that would be very helpful. If it is a villager who can out a wolf, so much the better. If it is a wolf - well, they have been holding onto it instead of collecting silver which also helps our cause.

[hoopsguy]

Eagles, I'm definitely up for a better launching point for suspicion if you can point one out. That is why I would love to have some information arise from one of the seer devices.

[hoopsguy]

If somehow Raiders isn't a wolf, then I absolutely accept that I'll be a prime suspect for wolf. Conversely, if Raiders is a wolf I hope that I'll be moving towards the inner circle of trust for most villagers.

If Raiders isn't a wolf I won't pull a RealDeal and vote for myself the following day. I'll fight to not be lynched because I am a villager and losing another villager at the hands of vilalgers is generally is not a good thing.

[Mr. Wednesday]

If Raiders is not a wolf, I might have to change my vote in XII, since the only way that would be consistent with the respective stories we've seen would be if RealDeal lied about where he had passed the Coat of Arms. :p

[Superman=#54]

The reason I haven't posted much lately is that I have been really busy. Moving to a new place, and catching a few concerts. I just woke up after a long night last night. I'll be checking in more often now that I have more free time.

[Schmidty]

Fine, I'll change my vote. But if RA isn't a wolf, Vince is next on my list.

Unvote Vince

Vote Raiders Army

[Eaglesfan27]

Eagles, I'm definitely up for a better launching point for suspicion if you can point one out. That is why I would love to have some information arise from one of the seer devices.
Well I'd suggest we look at all voting patterns and note just the most recent vote. I was quick to kill every sorceror and wolf for the first few votes. I'm on call today, so I'm not sure I'll get to do a detailed analysis of everyone's votes for every day, but I'd suggest that we do that, rather than look at one day's vote.

Clearly, RealDeal messed up this game to an extent and I dare say some of us might have let our needle of doubt be pushed to voting for RealDeal just because he was so annoying.

[Vince]

Clearly, RealDeal messed up this game to an extent and I dare say some of us might have let our needle of doubt be pushed to voting for RealDeal just because he was so annoying.
Which is why I wonder why the wolves chose to kill him -- I'd have thought he'd be at least a decent candidate for us to lynch after RA. We have to take them where we can get them, I guess.

[Peregrine]

The Ring of Wisdom has spoken:

It casts a vote for Hoopsguy.

[Vince]

The Ring of Wisdom has spoken:

It casts a vote for Hoopsguy.
Huh? What is the point of this vote?

[Eaglesfan27]

Which is why I wonder why the wolves chose to kill him -- I'd have thought he'd be at least a decent candidate for us to lynch after RA. We have to take them where we can get them, I guess.
I agree too. That was very odd. Maybe they just found him so annoying that strategy was overruled?

[hoopsguy]

Just in case anyone was wondering if I hold the ring of wisdom ... I don't.

Eagles, even if you had an impeccable record early it doesn't mean a ton. The Real/Raiders was the first vote we have had where the wolves would have had to commit themselves; everything has been a runaway up to that point. Also, someone was converted to a sorceror - which means they could have a good voting record up until the last one.

I'm not saying you are wrong in suggesting we review the whole body of work when it comes to voting patterns. I'm just thinking that this last one is going to be more telling, when it is all said and done, than earlier votes.

Nor am I declaring that you are a wolf/sorcerer because you voted for RealDeal. He was a dividing force in this game, no doubt about it. But we have to look somewhere and I think we are missing the boat if we don't really scrutinize the decisions between Raiders/Real.

[Raiders Army]

Fine, I'll change my vote. But if RA isn't a wolf, Vince is next on my list.

Unvote Vince

Vote Raiders Army
At least we'll get a wolf one way or another...

I think this was Vince's big mistake. Why would you gamble so (relatively) early in the game to take one person out? This is what I think happened:

1. Vince says he thinks he may know who a wolf is, but is holding out to find out who the other one is.

2. When he sees the opportunity to frame me, he has to follow through on something to remain "legit". Somewhat of a Catch-22.

The gamble paid off, and now he's going to get lynched the night after I get lynched. The wolves are buying time people, and I wouldn't be surprised if they convert someone else as a sorceror or convert the sorceror to a wolf. At that point, it would be worth it to go 1 for 1, since he gets to eat once when I'm voted for with the coat, again when I get lynched, and yet again when he gets lynched.

Actually, he's getting a pretty good return on his death. 4 kills for 1 wolf. Not bad.